Week 14: The Picks are in!

By Kyle Magin
Going to be in attendance at the Nevada-Boise State game today with a share of the Mountain West title on the line and the last chance of seeing this pretty good rivalry for a while as the Broncos have decided to board the Titanic Big East. There are all sorts of great games today, so if it's shitty weather where you are, bundle up on the couch and grab your remote. Follow me at @kmagin50 on Instagram for some pics from the game.

Kyle says...
Last week: 2-2
This season: 25-18-1

Texas @ Kansas State -11
Texas looked anything but convincing in their loss to TCU, and I still think this is a rudderless ship. Optimus Klein, however, is making his last push for the Heisman that national pundits are seemingly more comfortable giving to Johnny Football, so I'd look for KSU to really step on the gas early. Wildcats cover. 

Boise @ Nevada +8.5
As I said, the Broncos line up today with a chance at a share of the Mountain West title on the line. There's nothing the Wolfpack and its faithful followers would love better than to sneeze in smurf soup as Boise heads for the exit, so look for a wild crowd in a nationally televised game. I'm not sure the Pack have enough to win—Boise specializes in limiting your possessions—but I think Chris Ault has enough to be great. Wolfpack cover. 

Alabama -7.5 vs. Georgia +7.5 (Atlanta)
Aaron Murray is by far the better quarterback than A.J. McCarron in the SEC title game in the Georgia Dome. But, I'd give the nod to Nick Saban's defense in preparing for the Dawgs. Bama's offense will go into management mode and win, but Georgia covers. 

Nebraska -3.5 vs. Wisconsin
Nebraska's offense is just so, so much more dynamic than Wisconsin's. The Badgers get bucked and Nebraska covers. 

Week 13: The picks are in!

By Kyle Magin

We're here at the end of things, this woefully short regular season. League titles have been sewed up or are about to be culminated, berths to lucrative bowls are on the line, and for the first time in 24 seasons, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish are standing on the precipice of a national title berth. Let's get to the day's slate, shall we?

Kyle says...

Last week: 1-3

This season: 23-16-1

Michigan @ Ohio State -4

The Buckeyes are playing angry this season, and I've every reason to expect that deadbeat father excellent motivator Urban Meyer is ready to test Michigan's line play on both sides of the ball. This will mean a lot of pressure on Devin Gardner/Denard Robinson in the pocket, and that hasn't worked so well for Michigan this year. The Buckeyes cover the spread.

Oregon @ Oregon State +10

The Beavers have been very solid on both sides of the ball this year and control time of possession very effectively. With Oregon's many injuries and limited possessions to work with, Oregon State beats the spread in a knock-down drag-out. (though maybe not the Ducks)

Florida @ Florida State -7

Word has it Jimbo Fisher is looking around for a new job, and when that happens, coaches tend to have their mind set on making a great impression and get their team ready accordingly. With Florida's Jeff Driskel hurting but playing, look for FSU's fearsome D-Line to bring down the hammer early and often in an attempt to knock him out. Florida State covers. 

Notre Dame -6 @ Southern Cal

I don't buy that USC will be even comparable offensively without Matt Barkley at the helm. Their defense will see way too much of the field in ND's coronation tonight. The Irish cover. 

Big Tex says...

Last week: 4-2

This season: 20-17

Illinois @ Northwestern -19. 

Wildcats cover. 

Florida +7 @ Florida State

Gators beat the spread. 

Air Force @ Fresno State -16.5

Fresno covers. 

Idaho @ Utah State -37

USU covers. 

Virginia @ Virginia Tech -9.5

Hokies cover. 

Oregon @ Oregon State +10
Beavers beat the spread. 

Week 12: The picks are in!

By Kyle Magin

Kyle says...

This season: 22-13-1

Last week: 2-1-1

Oklahoma -12 @ West Virginia

The Sooners get all over a WVU defense that hasn't been able to stop far inferior offenses all year. Sooners cover. 

USC -4 @ UCLA

As much as UCLA has come on this season, you're going to see one fully formed offense run by USC and one still at its early stages for the Bruins in the Rose Bowl today. U of Spoiled Children covers. 

Ohio State +2 @ Wisconsin

Braxton Miller can make things happen after plays break down, and I don't believe in the second and third levels of this Wisconsin defense enough to trust them when that happens. OSU beats the spread. 

Stanford @ Oregon -20

The Ducks can smell their berth to the title game now, and Stanford will be another in a long line of victims along the way. Oregon covers. 

Big Tex says...

This season: 16-15

Last week: Idle

Kent State +3 @ Bowling Green

Washington -20 @ Colorado

Clemson -16.5 @ NC State

Ole Miss +19 @ LSU

Kansas State -12.5 @ Baylor

Stanford +20 @ Oregon

Week 11: The picks are in!

By Kyle Magin

This season: 20-12
Last week: Idle

Northwestern +8.5 @ Michigan
Vegas wants you, badly, to bet on Michigan, tightening the line up by a full point in the last day. If they play mistake-free football, Michigan covers easily. But, when's the last time they played mistake-free football? Take Northwestern to beat the spread. 

Texas A&M @ Alabama -14
I believe in Johnny Manziel. I just believe in Nick Saban a whole lot more. The Tide D-line minimizes Manziel's scrambling ability and leave a doable job for an unusually shaky Tide defensive backfield. Alabama covers. 

Oregon State +4 @ Stanford 
The battle for the Pac 12 North is a slugfest, but Oregon State keeps any margin of victory razor-thin in Palo Alto tonight. The Beavers beat the spread. 

Kansas State -6.5 @ TCU
Colin Klein and the Cats cover. 

Week 11: We're baaaack

By Kyle Magin

Wow, been awhile. It's nice to see you again. I missed you. Let's reacquaint ourselves in a comfortable manner. 

There. We're back at it, so what say we dive into a few of this week's key matchups? Hopefully we'll get back to a regular posting schedule this weekend. 

Northwestern @ Michigan -9.5

On the surface this is a very attractive line. Northwestern struggles passing the ball and is really in no shape to get into a shooting match with the Wolverines, who have the superior defense and slightly, although only incrementally, superior passing game. Both rushing attacks are deadly effective. Northwestern's key to closing the gap and covering or potentially winning will be its ability to force turnovers—27 total this season—and Michigan's propensity for losing the ball. That said, if UM gets up early, NW just doesn't have the horses to come back. 

Oregon State @ Stanford -4

Stanford does very little well except stopping you from scoring. Oregon State does that, and QB Sean Mannion excels at finding his targets deep downfield to hurt you. He's a gunslinger, with 8 TDs and 8 INTs, but does as good a job as anyone in the country of moving his team into scoring position. 

Texas A&M vs. Alabama -14

Alabama, in due deference to Denard Robinson, has not seen a quarterback with the skill set and accuracy of A&M's Johnny Manziel. Manziel, though, has seen defenses slightly below Alabama's lofty stature—LSU and Florida—and fared pretty poorly. The key for Alabama will be containing the edges and making Manziel beat you with his arm. He can do that, but it limits his fantastic ability to create on the run, and I'd never bet against a bunch of defensive backs coached by Saban losing more than just a few battles downfield. Manziel goes for 12.4-plus yards per completion, but he can pretty much rule out his fantastic running game getting their usual 250-plus yards per game. If Manziel can find his targets downfield, Alabama's A.J. McCarron will need to find his stride again after stumbling against an arguably comparable defense last week in LSU. He's got a strong running game to keep some of the heat off, but two touchdowns might be outside the realm of possibility if the Aggies can take a shot and stay on their feet. 

Penn State @ Nebraska -4

Penn State is dangerous, and playing spoiler on Nebraska's march toward the B1G title game this weekend. The Lions have struggled against mobile quarterbacks this year, though. 

Week 8: The picks are in! The picks are in!

By TNG Staff

Sorry, another in a string of analysis-free posts. The Tigers are going to the World Series, what can I say? I've been distracted. Let's get to it.

Kyle says...

This season: 17-11

Last week: 2-2

Not the best outcome last week, but you didn't lose money betting with me and you're up on the season.

Nebraska @ Northwestern +7

The Huskers' D has another thing coming if they think they'll shut down the Wildcats attack. Get down to the book and lay the Cats to keep it thisclose, if not win. Northwestern beats the spread. 

BYU @ Notre Dame -13

Robbed of their ability to throw a changeup when freshman QB Taysom Hill went down, the Riley Nelson-led BYU offense won't be able to give the Irish front line enough different looks to hold them off. ND covers easily. 

Stanford -3 @ Cal

Cal has improved since we last covered them here, but never underestimate Tedford's ability to blow a big game. Stanford covers in Berkeley. 

Michigan State +9 @ Michigan

The Spartan offense is pathetic heading into this matchup, and Andrew Maxwell is not ready for prime time. HOWEVAH, this is the best defensive front 7 outside of Alabama that Denard Robinson has seen all year, and we know how well he holds up against the rush. Spartans beat the spread. 

Marcus says...

This season: 12-12

Last week: Idle

After taking a week off, I'm back to get above .500.  Tigers in the Series though?  Life is so good.

Michigan State @ Michigan -9

MSU beats the spread if their offense gets it together.  I'm losing faith.  The Wolverines are due. Michigan covers.  Signed, Pessimistic Spartan fan in Naperville.

Western Michigan @ Kent State -3.5

After last weeks collapse in Muncie it's hard to trust the Broncos on the road.  Flashes cover.

Purdue @ Ohio State -18

The Buckeyes cover.  Braxton Miller for Heisman.

Cincinnati -5.5 @ Toledo 

A North - South Ohio battle at The Glass Bowl.   Cincy may be the tallest midget in the Big Least, but they cover against the Rockets.

Big Tex says...

This season: 12-11

Last week: 0-5

Welp, I have to admit, I was not totally expecting Big Tex to get back in the game after totally bombing every pick he made last week, including the NFL bonus, which does not count against his season record. But he's back for more and still above .500 after an oh-fer, so we'll call it a fluke and see what he has to say this week.

Louisville -6.5 vs. USF

Louisville covers. 

USC vs. Colorado +40.5

Buffs beat the spread.

LSU -3 @ Texas A&M

LSU covers. 

Oklahoma State vs. Iowa State +14

Cyclones beat the spread.

Texas vs. Baylor +11

Baylor beats the spread. 

Georgia -27.5 @ Kentucky

Bulldogs cover.

Oregon State -10 vs. Utah

Beavs cover. 

Rutgers -5 @ Temple

Rutgers covers

NFL Bonus

By TNG Staff

Big Tex took it in the pants yesterday, so he'll try to get back on the horse here.

Green Bay @ Houston -3

Denver @ San Diego +1

Week 7: The picks are in! The picks are in!

TNG staff
Alright, this is the last post I'll short you on analysis for. But, we're your money maker.

Kyle says...
This season: 15-9
Last week: 3-1
We are scorching earth with these picks. If you're betting with TNG, you're way up on the season at this point. Let's take a look at Kyle's picks for this week...

Texas +3.5 vs. Oklahoma (Dallas)
I'm taking the Horns because Landry Jones melts under pressure and the UT DTs can bring it. Texas beats the spread. 

USC -13 @ Washington
SC has too much offense for U-Dub and wins big in a high scoring affair. Trojans cover. 

Fresno State @ Boise State -7
The Broncos' defense has been dominant all year, and FSU has nadda on that side of the ball. Boise covers. 

Stanford @ Notre Dame -7
Chalk again as the Irish D proves too much for the Cardinal, who are traveling to the midwest in October—not the forte of warm weather kids. Irish cover. 

Big Tex says...
This season: 12-6
Last week: 5-1
Big Tex is tearing it up in his first season at TNG.

Kansas State -6.5 @ Iowa State
Wildcats to cover. 

WVU -4.5 @ Texas Tech
Big Tex picks the Mountaineers to cover and picks against his wife's alma mater. We'll let them square that decision.

Oregon State @ BYU -2.5
Cougars cover. 

Texas +3.5 vs. Oklahoma
Horns beat the spread.

Alabama @ Missouri +21.5
Mizzou beats the spread. 

Week 7: Keggs and Bacon

By Kyle Magin

Texas and Oklahoma are forcing us to get up really effing early on the West Coast (8 a.m.!) so I'm going to grouch via video.

That was cathartic, I think. Onto football. We've got a tremendous slate of games involving teams from West of the Mississippi this weekend: Stanford heads to Notre Dame, the aforementioned Red River Shootout, Oregon State and BYU and USC heading up to Seattle.

Texas vs. Oklahoma -3.5 (Dallas) 
UT's defense is not good. Oklahoma is shaky, but WHEN the Sooners get Landry Jones protection, he can find holes in the backfield to the tune of 11.3 yards per completion. He's getting great help from his rush game, but OU, completely logistically, doesn't bother to run all that much. Of course. Texas' offense is solid aside from a pesky penchant for fumbling the ball—8 times so far this season. Its defense has a miserable habit of giving up big plays—opponents managed 13.5 yards per catch against the 1-loss Horns through the first half of the season, and time and again last week West Virginia's receivers got loose for long plays. If Jones can find his receivers, it'll be a long day in the Cotton Bowl, but, few teams get to the passer like Texas' d-ends.

Southern Cal -12 @ Washington
We all know Washington is hapless against the run game. USC has difficulties protecting its quarterback. Watch for SC to try to manufacture some protection for Matt Barkley with Silas Redd and the boys in the run game before going to the air.

Oregon State @ BYU -6
Oregon State is ranked 10th and still getting no love. I understand Provo is no easy place to play, but the Cougars' offense has been so and up and down this season while the Beavers have been rock solid.

Stanford @ Notre Dame -7.5
Big play Ty Montgomery, a receiver for the Cardinal, is likely hurt and out for game in South Bend. That's a problem, because any headway opponents have made this year against the Irish has been through the air. UND strangles opposing offenses, giving up just 39 percent of opposing third down conversions and a minuscule 17 percent of red zone scores as touchdowns. If you get off on the Irish, consider yourself lucky.

Week 7: Games we're watching

By Kyle Magin
Consumed with a trip to Oakland to watch the Tigers try to sweep the A's in game 3 of the ALDS, you'll get a brief Monday-Tuesday post here.

Texas vs. Oklahoma -3
Can UT bounce back in Dallas after a demoralizing lost last week at home to West Virginia?

Louisville -3 @ Pittsburgh

Fresno State @ Boise State -7.5
Fresno's all-world offenses clashes with an immovable object in the Broncos' D.

Stanford @ Notre Dame -9.5
Best defensive matchup of the day.

South Carolina @ LSU -3
SC is in the title hunt and LSU hasn't convinced in any win since early September.

West Virginia -4.5 @ Texas Tech
How much juice does the Mountaineer offense have left?

Week 6: The Picks are in! The Picks are in!

TNG Staff

I hope you're keeping an eye on TNG and taking our advice this season, because if you are, you're making money. We're a combined 29-23 on the season. I'll let Luda tell you the rest...

Kyle says...

This season: 12-8

Last week: 3-1

Northwestern +3 @ Penn State

The Wildcats offense is too dynamic for the Lions, even on homecoming. NW beats the spread. 

Washington @ Oregon -25

The Duck defense makes the difference in this game. Quack to cover. 

Georgia @ South Carolina -1.5

Georgia's defense has too many holes for the ol' Ballcoach to exploit. Cocks cover. 

West Virginia @ Texas -6.5

The Horns have some pieces on defense, and that's more than W. Va, despite the fireworks. Horns cover. 

Marcus says...

This season: 10-10

Last week: 3-1

Northwestern +3 @ Penn State

UMass @ Western Michigan -16.5

Michigan State -15.5 @ Indiana

Northern Illinois -2.5 @ Ball State

Big Tex says...

This season: 7-5

Last week: Idle

Kansas State -23.5 vs Kansas

Texas -6.5 vs WVU

Ohio State -3.5 vs Nebraska

Mississippi State -9.5 @ Kentucky

Oklahoma -5.5 @ Texas Tech

Clemson -9.5 vs Georgia Tech

Week 6: Just Ducky

By Kyle Magin
Nike's Oregon Duck army circles the wagons in Eugene this weekend when he Dogs come to town, looking for their second straight upset win. SC continues to trot through the desert of dashed expectations, and, oddly, a win over a struggling Utah squad could give them a hand. In Palo Alto, we find out onetime heroes, the Stanford Cardinal, look to get back on top against the once-feared and now-jeered Arizona Wildcats.

Southern California -14.5 @ Utah
SC's defense is relatively stout—giving up just 17.3 points per game against some pretty strong offenses. Leonard Williams is taking care of things up front and putting pressure on opposing offenses while Dion Bailey lurks in the defensive backfield. To almost everyone's surprise, it's the Trojan O led by QB Matt Barkley letting the U of Spoiled Children down. Barkley's completing just 55 percent of his passes and the offense is miserable on third down. Utah's Star Lotulelei and co are shutting opposing offenses down on third zone and in the red zone. The Utes offense can't put up any points, though.

Washington @ Oregon -24
What's there to say? The Ducks are 24 point favorites because their defense is starting to shut people down, and their offense outscores opponents 91-19 in the first quarter. The Duck D shuts down opposing offenses in the red zone, where they only manage to score TDs 30 percent of the time and convert on third downs just 25 percent of the time. Ho-hum for the O, where Oregon rushes for 6 yards per carry and does all sorts of wild things through the air. The Huskies are Giant Killers because Keith Price and company continue to win the time of possession battle and have minimized turnovers.

Arizona @ Stanford -9
Stanford plays defense!

Week 6: Two go in, one comes out

By Kyle Magin
Three games down south this weekend feature undefeated teams facing off against one another in a cage-match like scenario: Only one leaves with its record unblemished. Prepare accordingly.

Georgia @ South Carolina -2
Go ahead and open another tab and light up the Rocky theme song while you read this. I'll wait. Georgia goes into South Carolina at 5-0 and riding high after a shootout victory over Tennessee last week. The offense is on fire—QB Aaron Murray is making pretty good decisions with the ball and RBs Todd Gurley and Keith Marshall are blowing defenders away to the tune of 8 yards per carry. The defense, charitably, though, looks like shit. That's in stark contrast to SC, who has its own all-world running back in Marcus Lattimore and a defense that holds opposing offenses to less than 300 yards per game, 27 percent on third down conversions and 25 percent on red zone touchdowns. Simply put, it's hard to sustain drives against DL Ja'Daveon Clowney and Co. I think this game comes down to SC's ability to shut down a dangerous Georgia offense, because they'll likely have success against a team that gave up nearly 5 yards per rush last week.

West Virginia @ Texas -7
Sure, Texas has stars on its defense—Jackson Jeffcoat, Alex Okafor, Kenny Vaccaro—but as a team, the defense is at best suspect. That's not exactly where you want to be going against Mr. 20 TD HEISMAN WINNER HOPEFUL Geno Smith and his immensely talented receivers, Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey. Smith is currently the most efficient quarterback in college football with an 83.4 percent completion rate while piloting the offense with the highest total yardage, yardage per catch and passing touchdown total in the nation. But his defense is a joke, and UT has been nothing short of stellar on offense. QB David Ash is completing passes at a 77 percent rate and getting loads of support from his multi-faceted run game. We've said it here before and we'll say it again, teams utilizing their run game to win the time of possession put the game's math in their favor. Add in the slight home field advantage Texas gets and a few plays from its defensive stars and it could be a rude welcome to Austin for the Mountaineers.

LSU -3 @ Florida
In the past, LSU has been able to bully Florida with a superior rushing game. In this year's edition, though, the Gators come in with a run game and defense more than holding their own nationally—ranked 20th and 10th, respectively. The Tigers get the nod on offense, if only slightly, because Florida's pass game is still such a shambles right now. Zach Mettenberger, now a confirmed "Anchorman" fan—seriously, Google 'Zach Mettenberger Ron Burgundy'—hits for 13 yards per pass when he does complete them and has a solid run game to buy him time in the pocket. Florida's RB Mike Gillislee must seize the initiative and continue to gain close to 6 yards per carry to keep the Gators in business inside what's sure to be a raucous Swamp atmosphere.

Week 6: Bangarang

By Kyle Magin
Week 6 is going to be intense. Penn State is on a three game winning streak and the undefeated Northwestern Wildcats come to town in what could very well be described as PSU's bowl game. In the Northwest, UW takes its upset-minded show on the road to Eugene, where Oregon knows its one game away from kissing its title hopes goodbye. West Virginia goes on the road to Austin, where Texas' defense is looking for its backbone after a shootout victory last week over Oklahoma State. Down south, Georgia heads up the road to Columbia for its date with the Old Ballcoach and a chance to remain in the national title discussion. Week 6 makes Kyle feel:

RU-FI-OHHHHHHH...

Northwestern @ Penn State -3
Northwestern "QB" Kain Colter is one of football's most dangerous men right now. He actually throws very little, but completes his passes for 8-plus yards, averages 6-plus yards passing and lines up at reciever—where he's good for 14-plus yards per catch. Combine him with actual strong arm QB Trevor Siemian and his 69 percent completion average and you have an electric duo in the undefeated Wildcat offense. Penn State is equally dangerous, though, for different reasons. The 3-2 Nittany Lions swing for the fences—with a depleted roster its their best strategy. They are among the league leaders in going for it on fourth down and fourth down conversions, and their pass game accounts for 60-plus percent of their first downs and almost twice the yardage as they've gained on the ground. Northwestern is weak defensively against the pass—giving up 11.6 yards per catch—and on homecoming, I'd look for the Lions to air it out plenty against NW. But, the Wildcats are good on third down (converting 54 percent of the time), much better than PSU, and I can see them winning time of possession if PSU's pass game falters.

Miami vs. Notre Dame -13.5 (Chicago)
This is an Admiral Ackbar game for the Irish if I've ever seen one. Miami, by all rights, should not be 3-1 and in the driver's seat in the ACC. The Canes blow on defense, have a perplexingly unbalanced offense weighted toward passing and are getting stomped out by nearly 10 MINUTES PER GAME in time of possession. The only thing floating this goddamn roster is QB Stephen Morris and his nine passing touchdowns and 320-plus yards per game passing. Therein lies the rub for the Irish—for this defense's many strengths and accomplishments, they have not been tested against a good passing team. Manti Te'o and co are adept at putting pressure on opposing passers and minimizing the time their DBs are forced to cover opposing receivers. If Morris can use his legs to extend that time frame we could see the ND corners tested, something that hasn't really happened yet. The Irish have 14 sacks, though, in their undefeated start. And, they're winning time of possession by a little more than two minutes and RBs Cierre Wood and George Aktinson are grabbing big yards in limited carries while Theo Riddick remains the unit's workhorse.

Nebraska @ Ohio State -3
Nebraska's sole loss came on the road this season, while the undefeated Buckeyes have been shaky but are getting the job done. A big reason for that is the work of their experienced offensive line, which is getting the Buckeye backs a huge push to work with—and they're taking advantage of it to the tune of 5.1 yards per rush. You put up those kind of numbers and you're going to own the line of scrimmage—something Nebraska's D isn't giving up without a fight, holding opponents to less than 3.5 yards per carry. I think this might come down to T. Magic—Nebraska QB Taylor Martinez—and his big-play ability. He's passing for nearly 13 yards per completion—good enough to negate any time of possession advantage gained by the Buckeyes' Braxton Miller, who is still a suspect passer.

Week 5: More picks!

By Kyle Magin

Again, you just want the picks, let's get to it.

Kyle says...

Season Record: 9-7
Last Week: 3-1

UCLA -20 @ Colorado
UCLA covers. 

Texas -2.5 @ Oklahoma State
Texas covers. 

Georgia @ Tennessee +14
Tennessee to cover. 

Wisconsin @ Nebraska -11.5
Nebraska to cover.

Week 5: The picks are in!

Shortened version again this week, but the picks are what you really want any way. Here we go...

Marcus says...

Season Record: 7-9
Last Week: 1-3

Indiana @ Northwestern -11

Take the Wildcats to cover in Evanston.

Central Michigan @ Northern Illinois -10

The Chips played well at Iowa last week, but the letdown is coming in DeKalb. Take the Huskies to cover.

Ohio State +2.5 @ Michigan State

Take the Buckeyes and the points.

Toledo @ Western Michigan -1.5

Take the Broncos to cover under the lights at Waldo.

Week 5: Get ya Horns up

By Kyle Magin
Let's go to Mobilehoma, on purpose. It's OK, the locals are out fisting for fish. Don't ask. We'll follow the Longhorns up to the land of sad Indians and T. Boone Pickens. For some reason America's asshole Oklahoma produces some pretty good college football quarterbacks. Like the 2011 edition of Landry Jones and Brandon Weeden. And the 2012 edition of Landry Jones and Wes Lunt. Wait, lome again? (see what I did there?)

Central Plains REPRESENT!

Texas -2.5 @ Oklahoma State
The Longhorns go into Stillwater looking to avenge three straight losses to the Pokes, who've had their number lately. This isn't the 2010 (Thank God) or the 2011 edition of the Horns, though. The defensive line is the fiercest in the nation, and ends Alex Okafor and Jackson Jeffcoat are letting exactly nothing past them. QB David Ash is playing above everyone's expectations, completing 76-plus percent of his passes for nearly 13 yards per hookup. There's some question about whether or not OSU can make Ash uncomfortable in the pocket given the fact his second leading rusher—Joe Bergeron—is likely out for the game. Likely, all is not well on the UT defense, where linebacker Jordan Hicks is likely out and the defensive secondary has given up a glut of huge plays already. I'll guarantee Mike Gundy is going after  UT DB Carring Byndom. But, I'm not sure he has the tools to do it. Lunt and J.W. Walsh have looked pretty pedestrian after a big opening win over BCS punching bag Savannah State and are coughing the ball up often. Texas is +6 in turnovers, and if they can win that battle Saturday, it'll be a long night for the Cowboys.

Virginia Tech -6.5 @ Cincinnati 
Blacksburg plays host to two teams who have designs on conference titles late in the nonconference season. The undefeated Bearcats looked great against a then-sorry looking Pittsburgh team in their opener before coasting against Delaware. Not much can be gleaned from Cincy yet except that QB Munchie Legaux has one of the cooler names in college football. He's got accuracy problems and is a string bean, but does himself favors by overthrowing the defense when he's off and scrabling well out of the pocket when pressure is closing in. They'll need a big game from him Saturday if he's going to hold off a strong Tech defense. The 3-1 Hokies lost to Pittsburg, the common opponent, but it was a much different Panthers team than when Cincy saw them. Hokies QB Logan Thomas has been miserable this season, completing just a hair over half of his passes and taking eight sacks against some subpar competition. If Cincy can mount any sort of rush, it could tilt the time of possession in the Bearcats favor, giving them more possessions to work with and greater chance of putting more points on the board. Math!

Toledo @ Western Michigan -1.5
Saddle up Waldo, the Rockets are coming. Will Toledo expose the Broncos' one-dimensional offense and drop extra defenders into coverage, forcing WMU to win by rushing the ball, something they've proven they can't do? Even with the addition of former MSU G John Deyo, WMU just cannot get a push running the ball, and Toledo does have a time of possession advantage on opponents this season. That said, Toledo can't run the ball any better, and while QB Terrance Owens is surely WMU QB Alex Carder's superior when it comes to completions and yards per completion, Carder wins out when it counts, leading his team more effectively in the red zone (where the Bronco score 68 percent of the time to the Rockets' 50 percent) and per-game passing yardage. Neither defense has been spectacular, but I'd give the slight edge to Toledo.

Week 5: Hello Seattle

By Kyle Magin

Tomorrow, for the second time in a week, the eyes of the American football world turn upon Seattle. The Emerald City's beloved Huskies welcome Stanford's potent defense and running game to CenturyLink Field. I was super psyched about this game and wanted to post for you all a great song about Seattle, a city I've come to love since moving out west, then I found this:

Now I want to wear flannel and bang my head against a wall while listening to grunge.

Stanford -6.5 @ Washington
U-Dub comes into this game with major question marks, and Stanford comes in looking like a defensive juggernaut. Last we saw the Huskies, LSU pancaked them, laying 41 on the dogs and holding the offense to just three rushing first downs and six passing first downs, and eight of the Dogs' 12 drives ended in punts. Since then, they've managed to right the ship slightly with a win over Portland State, improving to 2-1 on the season. Stanford is on a roll at 3-0 and last we saw them, they dethroned the #3 USC Trojans by blanking the Barkley-led boys for the last three quarters of the game. Two USC drives advanced past five snaps, with most ending in three & outs. Opponents convert less than 25 percent of the time on third down against the Cardinal and score touchdowns in the red zone just 44 percent of the time. Stanford Free Safety Ed Reynolds is the best center fielder in football, defending or breaking up 7 passes and intercepting three more. His matchup against Husky QB Keith Price will be one of the more interesting matchups of the night, as Price's passes go for about 10 yards per reception. If he can get a little support from an anemic rush game, he might find space underneath against the Stanford corners and linebackers, and just maybe find something deep. Stanford QB Josh Nunes has some accuracy problems, but goes 12-plus yards when he does complete.

Hawaii @ BYU -27.5
BYU, I've come to find out, is the quintessential button mashing knob you used to hate playing dorm room NCAA football against on that PS2 you spilled the beer on. They pass without consciousness, completing just 57 percent of their throws, but connecting with wideouts for 11.4 yards per grab, though. This is not good for Hawaii, who gives up about 12.6 yards per catch with a weak, young secondary. BYU, though, can go very bad, like QB Riley Nelson did against Boise State last week, leading the Cougs to a whopping 6 points. Hawaii can make up ground with its fairly effective run game and awesome ability to score in the red zone—it happens 91 percent of the time. Head Coach Norm Chow's gameplans are a bitch to deal with, even for a solid defense like BYU's. The Cougs have a solid, solid group of experienced linebackers, though, and Hawaii has very little in terms of receiving, meaning we'll see BYU stack the box and force Hawaii to beat it over the top.

Oregon -30.5 @ Washington State (Seattle)
UO's defense is getting nothing but better, and that's bad news for Wazzou, already losing the time of possession battle by an average of 6 minutes per game. You don't play so much for home runs against the Ducks D as you play for time of possession. It sounds simple, but keeping the ball out of Chip Kelly's offense's hands is the best way to keep things close. With Wazzou giving up third downs at a 49 percent clip, expect to see Ducks QB Marcus Mariota a lot Saturday, which will translate to a lot of points.

Week 5: Bring out your dead.

By Kyle Magin

On Saturday John L. Smith and his Razorbacks head to College Station for their next stop in a season of ass-whoopings. I wonder if they don't feel like this already:

"I'm not dead yet!"
The SEC's most intriguing matchup just might be the Tennessee Volunteers going up against a confident, improving team of Georgia Bulldogs. We'll take a look at 'Bama just cause.

Arkansas @ Texas A&M -14
Whoa-ho-ho, bring your Serta pillows, because this is going to be one hell of a featherweight battle. In this corner, the Arkansas Razorbacks, proud owners of a 1-3 record and a third down conversion percentage of 28 percent! And in the other red corner, with a record of 2-1 with wins against nobody, the Texas A&M Aggies!

"Just fucking ring the bell, you pansy"—Joseph "Blue" Pulaski

Actually, A&M, while playing against inferior opponents, is actually putting together a competent-looking stat line. D-lineman Damontre Moore, with six sacks and eight tackles for loss is wreaking havoc in opposing backfields and is just the kind of player that could force fumbles and injuries of Arkansas backs who are getting exactly no protection from the Hogs offensive line. If the defense can keep the Hogs quiet in the first half its very balanced offense—passing and rushing plays are split nearly 50/50 and both strategies have been effective in the red zone, where the Aggies score at a 91 percent pace—will march on past Arkansas to its first SEC victory.

Tennessee @ Georgia -13
Tennessee heads down Between the Hedges to take on an absolute wrecking ball of a Georgia rushing attack (and pretty good passing attack, too.) The Dawgs' running backs are gaining about six yards per rush and the receivers are pulling in Aaron Murray bombs, averaging 16.2 yards per catch. The real star, though, is linebacker Jarvis Jones, who has tackled or sacked opposing offenses for a total loss of 88 yards. On his own. Add in interception yardage, and Jones has earned the Dawgs about 100 total yards. Tennessee isn't getting much help from its 59th-ranked rushing game, which could put an unreasonable amount of pressure on QB Tyler Bray, who is having a fantastic season but struggled against Florida, the best defense the Vols saw before this weekend's matchup. This is also the 3-1 Vols' first road game, which could spell trouble.

Mississippi @ Alabama -31
Ole Miss will probably get steamrolled.

Midwest Monday: Look who's back in town again

By Kyle Magin

Gameday is coming back to East Lansing Saturday as Ohio State and Michigan State scrap in Spartan Stadium. Let's celebrate:

Man I still think them cats'll play.

Here's the thing, there are some really compelling matchups this week. It's sneaky good. You have the aforementioned B1G opener, The 'Nati and Va. Tech getting together in the nation's capital, the Vols heading in between the hedges and the Horns headed up to Stillwater. Let's get to the games amongst THEY WHO EAT MEAT AND POTATOES.

Ohio State @ Michigan State -3
Both teams come into this game with foul-smelling passing games. The difference is OSU still finds a way to score points—nearly 38 of them per game, as opposed to the Spartans measly 21. OSU's done it against a decidedly easier slate, but still, 4-0 speaks for itself. Last we saw the struggling Spartans, QB Andrew Maxwell's passing game was getting slapped upside the head by Eastern Michigan. They're completing just 57 percent of passes and can't get opposing defenses off Le'Veon Bell's back. They'll have to learn to capitalize through the air in a hurry because the Bucks are vulnerable there—opponents have gained 42 passing first downs against this defense and make up a majority of their offense vs. OSU through the air. IF MSU can continue to play its smothering brand of defense and DE William Gholston is asked to contain and then attack OSU QB Braxton Miller, this could make last year's 10-7 MSU win in the Shoe look like a shootout.

Wisconsin @ Nebraska -13
Just a few weeks ago this line would have seemed outrageous. But now, Wisconsin (3-1) looks lost offensively and are truly missing two graduated first time all-B1G defensive backs on the other side of the ball. The Badger offensive line is getting no push for RB Montee Ball and Co., averaging just 3.1 yards per carry and converting less than a third of third down attempts. The passing game is mired in mediocrity behind new QB Danny O'Brien, and the defense is giving up 245 passing yards per game. Throw enough against the Badgers and something will open up downfield. Nebraska, thankfully for the folks in Madison, still aren't throwing a ton—the Huskers are 66th in the nation in passing yardage, though QB Taylor Martinez has been completing a fairly efficient 70.7 percent of his throws. He's backed up by an incredibly solid run game led by Ameer Abdullah, averaging more than 6 yards per carry. If he can get to the second level on Wisconsin's defense often enough, look for things to open up deep for Martinez.

Minnesota @ Iowa -7
Iowa is a piddly-shit program who may or may not have lost this blogger money in a BLOWOUT LOSS to CENTRAL MICHIGAN last Saturday at Kinnick Stadium. I won't get into much more than a few stats on the 2-2 Hawkeyes—they converted only 30 percent of third downs vs. a MAC defense last week and got beaten 36-23 minutes in time of possession. Playing keep away is an effective strategy vs. these "Forrest's IQ is below this line, Mrs. Gump" Iowa schoolyard defenders. A questionable D-line just isn't getting a push and the defensive backs are continuing last year's tradition of sucking ass. Minnesota, on the other hand, has beaten four solid if not spectacular opponents behind a surprisingly strong D-line, led by D.L. Wilhite and his astounding 4.5 sacks and 5.5 tackles for loss on the young season. Sophomore QB Max Shortell has been an effective shepherd for a middling offense, but if they keep getting stellar defensive help, I like this line as much as any you'll see all week.

Week 4: The Picks are in!

2/3rds of TNG pickers are running in a Tough Mudder tomorrow, so this is going to be a light post. Here ya go.


Marcus says...
Season Record: 6-6
Last week: 3-1

Kansas +9 @ Northern Illinois
Kansas to cover. 

Louisiana Tech @ Illinois -2.5
Illini to cover.

UTEP @ Wisconsin -18
Wisconsin to cover.

Michigan +5.5 @ Notre Dame
Michigan to cover.

Big Tex says...
Season Record: 4-4
Last Week: Idle

Arizona @ Oregon -21.5; Wildcats are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings. Also, the underdog is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings. 

Kansas State @ Oklahoma -14; Oklahoma is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games. Road team is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings. Wildcats are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Oklahoma. 

Louisville @ FIU -13.5; 

Kyle says...

Season Record: 6-6

Last Week: 2-2

Vanderbilt @ Georgia -16

Georgia to cover. 

LSU -20.5 @ Auburn

LSU to cover. 

Michigan @ Notre Dame -5.5

Notre Dame to cover. 

Arizona @ Oregon -21.5

Oregon to cover. 

Week 4: Bear Down and Duck

By Kyle Magin
We venture out west, where up is down, UCLA is relevant again, and USC caught an ass-whooping of epic proportions from the Cardinal. This weekend, Arizona heads into Autzen in what could actually be a pretty entertaining matchup. Everything is better with De'Anthony Thomas.

Side note: F*ck Wisconsin.

Arizona @ Oregon -23
I've heard more than a few people say this line is way to large. It's understandable, as Arizona is 3-0, looks like a contender in the Pac 12 south and is racking up passing yards at a faster clip than almost anyone in the nation. QB Matt Scott appears to be just right for RichRod's offense, and aside from his concerningly-high sack total, he's been effective in the red zone and an efficient passer. The only problem for Arizona is that Oregon's offense is going to be on the other side of the field against the Bearcat defense. Oregon doesn't miss in the red zone, scoring 85 percent of the time its entered the 20 yard line—and every single one of those is a touchdown. Marcus Mariota completes 75 percent of his passes down there, and the Bearcats D has been soft in the red zone this season. 'Zona will have to keep a close eye on Thomas down here, a dangerous prospect given Mariota's knack at finding his secondary targets, notably RB Kenjon Barner. Whatever the over settles in at, take it.

BYU @ Boise State -7
BYU doesn't get a breather after last weekend's bizarre, last-second loss to Utah in the Holy War. You'd better believe after two wins Boise will be buzzing tomorrow night for the nationally televised showdown with a squad that wants what they have: To be the baddest off-brand squad west of the Mississippi. BYU is having difficulties finding rushing yards—they gained just 2.5 yards per carry last week and none of their backs were able to get loose for more than 54 yards despite a combined 42 carries. If they can't take more heat off the passing game—who'll face one of Boise's tougher defensive units in the Bronco DBs—the Cougs are in trouble. Boise's D has held opponents to just one passing touchdown this season, and that's when the big nasties like DL Tyler Horn go in for the kill on opposing quarterbacks. Boise's offense is having some growing pains under Joe Southwick, but the defense has been lights out.


Cal @ USC -16
The exact moment I decide to stop picking SC a game pops up like this. Cal at 1-2 can't seem to get out of its own way, posting wildly inconsistent offensive numbers even in games like last week's close loss to OSU, when the special teams played a great game. The Bears' problem isn't their down-to-down defense or even their red zone defense, it's the fact that they give up big plays like the nanny state football team they are, allowing three scoring plays of 25-plus yards last week alone. Wherever you are on the field against Cal, you're in scoring range. The problem, I suspect, lies mainly with the Bears inability to pressure opposing quarterbacks. Matt Barkley is very sackable, but if you don't pressure him, he finds his receivers deep downfield—they average 12.3 yards per catch. USC is having a hard time getting its running game going (they 95th in the nation in rush yardage) but if Silas Redd can bust a big play or two it'll open up things for Barkley and his talented receivers—watch out.

Oregon State @ UCLA -7.5
For all the hype, what do we actual know about Oregon State after its only win of the season vs. Wisconsin? This is still a team with a young o-line and anemic offense. The defense is strong, but Wisconsin had major problems in that opener in Corvallis. In Westwood there are two guys in the backfield who can make you pay dearly with their legs—QB Brett Hundley and RB Jonathan Franklin, who is averaging an impressive 9 yards per touch. The Bruins rushing game is so good that they're nearly guarunteed to win the time of possession battle—a scary prospect for an OSU team not meant to come from behind.

Week 4: Sunshine State of Mind

By Kyle Magin

Between the 'Noles and Gators, FLA is comin' back in a big way in college football. Not that any of us missed them, but still, something does seem right when the state has a few highly competitive teams in action. And it's beautiful there, to wit:

(38 seconds in). Inappropriate. Inappropriate.

The South and SEC in particular looks like the class of college football again this year unless the folks in Eugene, Norman or hell, I'll say it, South Bend can get their acts together. Let's go clog our arteries on a little southern fried.

Clemson @ Florida State -14

FSU, for lack of a better term, is shitting on its opponents and moving on like a grazing buffalo. They've given up 3 points all season. They're averaging more than 50. Granted, they've played some slop competition, but it takes a lot for a football team to dominate in such a manner every week. Clemson has looked slightly less dominating in rushing to its 3-0 record, but only slightly. QB Tajh Boyd is averaging almost 300 passing yards per game but has had *some* problems under pressure. The key for Clemson will be to establish its rushing game to open things up for Boyd agains the Noles, but Tallahassee will be unforgiving Saturday.

LSU -21 @ Auburn

This game is eminently winnable for LSU. Tigers QB Zach Mettenberger is a revelation—averaging 12.6-plus yards per completion and completing more than 72 percent of his throws. His game complements the LSU rushing attack well, keeping teams from totally packing the box against RB Kenny Hilliard and his six rushing touchdowns. Auburn is comparatively a mess, and QB Kiehl Frazier is getting no support from his rush game. The defense in atrocious—allowing more third down conversions, yards per rush, time of possession and giving up red zone TDs 54 percent of the time. 

Florida Atlantic @ Alabama -49.5

One sentence because I'm lazy and 'Bama is that good: 100 percent of the time the Tide gets inside the 20 yard line, they score; opponents have done that once this season.

Kentucky @ Florida -24

Florida's defense looks so good, and the offense has been surprisingly effective, completing 70-plus percent of its passes and scoring at an 89 percent clip in the red zone on its way to a 3-0 record. The Jeff Driskell-Jacoby Brissett snap sharing plan at QB is complementing the rush game well, which is all they need it to do. Kentucky, on the other hand, is a one-trick pony. If things don't work through the air, the 1-2 Wildcats don't work. Receiver La'Rod King needs to continue to rack up YAC like it's going out to style. 

Week 4: Midwest Monday or "Let's do it again"

By Kyle Magin
Remember the finish last year when Notre Dame and Michigan got together?

This bettor does. I was sitting in the casino parking lot just waiting for ND to cover so I could collect on the back end of a two-team parlay. Fuck you, Roy Roundtree. Onto this week.


 Kansas State @ Oklahoma -14 
K-State QB Collin Klein has gotten great protection, thrown accurately and most importantly run an effective option in coach Bill Snyder's offense. All three of those things must continue against Oklahoma Saturday in Norman for K-State to become relevant once again on the national stage. Klein isn't passing for much—with a rushing attack averaging more than 250 yards per game he hasn't been asked to—but when he does throw completions he's averaging more than 14 yards. Oklahoma QB Landry Jones hasn't been quite as effective but the OU defense under Mike Stoops sure has—surrendering just 8 first downs rushing in two games and zero rushing touchdowns. Worse yet, if things don't go well for Sooner opponents on first and second down, their chances of converting a third down drop below 20 percent. K-State's line will need to keep OU DT Jama McFarland out of the backfield for the Cats to have a shot.

 Michigan @ Notre Dame -5.5 
Can the luck of the Irish hold out? After three weeks of dominating defense, I'm guessing they can. While Notre Dame hasn't seen an offense with Michigan's dynamism yet, they have seen comparable or slightly better offensive lines, against which they've managed 11 sacks, 20 tackles for loss and given up an average of just 10 points per game. The key to beating Denard Robinson has been to force him to stay in the pocket and throw—he's a cumulative 54 percent on completions but gets progressively worse on second and third down, where all four of his interceptions have come this season. If Notre Dame's Manti Te'o and co can continue to shut down the run, the odds work in their favor in Michigan must go to the air for their survival. QB Everett Golson isn't much better than Robinson accuracy-wise, but he's got a much better rushing game to back him up.

 Missouri @ South Carolina -10 
South Carolina is doing business on defense, giving up a paltry 9.7 yards per game and holding opposing offenses to 1.6 rushing yards and a 25 percent conversion percentage on third down. The later you get into a game against the Gamecocks, the less likely you are to convert when down and distance isn't in your favor. Sophomore QB Dylan Thompson's emergence as starter after Connor Shaw's injury should be of grave concern, though—Thompson's accuracy is spotty at best and in limited action he's been sacked six times, in part due to an underachieving offensive line, and in part due to inexperience and an inability to get rid of the ball quickly. Don't think that hasn't been noticed by MU sackmaster DE Brad Madison, who has three already this season on a team that's garnered nine. If only Mizzou QB James Franklin could improve on his anemic passing numbers, Mizzou could have a shot at covering.

 UConn -1.5 @ Western Michigan
The Bronco is a one-trick pony this season—pass, pass and pass some more. UConn has been very effective at stopping the pass, and the run for that matter, holding opposing offenses to a little more than 10 points per game and 123 yards through the air. Where there's an opening to WMU is in QB Alex Carder's ability to complete passes—he's been doing it at a modest 62 percent rate, but that's on average 20 percent higher than any of UConn's opponents to date. When the Huskies give up a completion, the opposition averages 10 yards. Carder will have to if his running game continues to offer no support and UConn's rush defense continues holding opposing offenses to 1.2 yards per carry. UConn's offense is actually worse than the Broncos—they're at or below 100th in the nation in both passing and rushing yards—so don't expect a shootout.

NFL bonus

We had a good day yesterday, going 5-3. Big Tex checks in this morning with a few NFL picks. Texans -7.5 @ Jacksonville. Go with the Texans Oakland -2 @ Miami. Pick the Raiders

Week 3: And the picks keeping coming in...

Marcus says...

Season Record:  3-5
Last Week: 2-2

Notre Dame +6 @ Michigan State

I was live from South Bend last week and saw ND pull a rabbit out of the hat.  The running game was non-existent.  Golson played well, but watched from the sidelines with a 'hand injury' as Rees led the game winning drive.  Sparty got loose last week in Mt Pleasant.  Maxwell threw for 2 TDs and no INTs.  The Battle for the Megaphone is always close and I see this year being much of the same.  I'm taking ND and the points but expect Sparty to win by a FG.

Western Michigan @ Minnesota -3

This will be the live tweet this week as I'll be live from TCF Bank Stadium.  Bronco QB Alex Carder seemed to find targets in TE Blake Hammond and WR Jaime Wilson as WMU rolled up Eastern Illinois.  Senior QB MarQueis Gray led Minnesota to a 2-0 with a 44-7 win against New Hampshire.  Vegas seems to like Coach Cubit and the Broncos but I see a Minnesota victory.  I'm taking Minnesota to cover but am looking for some fight out of WMU.

Massachusetts +45.5 @ Michigan

Air Force came into the big house and almost ruined the Wolverines' season.  UM escaped with a victory and thankfully for them will not face an attack like Air Force the rest of the year.  UMass got beat up by IU last week and looks like they could have a rough year in the MAC.  DE Brennan Beyer will be out for Michigan but they won't need him against the hapless Minutemen.  I think the maize and blue will roll but 45.5 is a huge number.  Take UMass and the points.

Texas -10 @ Ole Miss

Let's venture out of the midwest for a bit and take a trip down south.  The 'Horns laid the wood against New Mexico last week, pitching a shut out.  QB David Ash did it through the air with 2 TD passes and even opened the game with a 49 yard TD run.  Get used to the bench Case McCoy.  The Rebs beat UTEP last week and have a stud in sophomore QB Bo Wallace.  I see the Texas D frustrating Wallace and winning by two TDs.  Take Texas to cover.

Week 3: The Picks Are In! The Picks Are In!

In honor of our 8-4 record last weekend:

And they stay there.

Kyle says...

Season record: 4-4
Last week: 3-1

Notre Dame @ Michigan State -6
The Spartans haven't surrendered one offensive touchdown yet this season. Last week they held Central Michigan to a 38 percent third down conversion percentage, just 72 rushing yards and 4.6 yards per pass in a effort that was even more dominant than their matchup against Boise State. Notre Dame's defense is impressive—forcing two turnovers out of Purdue last week and holding the Boilermaker offense to less than 300 total yards. Michigan State, though, has Le'Veon Bell, who is averaging more than 6 yards every time he touches the ball. Notre Dame has not yet been tested by a runner, or an offensive line, of Bell and Michigan State's caliber. The Spartans dig in for revenge and cover at home.

USC -8 @ Stanford
Chalk baby. SC gets back in-state after a puzzling game last week in New Jersey vs. Syracuse and lines up a strong but untested Stanford team in its sights. Stanford's passing attack, headed by QB Josh Nunes, has struggled at times in the first two games. He's been sacked and hurried a few times and is completing about 57 percent of his passes—passable numbers against the likes of San Jose State and Duke, but it won't fly against the Trojans, who are led by QB Matt Barkley and two terrific receivers—Marqise Lee and Robert Woods, both well over the 200 yard mark on the two-game long season. If SC can establish its running game looks against this inexperienced Cardinal will open up for Barkley and it's goodnight sweetheart.

BYU -3.5 @ Utah UNDER 46.5
The Holy War pits two different styles against one another—the pass happy Cougars are averaging 305 passing yards per game and Utah has been pretty effective defensively behind leading man DT Star Lotulelei. Shutting down BYU's passing game and forcing them to the rush—they're averaging just under 4 yards per carry as a team—will be key for the Utes. I'd look for BYU to start hot as in the last two games behind QB Riley Nelson (the Cougs average 22.5 points in the first half) then go into a more conservative mode. Utah's offense is a mess behind newly-minted quarterback Jon Hays had accuracy problems when he stepped in as an emergency last week. Take the under. 

Florida +3 @ Tennessee
This pick might perplex some as Tennessee appears to be as loaded offensively as it's been since the Tee Martin days, but Florida is an absolute monster on defense. In the second half of last week's tight win over Texas A&M, Florida allowed the Aggies to cross the 50 a grand total of once and held them to less than 50 cumulative yards. A&M converted less than a quarter of its third downs against Florida. The Gators aren't any great shakes on offense, though, and QB Jeff Driskell is getting sacked at a rate of nearly 3 times per game. But, Tennessee has had trouble rushing the passer this season, and if Driskell can remain on his feet he'll set up the running game and Tennessee can kiss their day goodbye. Florida to cover. 

Week 3: Thirsty Thursdays

By Kyle Magin
Tonight's the night week 3 kicks off and we're pumped here at TNG for showdowns in the B1G, SEC, ACC and Pac 12. I feel this much excited:

Wake Forest @ Florida State -28
This has been one of the biggest line swings of the week, with FSU going from a 24-point favorite Sunday to a 28-point favorite Wednesday night. Injuries up front on the offensive line and a rotten running game—even against a lightweight like Liberty in week 1 the Deacons managed just 98 rushing yards—are going to hurt Wake Forest against a potential juggernaut in FSU. QB Tanner Price is averaging more than 12 yards per completion, but he can't get solid protection, leading to a pair of sacks and picks on the young season. Expect his problems with hurries to worsen this weekend, as FSU has recorded seven sacks on the young season, albeit against far inferior competition. FSU's two games against the hapless Murray State and clinically dead totally hapless Savannah State tell very little about the team. We do know they have a top-flight QB in EJ Manuel, who has been on a hot streak for the last four games leading back to last season; we do know they have one of the best D-lines in the nation; we also know they've struggled against Wake Forest, losing four of their last six to the Deacons. This game will be very telling, and I'm not sure yet if I'd get near 28 points.

TCU -21 @ Kansas
TCU enters its first game in the Big 12 as a bit of an unknown—we learned very little in a 56-0 blowout against Grambling State in week 2. QB Casey Pachall is tailor-built for the Big 12's pass-happy league and has an impressive group of WRs and an OL that gave up only a sack per game last season and returns this year as a more experienced unit, led by guard Blaize Foltz. The defense won't knock your socks off, but it gets progressively stronger as you get toward the linebackers and backfield and won't give away many plays—a hallmark of Gary Patterson-coached squads. Kansas, surprise surprise, cannot pass the ball this season or protect QB Dayne Crist, who has been sacked twice and intercepted thrice in the Jayhawks 1-1 start. The o-line's lost 75 starts since last year and Crist's only passing for 156 yards per game this season. KU is 12-16 ATS as a home dog in the past 10 years.

Texas A&M -12 @ SMU
We're going to find out a lot about these Ponies this week. They've suffered a blowout loss to Baylor before turning around and spanking Stephen F. Austin. The offensive line is a joke—allowing three sacks and failing to launch a good group of running backs but somehow sustaining a pretty strong passing game. A&M has a solid defense—especially the linebackers—and forced five punts and two field goals in last week's loss against Florida, a less functional but more talented offense than they'll see this week. Keep an eye on the Aggies' junior defensive end Damontre Moore, who has three tackles for loss for 21 combined yards—he can wreak havoc against an O-line like SMU's. I have a feeling, though, that this game will come down to A&M's offense—will Johnny Manziel get the protection he needs to move A&M down the field? He was sacked three times last week and needs more time to pick a team like this apart.

Week 3: Let's have a Holy War!

By Kyle Magin

Nothing gets me stoked for the weekend like a good, old fashioned blood feud. Take it away, state of Utah:

Are you amped for a little LDS–on–gentile violence? I can't wait for the showdown in Provo Saturday, as well as USC's visit to Palo Alto. UCLA is intriguing—is their start flash or something real and sustainable? 

Utah @ BYU -4
The BYU Cougars are looking for a little revenge after two straight losses to the Utes, including last year's 54-10 drubbing at The U in Salt Lake City. They might just get it this year—the Cougars' defense has been outstanding, giving up an average of just 239 yards per game and 19 total points. Granted those stats were accumulated against fairly pedestrian competition—Washington State and Weber State—but the offense has also bordered on the spectacular, averaging 305 passing yards per game behind the sure leadership of Senior QB Riley Nelson. Utah's offense, on the other hand, looked like a mess last week in a bad loss to Utah State. Senior QB Jon Hays was putrid coming in for the injured, and now retired, Jordan Wynn last weekend, completing less than half of his passes while more than a third of the drives he led ended in 3 & outs, and more than half in punts. Now, we can chalk that up to preparedness, but Hays had better be ready to go to the air, because BYU is holding opponents to just 55 yards rushing per game. The Utes slightly undersized o-line may be the difference in this one against an experienced and talented BYU front 7.

USC -8 @ Stanford
Only SC could win 49-29, shut an explosive pass offense out for one half and have that be considered a disappointment, but the Trojans managed the feat. Syracuse is a team SC should have blown the doors off of, and it is a team that maybe exposed the Trojans' pass D just a little bit, but this is still a team averaging 290 passing yards while senior QB Matt Barkley tossed 10 touchdowns in two games. It is a team that managed 258 yards on the ground last week. This week it'll face a Stanford team with a stout defense, giving up just 1.2 yards per rush last week and closing out a surprisingly sloppy performance against San Jose State by holding the Spartans to 3 & outs in four of their last five drives—the fifth drive ending in interception caused by QB pressure. Led by Senior LB Shayne Skov, the Cardinal defense is truly dirty, but the offense led by Junior QB Josh Nunes has been troubled. Just 85th in passing yards and 93rd in rushing yards, I'm not sure Stanford has enough to keep up with the SC attack—even if it stalls.

Houston @ UCLA -17
UCLA's offense is on turbo mode right now—averaging 343 rush yards and more than 300 passing yards per game behind the leadership of true frosh QB Brett Hundley. The only worry is that his reticence to throw and his o-line has led to his being sacked 5 times in two games—and dinged because of it. But, Houston's pass rush has been downright miserable, getting exposed in two straight losses. Houston can score with the best of them—the offense is ranked 4th in the nation right now—but until it can stop someone, that over is looking tasty.

Week 3: I don't care for Auburn

By Kyle Magin

Honestly, who predicted the positions Tennessee and Auburn would be in going into week 3? The Vols looks like a potential player on the national stage—forget the suspect SEC LEast. Head Coach Derek Dooley is off the hot seat and playing host to one of the hottest college football tickets in town Saturday when the Gators come on up to Rocky Top. Meanwhile, the moribund Tigers are 0-2 and rudderless, looking a far cry from the team that won the national title just two seasons ago. Suddenly, Head Coach Gene Chizik is on the hot seat because Alabamans have no goddamn sense. He won you a title two years ago. I'm going to turn it over to Early and T-Pain:

To the games!

Louisiana–Monroe @ Auburn -16.5 
War Eagle vs. Warhawk took on a whole new dimension last week when La. Monroe beat Arkansas at home—which would normally be good news for the Tigers, except they're winless heading into the matchup. Auburn is hapless on the offensive side of the ball at first glance—QB Kiehl Frazier is completing a wretched 49 percent of his throws and has tossed four picks. What's worse is his rushing game—accounting for just 135 yards per game and just 3.6 yards per carry. The lone bright spot is when Frazier does throw completions he is averaging 13.3 yards, a stat that'd be encouraging if Louisiana–Monroe wasn't a team that just held the vaunted Razorback passing attack to 11 first downs and a 42 percent completion percentage. On this blog I have a history of supporting the little guy, sometimes to a fault, so let's clear the air: Auburn is a supremely talented team and should roll easily. But, we know very little about where this team's head is right now, and the line fluctuated wildly when it was first released, bouncing from -16 to -19 to its current holding pattern at 16.5.

Alabama -19.5 @ Arkansas
Books are scared to death of this game (there's a Southern illiteracy joke in there I'm not going to touch) and you should be too. A lot of books don't have a line posted yet, and the ones who do waited until today to open with a 19 or 19.5. There are a lot of questions right now and unless you feel really confident about Nick Saban's Tide—there's almost no reason not too—then stand pat. Arkansas had a helluva struggle last week and supposedly all–world QB Tyler Wilson struggled and suffered an apparent concussion. Wilson's status is key to the game and the line, if he is healthy, Arkansas' chances do nothing but improve behind the senior who averaged more than 13 yards per completion last year and tossed 24 TDs. I don't need to tell you who he's lining up against, though. The Tide defense has held opponents to 493 yards of combined offense in two games. 'Bama is averaging 16.3 yards per completion to opponents' 12.2. They've allowed one passing touchdown and exactly zero scores in the first and fourth quarters of either of their games. Wilson had better be ready.

Florida @ Tennessee -3
Tennessee has some absolute monsters on offense, with QB Tyler Bray completing passes at a 73 percent clip and tossing 6 touchdowns so far in the young season. WR Cordarrelle Patterson is a beast, averaging more than 18 yards per catch with longs of 84 yards receiving and 67 yards rushing. The Tennessee machine—which, by the way, is holding opponents to just about 100 yards rushing per game—faces a Florida squad that is also 2-0 but has been unspectacular in two outings. The Gator D has stood tall—allowing less than 16 points per game, but the rushing game has struggled and QB Jeff Driskell is still trying to find his rhythm and has been protected by the coaching staff, throwing only 32 times in his first two games. He'll need to step it up to keep up with Tennessee, especially at Rocky Top.

Week 3: Midwest Monday

By Kyle Magin

Many teams go into reputation-establishing battle Saturday.

Only a few can come out. In the land of meat and potatoes, Michigan State welcomes Notre Dame into Spartan Stadium, while Cal takes its wildly inconsistent defense into Ohio State. Then, Wisconsin, the poor, hapless Badgers, welcome in Utah State in what's sure to be a total pillow fight throwdown. Wisconsin is looking to find out if last week's loss to Oregon State was just a fluke or if this is going to be a long season at Camp Randall, while Ohio State takes a shot at a high-powered out-of-conference foe and ND goes to MSU to try to extend its winning streak to two games. Let's take a look at the matchups.

Notre Dame @ Michigan State -4
The Irish had problems at home against Purdue last week, barely scraping by as the offense struggled to gain ground with the rushing attack and had to lean on a suspect pass game to get by. That'll be a problem against the Spartans, who are holding opposing passing games to less than a 48 percent completion percentage and 200 yards per game. Opposing rushing attacks aren't doing any better against the Spartan D. The Irish have been strong against opposing pass offenses, which bodes poorly for MSU's attack, led by the still-inexperienced QB Andrew Maxwell. Still, as stated earlier, this is a special Spartan Defense.

Cal @ Ohio State -18
In Cal's one game against a competitive team this season—a 31-24 loss to Nevada—it gave up 9.2 yards per completion, something you can bet tOSU coach Urban Meyer is taking note of. If Braxton Miller can force Cal into man to man pass coverage with his legs—a tall order given Cal's fairly strong defense against the run—he'll open up room for a few bombs and it'll be a long day for the boys from Berkeley. Cal QB Zach Maynard has run hot and cold but got very hot last week against Southern Utah, and is averaging north of 13 yards per completion. OSU is strong in the 'Shoe, though.

Utah State @ Wisconsin -14
Utah State appears to actually have a really good defense—holding opponents to 11.5 points per game. Quarterback Chuckie Keeton is completing passes at a 77 percent rate—throwing for nearly 12 yards with every completion while his rushing attack averages a little better than 5 yards per carry. Wisconsin cannot get its offense going, struggling mightily in the rushing game with Montee Ball having a difficult time getting his season going. If Ball and Co. can't buy QB Danny O'Brien more time in the passing game, it'll be a tall order for the Badgers to keep up with Keeton and the Aggies.

Week 3: Redemption Song

By Kyle Magin

TNG is back! After a rough week 1, we came back in a big way with Friday's picks, going 8-4 as a unit. We're still under .500 on the season at 11-13, but it's still young. For your notes, Big Tex and Kyle went 3-1 and Marcus came out even at 2-2.

In week 3 we step back into a world of ranked matchups—Michigan State and Notre Dame, Tennessee and Florida, USC and Stanford—and a week that (probably) won't finish with the largest line ever issued by Vegas as Savannah State is taking a week off of playing Republican Guard vs. US military. Let's take a look at the upcoming week:

Wake @ FSU -24
Cal @ Ohio State -18
TCU -20.5 @ Kansas
La. Monroe @ Auburn -16
Alabama @ Arkansas
A&M -13.5 @ SMU
Florida @ Tenn -2
USC -9 @ Stanford
ND@MSU -4
USU@Wisc -14
BYU -4 @Utah
Houston @ UCLA -17

**Boxing**
Sergio "Maravilla" Martinez -185 vs. Julia Caesar Chavez, Jr.

Notes: Florida State hasn't been tested yet this season, will they be ready for Wake's pass attack?...Cal Quarterback Zach Maynard will need to improve his passing efficiency...Kansas' Charlie Weis gets his first crack at a Big 12 opponent...Louisiana Monroe-Auburn opened a few hours ago at -17, maybe Vegas is scared of the Warhawks?...'Bama-Arkansas looked huge before yesterday...A&M gets a breather after Florida...Florida, on the other hand, goes to Rocky Top...Big matchup in the Pac 12 between USC-Stanford, or will Stanford be unmasked?...Notre Dame plays its first true road game...Wisconsin looks to bounce back from a demoralizing loss against a USU team riding high...The Holy War is less compelling football after the Utes loss...UCLA QB Brett Hundley is becoming must-watch TV...Maravilla is a favorite with a lot more to fight for.

Week 2: The picks are in! The picks are in!

By TNG

Let's try this again, shall we? After a miserable week of picking games (TNG went 3-9 as a unit last week) we're back to try our hand at guiding your bets this weekend. Some of us swore off betting on our teams, others turned to voodoo and some have adopted a minimalist's stance on defending these picks up front. Whatever the strategy, let's hope like hell it works, because (6 second mark):

Let's get to it.

Big Tex says... 

Season record: 1-3

Last week: 1-3

Big Tex perhaps ate a Texas–sized piece of humble pie, or actually has, you know, a busy life. Either way, he wins the award for shortest picks ever by a TNG picker. Good job, or something.

Texas Tech @ Texas State

Over 59.5 points

The total has gone OVER in eight of Tech's last 11 games.

New Mexico +38.5 @ Texas

Texas is 7-16-1 ATS in its last 24 games at home.

Penn State @ Virginia -9.5
Virginia to cover only because Penn State is not good.

Illinois@ Arizona State -3.5
I like ASU to cover. 

Marcus says...

Season record: 1-3

Last week: 1-3

Michigan St. -20 @ Central Michigan

I witnessed Sparty's 2009 embarrassing home loss at the hands of CMU, but also was there for the beat down MSU put on the Chips in 2011.  Last weeks game showed that Andrew Maxwell has some work to do, but also that Le'Veon Bell is a horse.  Sparty doubled about Boise in time of possession on the back of Bell.  Central Michigan opened with a win against SE Missouri State on the strength of two 100 yard rushers.  I don't see that performance duplicated and while Kelly / Shorts Stadium will be at a fever pitch, this game will be over at halftime.  Take MSU to cover. 

Wisconsin -7 @ Oregon State
Wiscy ALMOST ruined their season in week 1, barely getting by Northern Iowa.  Cinderella story if you lose to the Panthers in the NCAA basketball tournament.  Flat out embarrassing in football.  New transfer QB Danny O'Brien didn't turn the ball over and completed 83% of his passes, but the memory of last years transfer-rule exploitation, er sensation, Russell Wilson will continue to linger.  Oregon State had their week 1 postponed as Hurricane Isaac kept Nicholls State in Louisiana.  Corvallis will be rocking, but Wisconsin will have a chip on their shoulder from last week.  Montee Ball explodes, take the Badgers to cover.

Air Force +21 @ Michigan
The Wolverines plummeted in the polls after the beat down they took at the hands of Bama last week.  Michigan was clearly outmatched as the Crimson Tide showed they've reloaded and are ready to make another BCS title run.  Michigan has to be concerned about their rush defense after giving up 200+.  While Air Force isn't Alabama they are one of the most potent rushing attacks in college football.  Cody Getz rushed for 218 yards on 17 carries last week against Idaho State.  I expect Denard to get loose and the Wolverines to win this one, but not by 3 TDs.  I'm taking Air Force and the points.

Purdue @ Notre Dame -14

This game will be our live tweet (cell service permitting) of the week as I will be inside Notre Dame Stadium taking in the home opener.  Sophomore QB Everett Golson did enough in his first career start last week in Dublin to keep Tommy Rees on the sideline.  Rees, a Junior who started most of last year, is back from a one game suspension.  Golson moved the offense down the field and only turned the ball over once.  The Boilers will go with Senior QB Caleb TerBush who also served a suspension last week.  Former Miami Hurricane QB Robert Marve played well in last week's opener but will be back to backup duties in South Bend.  The Irish ground attack led the way against Navy and expects to be on display again as Golson continues to get more comfortable.  I'm taking ND to cover.  

Kyle says...
Season record: 1-3
Last week: 1-3

Michigan State -20 @ Central Michigan
The Spartans struggled last week on offense, true enough, but praise for the work the defense did was lost in the shuffle. MSU pitched a shutout of Boise State in the second half, holding the Broncos to four drives averaging less than 2:30 and ending in three punts and a turnover on downs. They brutalized Boise in the back half of the game, and that's important to remember against a team like the Chips, who may have a strong set of starters but are woefully thin and young on the bench. If the Spartan defense can shorten the offense's stay in a similar way, Central's defense gets tested and will have to sub in new bodies. That's when State RB Le'Veon Bell goes to work—he totaled close to 180 yards in the second half last week. Central did work on the ground last week, too, but QB Ryan Radcliff struggled through the air, and if MSU can load up on the line, it'll be a long night in Flat Misery. Spartans to cover. 

Purdue @ Notre Dame -14.5
The Fighting Irish looked really good in Dublin last week, hanging a 50 spot on Navy in a predawn drubbing. Purdue looked very solid in its opener vs. Eastern Kentucky, and QB Robert Marve was extremely accurate passing the ball. He'll need to stay that way if he'd like to remain undefeated against the Irish, who, behind senior LB Manti Te'o, stuffed the run very effectively. The Irish were vulnerable against the pass and gave up close to 10 yards per attempt, but I believe that's more a function of Navy passing to play catchup than the Irish bending too far. Look for the Irish to swamp one of the B1G's weakest links. ND to cover. 

Washington @ LSU -24
I vacillated heavily (is that a medical condition!?) over this one, finally deciding the Bayou Bengals will be just too much for the Dawgs. The LSU offense, under Zach Mettenberger, averaged just less than 7 yards per rush and just more than 10 yards per completion last week. Now, facing a better pass defense in Washington with Shaq Thompson and Desmond Trufant, Mettenberger won't have it quite as easy, but he'll still have the rush game to back him up, which is more than his counterpart Keith Price can say for U-Dub. San Diego State stuffed Washington's rush game last week, allowing just a little more than 100 yards, and LSU's defense is at least twice as good. Forcing Price to the air that much more often ups his chances for a f---up, and nobody capitalizes on turnovers like this LSU D. I'm taking the Tigers to cover. 

Florida @ Texas A&M -1
Pressure is the name of this game—A&M enters their first SEC matchup a home favorite, and after Florida's shaky outing last week, the Gators need to make a statement. In Florida's shockingly close win over Bowling Green last week, the defense did tighten up as the game went on—especially on BG's rush game. RB Mike GIllislee ensured Florida won the crucial time of possession battle to keep them ahead. We still don't know anything about this A&M team yet, outside of the fact that they're breaking in a new quarterback. If last week's games were any indication, that's no easy task, especially if the Gator D can hamper the Aggies ability to pass. I look for Florida to cover.