Week 8: The picks are in! The picks are in!

By TNG Staff

Sorry, another in a string of analysis-free posts. The Tigers are going to the World Series, what can I say? I've been distracted. Let's get to it.

Kyle says...

This season: 17-11

Last week: 2-2

Not the best outcome last week, but you didn't lose money betting with me and you're up on the season.

Nebraska @ Northwestern +7

The Huskers' D has another thing coming if they think they'll shut down the Wildcats attack. Get down to the book and lay the Cats to keep it thisclose, if not win. Northwestern beats the spread. 

BYU @ Notre Dame -13

Robbed of their ability to throw a changeup when freshman QB Taysom Hill went down, the Riley Nelson-led BYU offense won't be able to give the Irish front line enough different looks to hold them off. ND covers easily. 

Stanford -3 @ Cal

Cal has improved since we last covered them here, but never underestimate Tedford's ability to blow a big game. Stanford covers in Berkeley. 

Michigan State +9 @ Michigan

The Spartan offense is pathetic heading into this matchup, and Andrew Maxwell is not ready for prime time. HOWEVAH, this is the best defensive front 7 outside of Alabama that Denard Robinson has seen all year, and we know how well he holds up against the rush. Spartans beat the spread. 

Marcus says...

This season: 12-12

Last week: Idle

After taking a week off, I'm back to get above .500.  Tigers in the Series though?  Life is so good.

Michigan State @ Michigan -9

MSU beats the spread if their offense gets it together.  I'm losing faith.  The Wolverines are due. Michigan covers.  Signed, Pessimistic Spartan fan in Naperville.

Western Michigan @ Kent State -3.5

After last weeks collapse in Muncie it's hard to trust the Broncos on the road.  Flashes cover.

Purdue @ Ohio State -18

The Buckeyes cover.  Braxton Miller for Heisman.

Cincinnati -5.5 @ Toledo 

A North - South Ohio battle at The Glass Bowl.   Cincy may be the tallest midget in the Big Least, but they cover against the Rockets.

Big Tex says...

This season: 12-11

Last week: 0-5

Welp, I have to admit, I was not totally expecting Big Tex to get back in the game after totally bombing every pick he made last week, including the NFL bonus, which does not count against his season record. But he's back for more and still above .500 after an oh-fer, so we'll call it a fluke and see what he has to say this week.

Louisville -6.5 vs. USF

Louisville covers. 

USC vs. Colorado +40.5

Buffs beat the spread.

LSU -3 @ Texas A&M

LSU covers. 

Oklahoma State vs. Iowa State +14

Cyclones beat the spread.

Texas vs. Baylor +11

Baylor beats the spread. 

Georgia -27.5 @ Kentucky

Bulldogs cover.

Oregon State -10 vs. Utah

Beavs cover. 

Rutgers -5 @ Temple

Rutgers covers

NFL Bonus

By TNG Staff

Big Tex took it in the pants yesterday, so he'll try to get back on the horse here.

Green Bay @ Houston -3

Denver @ San Diego +1

Week 7: The picks are in! The picks are in!

TNG staff
Alright, this is the last post I'll short you on analysis for. But, we're your money maker.

Kyle says...
This season: 15-9
Last week: 3-1
We are scorching earth with these picks. If you're betting with TNG, you're way up on the season at this point. Let's take a look at Kyle's picks for this week...

Texas +3.5 vs. Oklahoma (Dallas)
I'm taking the Horns because Landry Jones melts under pressure and the UT DTs can bring it. Texas beats the spread. 

USC -13 @ Washington
SC has too much offense for U-Dub and wins big in a high scoring affair. Trojans cover. 

Fresno State @ Boise State -7
The Broncos' defense has been dominant all year, and FSU has nadda on that side of the ball. Boise covers. 

Stanford @ Notre Dame -7
Chalk again as the Irish D proves too much for the Cardinal, who are traveling to the midwest in October—not the forte of warm weather kids. Irish cover. 

Big Tex says...
This season: 12-6
Last week: 5-1
Big Tex is tearing it up in his first season at TNG.

Kansas State -6.5 @ Iowa State
Wildcats to cover. 

WVU -4.5 @ Texas Tech
Big Tex picks the Mountaineers to cover and picks against his wife's alma mater. We'll let them square that decision.

Oregon State @ BYU -2.5
Cougars cover. 

Texas +3.5 vs. Oklahoma
Horns beat the spread.

Alabama @ Missouri +21.5
Mizzou beats the spread. 

Week 7: Keggs and Bacon

By Kyle Magin

Texas and Oklahoma are forcing us to get up really effing early on the West Coast (8 a.m.!) so I'm going to grouch via video.

That was cathartic, I think. Onto football. We've got a tremendous slate of games involving teams from West of the Mississippi this weekend: Stanford heads to Notre Dame, the aforementioned Red River Shootout, Oregon State and BYU and USC heading up to Seattle.

Texas vs. Oklahoma -3.5 (Dallas) 
UT's defense is not good. Oklahoma is shaky, but WHEN the Sooners get Landry Jones protection, he can find holes in the backfield to the tune of 11.3 yards per completion. He's getting great help from his rush game, but OU, completely logistically, doesn't bother to run all that much. Of course. Texas' offense is solid aside from a pesky penchant for fumbling the ball—8 times so far this season. Its defense has a miserable habit of giving up big plays—opponents managed 13.5 yards per catch against the 1-loss Horns through the first half of the season, and time and again last week West Virginia's receivers got loose for long plays. If Jones can find his receivers, it'll be a long day in the Cotton Bowl, but, few teams get to the passer like Texas' d-ends.

Southern Cal -12 @ Washington
We all know Washington is hapless against the run game. USC has difficulties protecting its quarterback. Watch for SC to try to manufacture some protection for Matt Barkley with Silas Redd and the boys in the run game before going to the air.

Oregon State @ BYU -6
Oregon State is ranked 10th and still getting no love. I understand Provo is no easy place to play, but the Cougars' offense has been so and up and down this season while the Beavers have been rock solid.

Stanford @ Notre Dame -7.5
Big play Ty Montgomery, a receiver for the Cardinal, is likely hurt and out for game in South Bend. That's a problem, because any headway opponents have made this year against the Irish has been through the air. UND strangles opposing offenses, giving up just 39 percent of opposing third down conversions and a minuscule 17 percent of red zone scores as touchdowns. If you get off on the Irish, consider yourself lucky.

Week 7: Games we're watching

By Kyle Magin
Consumed with a trip to Oakland to watch the Tigers try to sweep the A's in game 3 of the ALDS, you'll get a brief Monday-Tuesday post here.

Texas vs. Oklahoma -3
Can UT bounce back in Dallas after a demoralizing lost last week at home to West Virginia?

Louisville -3 @ Pittsburgh

Fresno State @ Boise State -7.5
Fresno's all-world offenses clashes with an immovable object in the Broncos' D.

Stanford @ Notre Dame -9.5
Best defensive matchup of the day.

South Carolina @ LSU -3
SC is in the title hunt and LSU hasn't convinced in any win since early September.

West Virginia -4.5 @ Texas Tech
How much juice does the Mountaineer offense have left?

Week 6: The Picks are in! The Picks are in!

TNG Staff

I hope you're keeping an eye on TNG and taking our advice this season, because if you are, you're making money. We're a combined 29-23 on the season. I'll let Luda tell you the rest...

Kyle says...

This season: 12-8

Last week: 3-1

Northwestern +3 @ Penn State

The Wildcats offense is too dynamic for the Lions, even on homecoming. NW beats the spread. 

Washington @ Oregon -25

The Duck defense makes the difference in this game. Quack to cover. 

Georgia @ South Carolina -1.5

Georgia's defense has too many holes for the ol' Ballcoach to exploit. Cocks cover. 

West Virginia @ Texas -6.5

The Horns have some pieces on defense, and that's more than W. Va, despite the fireworks. Horns cover. 

Marcus says...

This season: 10-10

Last week: 3-1

Northwestern +3 @ Penn State

UMass @ Western Michigan -16.5

Michigan State -15.5 @ Indiana

Northern Illinois -2.5 @ Ball State

Big Tex says...

This season: 7-5

Last week: Idle

Kansas State -23.5 vs Kansas

Texas -6.5 vs WVU

Ohio State -3.5 vs Nebraska

Mississippi State -9.5 @ Kentucky

Oklahoma -5.5 @ Texas Tech

Clemson -9.5 vs Georgia Tech

Week 6: Just Ducky

By Kyle Magin
Nike's Oregon Duck army circles the wagons in Eugene this weekend when he Dogs come to town, looking for their second straight upset win. SC continues to trot through the desert of dashed expectations, and, oddly, a win over a struggling Utah squad could give them a hand. In Palo Alto, we find out onetime heroes, the Stanford Cardinal, look to get back on top against the once-feared and now-jeered Arizona Wildcats.

Southern California -14.5 @ Utah
SC's defense is relatively stout—giving up just 17.3 points per game against some pretty strong offenses. Leonard Williams is taking care of things up front and putting pressure on opposing offenses while Dion Bailey lurks in the defensive backfield. To almost everyone's surprise, it's the Trojan O led by QB Matt Barkley letting the U of Spoiled Children down. Barkley's completing just 55 percent of his passes and the offense is miserable on third down. Utah's Star Lotulelei and co are shutting opposing offenses down on third zone and in the red zone. The Utes offense can't put up any points, though.

Washington @ Oregon -24
What's there to say? The Ducks are 24 point favorites because their defense is starting to shut people down, and their offense outscores opponents 91-19 in the first quarter. The Duck D shuts down opposing offenses in the red zone, where they only manage to score TDs 30 percent of the time and convert on third downs just 25 percent of the time. Ho-hum for the O, where Oregon rushes for 6 yards per carry and does all sorts of wild things through the air. The Huskies are Giant Killers because Keith Price and company continue to win the time of possession battle and have minimized turnovers.

Arizona @ Stanford -9
Stanford plays defense!

Week 6: Two go in, one comes out

By Kyle Magin
Three games down south this weekend feature undefeated teams facing off against one another in a cage-match like scenario: Only one leaves with its record unblemished. Prepare accordingly.

Georgia @ South Carolina -2
Go ahead and open another tab and light up the Rocky theme song while you read this. I'll wait. Georgia goes into South Carolina at 5-0 and riding high after a shootout victory over Tennessee last week. The offense is on fire—QB Aaron Murray is making pretty good decisions with the ball and RBs Todd Gurley and Keith Marshall are blowing defenders away to the tune of 8 yards per carry. The defense, charitably, though, looks like shit. That's in stark contrast to SC, who has its own all-world running back in Marcus Lattimore and a defense that holds opposing offenses to less than 300 yards per game, 27 percent on third down conversions and 25 percent on red zone touchdowns. Simply put, it's hard to sustain drives against DL Ja'Daveon Clowney and Co. I think this game comes down to SC's ability to shut down a dangerous Georgia offense, because they'll likely have success against a team that gave up nearly 5 yards per rush last week.

West Virginia @ Texas -7
Sure, Texas has stars on its defense—Jackson Jeffcoat, Alex Okafor, Kenny Vaccaro—but as a team, the defense is at best suspect. That's not exactly where you want to be going against Mr. 20 TD HEISMAN WINNER HOPEFUL Geno Smith and his immensely talented receivers, Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey. Smith is currently the most efficient quarterback in college football with an 83.4 percent completion rate while piloting the offense with the highest total yardage, yardage per catch and passing touchdown total in the nation. But his defense is a joke, and UT has been nothing short of stellar on offense. QB David Ash is completing passes at a 77 percent rate and getting loads of support from his multi-faceted run game. We've said it here before and we'll say it again, teams utilizing their run game to win the time of possession put the game's math in their favor. Add in the slight home field advantage Texas gets and a few plays from its defensive stars and it could be a rude welcome to Austin for the Mountaineers.

LSU -3 @ Florida
In the past, LSU has been able to bully Florida with a superior rushing game. In this year's edition, though, the Gators come in with a run game and defense more than holding their own nationally—ranked 20th and 10th, respectively. The Tigers get the nod on offense, if only slightly, because Florida's pass game is still such a shambles right now. Zach Mettenberger, now a confirmed "Anchorman" fan—seriously, Google 'Zach Mettenberger Ron Burgundy'—hits for 13 yards per pass when he does complete them and has a solid run game to buy him time in the pocket. Florida's RB Mike Gillislee must seize the initiative and continue to gain close to 6 yards per carry to keep the Gators in business inside what's sure to be a raucous Swamp atmosphere.

Week 6: Bangarang

By Kyle Magin
Week 6 is going to be intense. Penn State is on a three game winning streak and the undefeated Northwestern Wildcats come to town in what could very well be described as PSU's bowl game. In the Northwest, UW takes its upset-minded show on the road to Eugene, where Oregon knows its one game away from kissing its title hopes goodbye. West Virginia goes on the road to Austin, where Texas' defense is looking for its backbone after a shootout victory last week over Oklahoma State. Down south, Georgia heads up the road to Columbia for its date with the Old Ballcoach and a chance to remain in the national title discussion. Week 6 makes Kyle feel:

RU-FI-OHHHHHHH...

Northwestern @ Penn State -3
Northwestern "QB" Kain Colter is one of football's most dangerous men right now. He actually throws very little, but completes his passes for 8-plus yards, averages 6-plus yards passing and lines up at reciever—where he's good for 14-plus yards per catch. Combine him with actual strong arm QB Trevor Siemian and his 69 percent completion average and you have an electric duo in the undefeated Wildcat offense. Penn State is equally dangerous, though, for different reasons. The 3-2 Nittany Lions swing for the fences—with a depleted roster its their best strategy. They are among the league leaders in going for it on fourth down and fourth down conversions, and their pass game accounts for 60-plus percent of their first downs and almost twice the yardage as they've gained on the ground. Northwestern is weak defensively against the pass—giving up 11.6 yards per catch—and on homecoming, I'd look for the Lions to air it out plenty against NW. But, the Wildcats are good on third down (converting 54 percent of the time), much better than PSU, and I can see them winning time of possession if PSU's pass game falters.

Miami vs. Notre Dame -13.5 (Chicago)
This is an Admiral Ackbar game for the Irish if I've ever seen one. Miami, by all rights, should not be 3-1 and in the driver's seat in the ACC. The Canes blow on defense, have a perplexingly unbalanced offense weighted toward passing and are getting stomped out by nearly 10 MINUTES PER GAME in time of possession. The only thing floating this goddamn roster is QB Stephen Morris and his nine passing touchdowns and 320-plus yards per game passing. Therein lies the rub for the Irish—for this defense's many strengths and accomplishments, they have not been tested against a good passing team. Manti Te'o and co are adept at putting pressure on opposing passers and minimizing the time their DBs are forced to cover opposing receivers. If Morris can use his legs to extend that time frame we could see the ND corners tested, something that hasn't really happened yet. The Irish have 14 sacks, though, in their undefeated start. And, they're winning time of possession by a little more than two minutes and RBs Cierre Wood and George Aktinson are grabbing big yards in limited carries while Theo Riddick remains the unit's workhorse.

Nebraska @ Ohio State -3
Nebraska's sole loss came on the road this season, while the undefeated Buckeyes have been shaky but are getting the job done. A big reason for that is the work of their experienced offensive line, which is getting the Buckeye backs a huge push to work with—and they're taking advantage of it to the tune of 5.1 yards per rush. You put up those kind of numbers and you're going to own the line of scrimmage—something Nebraska's D isn't giving up without a fight, holding opponents to less than 3.5 yards per carry. I think this might come down to T. Magic—Nebraska QB Taylor Martinez—and his big-play ability. He's passing for nearly 13 yards per completion—good enough to negate any time of possession advantage gained by the Buckeyes' Braxton Miller, who is still a suspect passer.