By Kyle Magin
Again, you just want the picks, let's get to it.
Kyle says...
Season Record: 9-7
Last Week: 3-1
UCLA -20 @ Colorado
UCLA covers.
Texas -2.5 @ Oklahoma State
Texas covers.
Georgia @ Tennessee +14
Tennessee to cover.
Wisconsin @ Nebraska -11.5
Nebraska to cover.
Friday, September 28, 2012
Week 5: The picks are in!
Shortened version again this week, but the picks are what you really want any way. Here we go...
Marcus says...
Season Record: 7-9
Last Week: 1-3
Indiana @ Northwestern -11
Take the Wildcats to cover in Evanston.
Central Michigan @ Northern Illinois -10
The Chips played well at Iowa last week, but the letdown is coming in DeKalb. Take the Huskies to cover.
Ohio State +2.5 @ Michigan State
Take the Buckeyes and the points.
Toledo @ Western Michigan -1.5
Take the Broncos to cover under the lights at Waldo.
Marcus says...
Season Record: 7-9
Last Week: 1-3
Indiana @ Northwestern -11
Take the Wildcats to cover in Evanston.
Central Michigan @ Northern Illinois -10
The Chips played well at Iowa last week, but the letdown is coming in DeKalb. Take the Huskies to cover.
Ohio State +2.5 @ Michigan State
Take the Buckeyes and the points.
Toledo @ Western Michigan -1.5
Take the Broncos to cover under the lights at Waldo.
Thursday, September 27, 2012
Week 5: Get ya Horns up
By Kyle Magin
Let's go to Mobilehoma, on purpose. It's OK, the locals are out fisting for fish. Don't ask. We'll follow the Longhorns up to the land of sad Indians and T. Boone Pickens. For some reasonAmerica's asshole Oklahoma produces some pretty good college football quarterbacks. Like the 2011 edition of Landry Jones and Brandon Weeden. And the 2012 edition of Landry Jones and Wes Lunt. Wait, lome again? (see what I did there?)
Central Plains REPRESENT!
Texas -2.5 @ Oklahoma State
The Longhorns go into Stillwater looking to avenge three straight losses to the Pokes, who've had their number lately. This isn't the 2010 (Thank God) or the 2011 edition of the Horns, though. The defensive line is the fiercest in the nation, and ends Alex Okafor and Jackson Jeffcoat are letting exactly nothing past them. QB David Ash is playing above everyone's expectations, completing 76-plus percent of his passes for nearly 13 yards per hookup. There's some question about whether or not OSU can make Ash uncomfortable in the pocket given the fact his second leading rusher—Joe Bergeron—is likely out for the game. Likely, all is not well on the UT defense, where linebacker Jordan Hicks is likely out and the defensive secondary has given up a glut of huge plays already. I'll guarantee Mike Gundy is going after UT DB Carring Byndom. But, I'm not sure he has the tools to do it. Lunt and J.W. Walsh have looked pretty pedestrian after a big opening win overBCS punching bag Savannah State and are coughing the ball up often. Texas is +6 in turnovers, and if they can win that battle Saturday, it'll be a long night for the Cowboys.
Virginia Tech -6.5 @ Cincinnati
Blacksburg plays host to two teams who have designs on conference titles late in the nonconference season. The undefeated Bearcats looked great against a then-sorry looking Pittsburgh team in their opener before coasting against Delaware. Not much can be gleaned from Cincy yet except that QB Munchie Legaux has one of the cooler names in college football. He's got accuracy problems and is a string bean, but does himself favors by overthrowing the defense when he's off and scrabling well out of the pocket when pressure is closing in. They'll need a big game from him Saturday if he's going to hold off a strong Tech defense. The 3-1 Hokies lost to Pittsburg, the common opponent, but it was a much different Panthers team than when Cincy saw them. Hokies QB Logan Thomas has been miserable this season, completing just a hair over half of his passes and taking eight sacks against some subpar competition. If Cincy can mount any sort of rush, it could tilt the time of possession in the Bearcats favor, giving them more possessions to work with and greater chance of putting more points on the board. Math!
Toledo @ Western Michigan -1.5
Saddle up Waldo, the Rockets are coming. Will Toledo expose the Broncos' one-dimensional offense and drop extra defenders into coverage, forcing WMU to win by rushing the ball, something they've proven they can't do? Even with the addition of former MSU G John Deyo, WMU just cannot get a push running the ball, and Toledo does have a time of possession advantage on opponents this season. That said, Toledo can't run the ball any better, and while QB Terrance Owens is surely WMU QB Alex Carder's superior when it comes to completions and yards per completion, Carder wins out when it counts, leading his team more effectively in the red zone (where the Bronco score 68 percent of the time to the Rockets' 50 percent) and per-game passing yardage. Neither defense has been spectacular, but I'd give the slight edge to Toledo.
Let's go to Mobilehoma, on purpose. It's OK, the locals are out fisting for fish. Don't ask. We'll follow the Longhorns up to the land of sad Indians and T. Boone Pickens. For some reason
Texas -2.5 @ Oklahoma State
The Longhorns go into Stillwater looking to avenge three straight losses to the Pokes, who've had their number lately. This isn't the 2010 (Thank God) or the 2011 edition of the Horns, though. The defensive line is the fiercest in the nation, and ends Alex Okafor and Jackson Jeffcoat are letting exactly nothing past them. QB David Ash is playing above everyone's expectations, completing 76-plus percent of his passes for nearly 13 yards per hookup. There's some question about whether or not OSU can make Ash uncomfortable in the pocket given the fact his second leading rusher—Joe Bergeron—is likely out for the game. Likely, all is not well on the UT defense, where linebacker Jordan Hicks is likely out and the defensive secondary has given up a glut of huge plays already. I'll guarantee Mike Gundy is going after UT DB Carring Byndom. But, I'm not sure he has the tools to do it. Lunt and J.W. Walsh have looked pretty pedestrian after a big opening win over
Virginia Tech -6.5 @ Cincinnati
Blacksburg plays host to two teams who have designs on conference titles late in the nonconference season. The undefeated Bearcats looked great against a then-sorry looking Pittsburgh team in their opener before coasting against Delaware. Not much can be gleaned from Cincy yet except that QB Munchie Legaux has one of the cooler names in college football. He's got accuracy problems and is a string bean, but does himself favors by overthrowing the defense when he's off and scrabling well out of the pocket when pressure is closing in. They'll need a big game from him Saturday if he's going to hold off a strong Tech defense. The 3-1 Hokies lost to Pittsburg, the common opponent, but it was a much different Panthers team than when Cincy saw them. Hokies QB Logan Thomas has been miserable this season, completing just a hair over half of his passes and taking eight sacks against some subpar competition. If Cincy can mount any sort of rush, it could tilt the time of possession in the Bearcats favor, giving them more possessions to work with and greater chance of putting more points on the board. Math!
Toledo @ Western Michigan -1.5
Saddle up Waldo, the Rockets are coming. Will Toledo expose the Broncos' one-dimensional offense and drop extra defenders into coverage, forcing WMU to win by rushing the ball, something they've proven they can't do? Even with the addition of former MSU G John Deyo, WMU just cannot get a push running the ball, and Toledo does have a time of possession advantage on opponents this season. That said, Toledo can't run the ball any better, and while QB Terrance Owens is surely WMU QB Alex Carder's superior when it comes to completions and yards per completion, Carder wins out when it counts, leading his team more effectively in the red zone (where the Bronco score 68 percent of the time to the Rockets' 50 percent) and per-game passing yardage. Neither defense has been spectacular, but I'd give the slight edge to Toledo.
Wednesday, September 26, 2012
Week 5: Hello Seattle
By Kyle Magin
Tomorrow, for the second time in a week, the eyes of the American football world turn upon Seattle. The Emerald City's beloved Huskies welcome Stanford's potent defense and running game to CenturyLink Field. I was super psyched about this game and wanted to post for you all a great song about Seattle, a city I've come to love since moving out west, then I found this:
Now I want to wear flannel and bang my head against a wall while listening to grunge.
Stanford -6.5 @ Washington
U-Dub comes into this game with major question marks, and Stanford comes in looking like a defensive juggernaut. Last we saw the Huskies, LSU pancaked them, laying 41 on the dogs and holding the offense to just three rushing first downs and six passing first downs, and eight of the Dogs' 12 drives ended in punts. Since then, they've managed to right the ship slightly with a win over Portland State, improving to 2-1 on the season. Stanford is on a roll at 3-0 and last we saw them, they dethroned the #3 USC Trojans by blanking the Barkley-led boys for the last three quarters of the game. Two USC drives advanced past five snaps, with most ending in three & outs. Opponents convert less than 25 percent of the time on third down against the Cardinal and score touchdowns in the red zone just 44 percent of the time. Stanford Free Safety Ed Reynolds is the best center fielder in football, defending or breaking up 7 passes and intercepting three more. His matchup against Husky QB Keith Price will be one of the more interesting matchups of the night, as Price's passes go for about 10 yards per reception. If he can get a little support from an anemic rush game, he might find space underneath against the Stanford corners and linebackers, and just maybe find something deep. Stanford QB Josh Nunes has some accuracy problems, but goes 12-plus yards when he does complete.
Hawaii @ BYU -27.5
BYU, I've come to find out, is the quintessential button mashing knob you used to hate playing dorm room NCAA football against on that PS2 you spilled the beer on. They pass without consciousness, completing just 57 percent of their throws, but connecting with wideouts for 11.4 yards per grab, though. This is not good for Hawaii, who gives up about 12.6 yards per catch with a weak, young secondary. BYU, though, can go very bad, like QB Riley Nelson did against Boise State last week, leading the Cougs to a whopping 6 points. Hawaii can make up ground with its fairly effective run game and awesome ability to score in the red zone—it happens 91 percent of the time. Head Coach Norm Chow's gameplans are a bitch to deal with, even for a solid defense like BYU's. The Cougs have a solid, solid group of experienced linebackers, though, and Hawaii has very little in terms of receiving, meaning we'll see BYU stack the box and force Hawaii to beat it over the top.
Oregon -30.5 @ Washington State (Seattle)
UO's defense is getting nothing but better, and that's bad news for Wazzou, already losing the time of possession battle by an average of 6 minutes per game. You don't play so much for home runs against the Ducks D as you play for time of possession. It sounds simple, but keeping the ball out of Chip Kelly's offense's hands is the best way to keep things close. With Wazzou giving up third downs at a 49 percent clip, expect to see Ducks QB Marcus Mariota a lot Saturday, which will translate to a lot of points.
Tomorrow, for the second time in a week, the eyes of the American football world turn upon Seattle. The Emerald City's beloved Huskies welcome Stanford's potent defense and running game to CenturyLink Field. I was super psyched about this game and wanted to post for you all a great song about Seattle, a city I've come to love since moving out west, then I found this:
Stanford -6.5 @ Washington
U-Dub comes into this game with major question marks, and Stanford comes in looking like a defensive juggernaut. Last we saw the Huskies, LSU pancaked them, laying 41 on the dogs and holding the offense to just three rushing first downs and six passing first downs, and eight of the Dogs' 12 drives ended in punts. Since then, they've managed to right the ship slightly with a win over Portland State, improving to 2-1 on the season. Stanford is on a roll at 3-0 and last we saw them, they dethroned the #3 USC Trojans by blanking the Barkley-led boys for the last three quarters of the game. Two USC drives advanced past five snaps, with most ending in three & outs. Opponents convert less than 25 percent of the time on third down against the Cardinal and score touchdowns in the red zone just 44 percent of the time. Stanford Free Safety Ed Reynolds is the best center fielder in football, defending or breaking up 7 passes and intercepting three more. His matchup against Husky QB Keith Price will be one of the more interesting matchups of the night, as Price's passes go for about 10 yards per reception. If he can get a little support from an anemic rush game, he might find space underneath against the Stanford corners and linebackers, and just maybe find something deep. Stanford QB Josh Nunes has some accuracy problems, but goes 12-plus yards when he does complete.
Hawaii @ BYU -27.5
BYU, I've come to find out, is the quintessential button mashing knob you used to hate playing dorm room NCAA football against on that PS2 you spilled the beer on. They pass without consciousness, completing just 57 percent of their throws, but connecting with wideouts for 11.4 yards per grab, though. This is not good for Hawaii, who gives up about 12.6 yards per catch with a weak, young secondary. BYU, though, can go very bad, like QB Riley Nelson did against Boise State last week, leading the Cougs to a whopping 6 points. Hawaii can make up ground with its fairly effective run game and awesome ability to score in the red zone—it happens 91 percent of the time. Head Coach Norm Chow's gameplans are a bitch to deal with, even for a solid defense like BYU's. The Cougs have a solid, solid group of experienced linebackers, though, and Hawaii has very little in terms of receiving, meaning we'll see BYU stack the box and force Hawaii to beat it over the top.
Oregon -30.5 @ Washington State (Seattle)
UO's defense is getting nothing but better, and that's bad news for Wazzou, already losing the time of possession battle by an average of 6 minutes per game. You don't play so much for home runs against the Ducks D as you play for time of possession. It sounds simple, but keeping the ball out of Chip Kelly's offense's hands is the best way to keep things close. With Wazzou giving up third downs at a 49 percent clip, expect to see Ducks QB Marcus Mariota a lot Saturday, which will translate to a lot of points.
Tuesday, September 25, 2012
Week 5: Bring out your dead.
By Kyle Magin
On Saturday John L. Smith and his Razorbacks head to College Station for their next stop in a season of ass-whoopings. I wonder if they don't feel like this already:
"I'm not dead yet!"
The SEC's most intriguing matchup just might be the Tennessee Volunteers going up against a confident, improving team of Georgia Bulldogs. We'll take a look at 'Bama just cause.
Arkansas @ Texas A&M -14
Whoa-ho-ho, bring your Serta pillows, because this is going to be one hell of a featherweight battle. In this corner, the Arkansas Razorbacks, proud owners of a 1-3 record and a third down conversion percentage of 28 percent! And in the other red corner, with a record of 2-1 with wins against nobody, the Texas A&M Aggies!
"Just fucking ring the bell, you pansy"—Joseph "Blue" Pulaski
Actually, A&M, while playing against inferior opponents, is actually putting together a competent-looking stat line. D-lineman Damontre Moore, with six sacks and eight tackles for loss is wreaking havoc in opposing backfields and is just the kind of player that could force fumbles and injuries of Arkansas backs who are getting exactly no protection from the Hogs offensive line. If the defense can keep the Hogs quiet in the first half its very balanced offense—passing and rushing plays are split nearly 50/50 and both strategies have been effective in the red zone, where the Aggies score at a 91 percent pace—will march on past Arkansas to its first SEC victory.
Tennessee @ Georgia -13
Tennessee heads down Between the Hedges to take on an absolute wrecking ball of a Georgia rushing attack (and pretty good passing attack, too.) The Dawgs' running backs are gaining about six yards per rush and the receivers are pulling in Aaron Murray bombs, averaging 16.2 yards per catch. The real star, though, is linebacker Jarvis Jones, who has tackled or sacked opposing offenses for a total loss of 88 yards. On his own. Add in interception yardage, and Jones has earned the Dawgs about 100 total yards. Tennessee isn't getting much help from its 59th-ranked rushing game, which could put an unreasonable amount of pressure on QB Tyler Bray, who is having a fantastic season but struggled against Florida, the best defense the Vols saw before this weekend's matchup. This is also the 3-1 Vols' first road game, which could spell trouble.
Mississippi @ Alabama -31
Ole Miss will probably get steamrolled.
On Saturday John L. Smith and his Razorbacks head to College Station for their next stop in a season of ass-whoopings. I wonder if they don't feel like this already:
The SEC's most intriguing matchup just might be the Tennessee Volunteers going up against a confident, improving team of Georgia Bulldogs. We'll take a look at 'Bama just cause.
Arkansas @ Texas A&M -14
Whoa-ho-ho, bring your Serta pillows, because this is going to be one hell of a featherweight battle. In this corner, the Arkansas Razorbacks, proud owners of a 1-3 record and a third down conversion percentage of 28 percent! And in the other red corner, with a record of 2-1 with wins against nobody, the Texas A&M Aggies!
"Just fucking ring the bell, you pansy"—Joseph "Blue" Pulaski
Actually, A&M, while playing against inferior opponents, is actually putting together a competent-looking stat line. D-lineman Damontre Moore, with six sacks and eight tackles for loss is wreaking havoc in opposing backfields and is just the kind of player that could force fumbles and injuries of Arkansas backs who are getting exactly no protection from the Hogs offensive line. If the defense can keep the Hogs quiet in the first half its very balanced offense—passing and rushing plays are split nearly 50/50 and both strategies have been effective in the red zone, where the Aggies score at a 91 percent pace—will march on past Arkansas to its first SEC victory.
Tennessee @ Georgia -13
Tennessee heads down Between the Hedges to take on an absolute wrecking ball of a Georgia rushing attack (and pretty good passing attack, too.) The Dawgs' running backs are gaining about six yards per rush and the receivers are pulling in Aaron Murray bombs, averaging 16.2 yards per catch. The real star, though, is linebacker Jarvis Jones, who has tackled or sacked opposing offenses for a total loss of 88 yards. On his own. Add in interception yardage, and Jones has earned the Dawgs about 100 total yards. Tennessee isn't getting much help from its 59th-ranked rushing game, which could put an unreasonable amount of pressure on QB Tyler Bray, who is having a fantastic season but struggled against Florida, the best defense the Vols saw before this weekend's matchup. This is also the 3-1 Vols' first road game, which could spell trouble.
Mississippi @ Alabama -31
Ole Miss will probably get steamrolled.
Monday, September 24, 2012
Midwest Monday: Look who's back in town again
By Kyle Magin
Gameday is coming back to East Lansing Saturday as Ohio State and Michigan State scrap in Spartan Stadium. Let's celebrate:
Man I still think them cats'll play.
Here's the thing, there are some really compelling matchups this week. It's sneaky good. You have the aforementioned B1G opener, The 'Nati and Va. Tech getting together in the nation's capital, the Vols heading in between the hedges and the Horns headed up to Stillwater. Let's get to the games amongst THEY WHO EAT MEAT AND POTATOES.
Ohio State @ Michigan State -3
Both teams come into this game with foul-smelling passing games. The difference is OSU still finds a way to score points—nearly 38 of them per game, as opposed to the Spartans measly 21. OSU's done it against a decidedly easier slate, but still, 4-0 speaks for itself. Last we saw the struggling Spartans, QB Andrew Maxwell's passing game was getting slapped upside the head by Eastern Michigan. They're completing just 57 percent of passes and can't get opposing defenses off Le'Veon Bell's back. They'll have to learn to capitalize through the air in a hurry because the Bucks are vulnerable there—opponents have gained 42 passing first downs against this defense and make up a majority of their offense vs. OSU through the air. IF MSU can continue to play its smothering brand of defense and DE William Gholston is asked to contain and then attack OSU QB Braxton Miller, this could make last year's 10-7 MSU win in the Shoe look like a shootout.
Wisconsin @ Nebraska -13
Just a few weeks ago this line would have seemed outrageous. But now, Wisconsin (3-1) looks lost offensively and are truly missing two graduated first time all-B1G defensive backs on the other side of the ball. The Badger offensive line is getting no push for RB Montee Ball and Co., averaging just 3.1 yards per carry and converting less than a third of third down attempts. The passing game is mired in mediocrity behind new QB Danny O'Brien, and the defense is giving up 245 passing yards per game. Throw enough against the Badgers and something will open up downfield. Nebraska, thankfully for the folks in Madison, still aren't throwing a ton—the Huskers are 66th in the nation in passing yardage, though QB Taylor Martinez has been completing a fairly efficient 70.7 percent of his throws. He's backed up by an incredibly solid run game led by Ameer Abdullah, averaging more than 6 yards per carry. If he can get to the second level on Wisconsin's defense often enough, look for things to open up deep for Martinez.
Minnesota @ Iowa -7
Iowa is a piddly-shit program who may or may not have lost this blogger money in a BLOWOUT LOSS to CENTRAL MICHIGAN last Saturday at Kinnick Stadium. I won't get into much more than a few stats on the 2-2 Hawkeyes—they converted only 30 percent of third downs vs. a MAC defense last week and got beaten 36-23 minutes in time of possession. Playing keep away is an effective strategy vs. these "Forrest's IQ is below this line, Mrs. Gump" Iowa schoolyard defenders. A questionable D-line just isn't getting a push and the defensive backs are continuing last year's tradition of sucking ass. Minnesota, on the other hand, has beaten four solid if not spectacular opponents behind a surprisingly strong D-line, led by D.L. Wilhite and his astounding 4.5 sacks and 5.5 tackles for loss on the young season. Sophomore QB Max Shortell has been an effective shepherd for a middling offense, but if they keep getting stellar defensive help, I like this line as much as any you'll see all week.
Gameday is coming back to East Lansing Saturday as Ohio State and Michigan State scrap in Spartan Stadium. Let's celebrate:
Here's the thing, there are some really compelling matchups this week. It's sneaky good. You have the aforementioned B1G opener, The 'Nati and Va. Tech getting together in the nation's capital, the Vols heading in between the hedges and the Horns headed up to Stillwater. Let's get to the games amongst THEY WHO EAT MEAT AND POTATOES.
Ohio State @ Michigan State -3
Both teams come into this game with foul-smelling passing games. The difference is OSU still finds a way to score points—nearly 38 of them per game, as opposed to the Spartans measly 21. OSU's done it against a decidedly easier slate, but still, 4-0 speaks for itself. Last we saw the struggling Spartans, QB Andrew Maxwell's passing game was getting slapped upside the head by Eastern Michigan. They're completing just 57 percent of passes and can't get opposing defenses off Le'Veon Bell's back. They'll have to learn to capitalize through the air in a hurry because the Bucks are vulnerable there—opponents have gained 42 passing first downs against this defense and make up a majority of their offense vs. OSU through the air. IF MSU can continue to play its smothering brand of defense and DE William Gholston is asked to contain and then attack OSU QB Braxton Miller, this could make last year's 10-7 MSU win in the Shoe look like a shootout.
Wisconsin @ Nebraska -13
Just a few weeks ago this line would have seemed outrageous. But now, Wisconsin (3-1) looks lost offensively and are truly missing two graduated first time all-B1G defensive backs on the other side of the ball. The Badger offensive line is getting no push for RB Montee Ball and Co., averaging just 3.1 yards per carry and converting less than a third of third down attempts. The passing game is mired in mediocrity behind new QB Danny O'Brien, and the defense is giving up 245 passing yards per game. Throw enough against the Badgers and something will open up downfield. Nebraska, thankfully for the folks in Madison, still aren't throwing a ton—the Huskers are 66th in the nation in passing yardage, though QB Taylor Martinez has been completing a fairly efficient 70.7 percent of his throws. He's backed up by an incredibly solid run game led by Ameer Abdullah, averaging more than 6 yards per carry. If he can get to the second level on Wisconsin's defense often enough, look for things to open up deep for Martinez.
Minnesota @ Iowa -7
Iowa is a piddly-shit program who may or may not have lost this blogger money in a BLOWOUT LOSS to CENTRAL MICHIGAN last Saturday at Kinnick Stadium. I won't get into much more than a few stats on the 2-2 Hawkeyes—they converted only 30 percent of third downs vs. a MAC defense last week and got beaten 36-23 minutes in time of possession. Playing keep away is an effective strategy vs. these "Forrest's IQ is below this line, Mrs. Gump" Iowa schoolyard defenders. A questionable D-line just isn't getting a push and the defensive backs are continuing last year's tradition of sucking ass. Minnesota, on the other hand, has beaten four solid if not spectacular opponents behind a surprisingly strong D-line, led by D.L. Wilhite and his astounding 4.5 sacks and 5.5 tackles for loss on the young season. Sophomore QB Max Shortell has been an effective shepherd for a middling offense, but if they keep getting stellar defensive help, I like this line as much as any you'll see all week.
Friday, September 21, 2012
Week 4: The Picks are in!
2/3rds of TNG pickers are running in a Tough Mudder tomorrow, so this is going to be a light post. Here ya go.
Marcus says...
Season Record: 6-6
Last week: 3-1
Kansas +9 @ Northern Illinois
Kansas to cover.
Louisiana Tech @ Illinois -2.5
Illini to cover.
UTEP @ Wisconsin -18
Wisconsin to cover.
Michigan +5.5 @ Notre Dame
Michigan to cover.
Big Tex says...
Season Record: 4-4
Last Week: Idle
Arizona @ Oregon -21.5; Wildcats are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings. Also, the underdog is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
Kansas State @ Oklahoma -14; Oklahoma is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games. Road team is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings. Wildcats are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Oklahoma.
Louisville @ FIU -13.5;
Marcus says...
Season Record: 6-6
Last week: 3-1
Kansas +9 @ Northern Illinois
Kansas to cover.
Louisiana Tech @ Illinois -2.5
Illini to cover.
UTEP @ Wisconsin -18
Wisconsin to cover.
Michigan +5.5 @ Notre Dame
Michigan to cover.
Big Tex says...
Season Record: 4-4
Last Week: Idle
Kyle says...
Season Record: 6-6
Last Week: 2-2
Vanderbilt @ Georgia -16
Georgia to cover.
LSU -20.5 @ Auburn
LSU to cover.
Michigan @ Notre Dame -5.5
Notre Dame to cover.
Arizona @ Oregon -21.5
Oregon to cover.
Wednesday, September 19, 2012
Week 4: Bear Down and Duck
By Kyle Magin
We venture out west, where up is down, UCLA is relevant again, and USC caught an ass-whooping of epic proportions from the Cardinal. This weekend, Arizona heads into Autzen in what could actually be a pretty entertaining matchup. Everything is better with De'Anthony Thomas.
Side note: F*ck Wisconsin.
Arizona @ Oregon -23
I've heard more than a few people say this line is way to large. It's understandable, as Arizona is 3-0, looks like a contender in the Pac 12 south and is racking up passing yards at a faster clip than almost anyone in the nation. QB Matt Scott appears to be just right for RichRod's offense, and aside from his concerningly-high sack total, he's been effective in the red zone and an efficient passer. The only problem for Arizona is that Oregon's offense is going to be on the other side of the field against the Bearcat defense. Oregon doesn't miss in the red zone, scoring 85 percent of the time its entered the 20 yard line—and every single one of those is a touchdown. Marcus Mariota completes 75 percent of his passes down there, and the Bearcats D has been soft in the red zone this season. 'Zona will have to keep a close eye on Thomas down here, a dangerous prospect given Mariota's knack at finding his secondary targets, notably RB Kenjon Barner. Whatever the over settles in at, take it.
BYU @ Boise State -7
BYU doesn't get a breather after last weekend's bizarre, last-second loss to Utah in the Holy War. You'd better believe after two wins Boise will be buzzing tomorrow night for the nationally televised showdown with a squad that wants what they have: To be the baddest off-brand squad west of the Mississippi. BYU is having difficulties finding rushing yards—they gained just 2.5 yards per carry last week and none of their backs were able to get loose for more than 54 yards despite a combined 42 carries. If they can't take more heat off the passing game—who'll face one of Boise's tougher defensive units in the Bronco DBs—the Cougs are in trouble. Boise's D has held opponents to just one passing touchdown this season, and that's when the big nasties like DL Tyler Horn go in for the kill on opposing quarterbacks. Boise's offense is having some growing pains under Joe Southwick, but the defense has been lights out.
Cal @ USC -16
The exact moment I decide to stop picking SC a game pops up like this. Cal at 1-2 can't seem to get out of its own way, posting wildly inconsistent offensive numbers even in games like last week's close loss to OSU, when the special teams played a great game. The Bears' problem isn't their down-to-down defense or even their red zone defense, it's the fact that they give up big plays like the nanny state football team they are, allowing three scoring plays of 25-plus yards last week alone. Wherever you are on the field against Cal, you're in scoring range. The problem, I suspect, lies mainly with the Bears inability to pressure opposing quarterbacks. Matt Barkley is very sackable, but if you don't pressure him, he finds his receivers deep downfield—they average 12.3 yards per catch. USC is having a hard time getting its running game going (they 95th in the nation in rush yardage) but if Silas Redd can bust a big play or two it'll open up things for Barkley and his talented receivers—watch out.
Oregon State @ UCLA -7.5
For all the hype, what do we actual know about Oregon State after its only win of the season vs. Wisconsin? This is still a team with a young o-line and anemic offense. The defense is strong, but Wisconsin had major problems in that opener in Corvallis. In Westwood there are two guys in the backfield who can make you pay dearly with their legs—QB Brett Hundley and RB Jonathan Franklin, who is averaging an impressive 9 yards per touch. The Bruins rushing game is so good that they're nearly guarunteed to win the time of possession battle—a scary prospect for an OSU team not meant to come from behind.
We venture out west, where up is down, UCLA is relevant again, and USC caught an ass-whooping of epic proportions from the Cardinal. This weekend, Arizona heads into Autzen in what could actually be a pretty entertaining matchup. Everything is better with De'Anthony Thomas.
Arizona @ Oregon -23
I've heard more than a few people say this line is way to large. It's understandable, as Arizona is 3-0, looks like a contender in the Pac 12 south and is racking up passing yards at a faster clip than almost anyone in the nation. QB Matt Scott appears to be just right for RichRod's offense, and aside from his concerningly-high sack total, he's been effective in the red zone and an efficient passer. The only problem for Arizona is that Oregon's offense is going to be on the other side of the field against the Bearcat defense. Oregon doesn't miss in the red zone, scoring 85 percent of the time its entered the 20 yard line—and every single one of those is a touchdown. Marcus Mariota completes 75 percent of his passes down there, and the Bearcats D has been soft in the red zone this season. 'Zona will have to keep a close eye on Thomas down here, a dangerous prospect given Mariota's knack at finding his secondary targets, notably RB Kenjon Barner. Whatever the over settles in at, take it.
BYU @ Boise State -7
BYU doesn't get a breather after last weekend's bizarre, last-second loss to Utah in the Holy War. You'd better believe after two wins Boise will be buzzing tomorrow night for the nationally televised showdown with a squad that wants what they have: To be the baddest off-brand squad west of the Mississippi. BYU is having difficulties finding rushing yards—they gained just 2.5 yards per carry last week and none of their backs were able to get loose for more than 54 yards despite a combined 42 carries. If they can't take more heat off the passing game—who'll face one of Boise's tougher defensive units in the Bronco DBs—the Cougs are in trouble. Boise's D has held opponents to just one passing touchdown this season, and that's when the big nasties like DL Tyler Horn go in for the kill on opposing quarterbacks. Boise's offense is having some growing pains under Joe Southwick, but the defense has been lights out.
Cal @ USC -16
The exact moment I decide to stop picking SC a game pops up like this. Cal at 1-2 can't seem to get out of its own way, posting wildly inconsistent offensive numbers even in games like last week's close loss to OSU, when the special teams played a great game. The Bears' problem isn't their down-to-down defense or even their red zone defense, it's the fact that they give up big plays like the nanny state football team they are, allowing three scoring plays of 25-plus yards last week alone. Wherever you are on the field against Cal, you're in scoring range. The problem, I suspect, lies mainly with the Bears inability to pressure opposing quarterbacks. Matt Barkley is very sackable, but if you don't pressure him, he finds his receivers deep downfield—they average 12.3 yards per catch. USC is having a hard time getting its running game going (they 95th in the nation in rush yardage) but if Silas Redd can bust a big play or two it'll open up things for Barkley and his talented receivers—watch out.
Oregon State @ UCLA -7.5
For all the hype, what do we actual know about Oregon State after its only win of the season vs. Wisconsin? This is still a team with a young o-line and anemic offense. The defense is strong, but Wisconsin had major problems in that opener in Corvallis. In Westwood there are two guys in the backfield who can make you pay dearly with their legs—QB Brett Hundley and RB Jonathan Franklin, who is averaging an impressive 9 yards per touch. The Bruins rushing game is so good that they're nearly guarunteed to win the time of possession battle—a scary prospect for an OSU team not meant to come from behind.
Tuesday, September 18, 2012
Week 4: Sunshine State of Mind
By Kyle Magin
Between the 'Noles and Gators, FLA is comin' back in a big way in college football. Not that any of us missed them, but still, something does seem right when the state has a few highly competitive teams in action. And it's beautiful there, to wit:
(38 seconds in). Inappropriate. Inappropriate.
The South and SEC in particular looks like the class of college football again this year unless the folks in Eugene, Norman or hell, I'll say it, South Bend can get their acts together. Let's go clog our arteries on a little southern fried.
Clemson @ Florida State -14
FSU, for lack of a better term, is shitting on its opponents and moving on like a grazing buffalo. They've given up 3 points all season. They're averaging more than 50. Granted, they've played some slop competition, but it takes a lot for a football team to dominate in such a manner every week. Clemson has looked slightly less dominating in rushing to its 3-0 record, but only slightly. QB Tajh Boyd is averaging almost 300 passing yards per game but has had *some* problems under pressure. The key for Clemson will be to establish its rushing game to open things up for Boyd agains the Noles, but Tallahassee will be unforgiving Saturday.
LSU -21 @ Auburn
This game is eminently winnable for LSU. Tigers QB Zach Mettenberger is a revelation—averaging 12.6-plus yards per completion and completing more than 72 percent of his throws. His game complements the LSU rushing attack well, keeping teams from totally packing the box against RB Kenny Hilliard and his six rushing touchdowns. Auburn is comparatively a mess, and QB Kiehl Frazier is getting no support from his rush game. The defense in atrocious—allowing more third down conversions, yards per rush, time of possession and giving up red zone TDs 54 percent of the time.
Florida Atlantic @ Alabama -49.5
One sentence because I'm lazy and 'Bama is that good: 100 percent of the time the Tide gets inside the 20 yard line, they score; opponents have done that once this season.
Kentucky @ Florida -24
Florida's defense looks so good, and the offense has been surprisingly effective, completing 70-plus percent of its passes and scoring at an 89 percent clip in the red zone on its way to a 3-0 record. The Jeff Driskell-Jacoby Brissett snap sharing plan at QB is complementing the rush game well, which is all they need it to do. Kentucky, on the other hand, is a one-trick pony. If things don't work through the air, the 1-2 Wildcats don't work. Receiver La'Rod King needs to continue to rack up YAC like it's going out to style.
Monday, September 17, 2012
Week 4: Midwest Monday or "Let's do it again"
By Kyle Magin
Remember the finish last year when Notre Dame and Michigan got together?
This bettor does. I was sitting in the casino parking lot just waiting for ND to cover so I could collect on the back end of a two-team parlay. Fuck you, Roy Roundtree. Onto this week.
Kansas State @ Oklahoma -14
K-State QB Collin Klein has gotten great protection, thrown accurately and most importantly run an effective option in coach Bill Snyder's offense. All three of those things must continue against Oklahoma Saturday in Norman for K-State to become relevant once again on the national stage. Klein isn't passing for much—with a rushing attack averaging more than 250 yards per game he hasn't been asked to—but when he does throw completions he's averaging more than 14 yards. Oklahoma QB Landry Jones hasn't been quite as effective but the OU defense under Mike Stoops sure has—surrendering just 8 first downs rushing in two games and zero rushing touchdowns. Worse yet, if things don't go well for Sooner opponents on first and second down, their chances of converting a third down drop below 20 percent. K-State's line will need to keep OU DT Jama McFarland out of the backfield for the Cats to have a shot.
Michigan @ Notre Dame -5.5
Can the luck of the Irish hold out? After three weeks of dominating defense, I'm guessing they can. While Notre Dame hasn't seen an offense with Michigan's dynamism yet, they have seen comparable or slightly better offensive lines, against which they've managed 11 sacks, 20 tackles for loss and given up an average of just 10 points per game. The key to beating Denard Robinson has been to force him to stay in the pocket and throw—he's a cumulative 54 percent on completions but gets progressively worse on second and third down, where all four of his interceptions have come this season. If Notre Dame's Manti Te'o and co can continue to shut down the run, the odds work in their favor in Michigan must go to the air for their survival. QB Everett Golson isn't much better than Robinson accuracy-wise, but he's got a much better rushing game to back him up.
Missouri @ South Carolina -10
South Carolina is doing business on defense, giving up a paltry 9.7 yards per game and holding opposing offenses to 1.6 rushing yards and a 25 percent conversion percentage on third down. The later you get into a game against the Gamecocks, the less likely you are to convert when down and distance isn't in your favor. Sophomore QB Dylan Thompson's emergence as starter after Connor Shaw's injury should be of grave concern, though—Thompson's accuracy is spotty at best and in limited action he's been sacked six times, in part due to an underachieving offensive line, and in part due to inexperience and an inability to get rid of the ball quickly. Don't think that hasn't been noticed by MU sackmaster DE Brad Madison, who has three already this season on a team that's garnered nine. If only Mizzou QB James Franklin could improve on his anemic passing numbers, Mizzou could have a shot at covering.
UConn -1.5 @ Western Michigan
The Bronco is a one-trick pony this season—pass, pass and pass some more. UConn has been very effective at stopping the pass, and the run for that matter, holding opposing offenses to a little more than 10 points per game and 123 yards through the air. Where there's an opening to WMU is in QB Alex Carder's ability to complete passes—he's been doing it at a modest 62 percent rate, but that's on average 20 percent higher than any of UConn's opponents to date. When the Huskies give up a completion, the opposition averages 10 yards. Carder will have to if his running game continues to offer no support and UConn's rush defense continues holding opposing offenses to 1.2 yards per carry. UConn's offense is actually worse than the Broncos—they're at or below 100th in the nation in both passing and rushing yards—so don't expect a shootout.
Remember the finish last year when Notre Dame and Michigan got together?
This bettor does. I was sitting in the casino parking lot just waiting for ND to cover so I could collect on the back end of a two-team parlay. Fuck you, Roy Roundtree. Onto this week.
Kansas State @ Oklahoma -14
K-State QB Collin Klein has gotten great protection, thrown accurately and most importantly run an effective option in coach Bill Snyder's offense. All three of those things must continue against Oklahoma Saturday in Norman for K-State to become relevant once again on the national stage. Klein isn't passing for much—with a rushing attack averaging more than 250 yards per game he hasn't been asked to—but when he does throw completions he's averaging more than 14 yards. Oklahoma QB Landry Jones hasn't been quite as effective but the OU defense under Mike Stoops sure has—surrendering just 8 first downs rushing in two games and zero rushing touchdowns. Worse yet, if things don't go well for Sooner opponents on first and second down, their chances of converting a third down drop below 20 percent. K-State's line will need to keep OU DT Jama McFarland out of the backfield for the Cats to have a shot.
Michigan @ Notre Dame -5.5
Can the luck of the Irish hold out? After three weeks of dominating defense, I'm guessing they can. While Notre Dame hasn't seen an offense with Michigan's dynamism yet, they have seen comparable or slightly better offensive lines, against which they've managed 11 sacks, 20 tackles for loss and given up an average of just 10 points per game. The key to beating Denard Robinson has been to force him to stay in the pocket and throw—he's a cumulative 54 percent on completions but gets progressively worse on second and third down, where all four of his interceptions have come this season. If Notre Dame's Manti Te'o and co can continue to shut down the run, the odds work in their favor in Michigan must go to the air for their survival. QB Everett Golson isn't much better than Robinson accuracy-wise, but he's got a much better rushing game to back him up.
Missouri @ South Carolina -10
South Carolina is doing business on defense, giving up a paltry 9.7 yards per game and holding opposing offenses to 1.6 rushing yards and a 25 percent conversion percentage on third down. The later you get into a game against the Gamecocks, the less likely you are to convert when down and distance isn't in your favor. Sophomore QB Dylan Thompson's emergence as starter after Connor Shaw's injury should be of grave concern, though—Thompson's accuracy is spotty at best and in limited action he's been sacked six times, in part due to an underachieving offensive line, and in part due to inexperience and an inability to get rid of the ball quickly. Don't think that hasn't been noticed by MU sackmaster DE Brad Madison, who has three already this season on a team that's garnered nine. If only Mizzou QB James Franklin could improve on his anemic passing numbers, Mizzou could have a shot at covering.
UConn -1.5 @ Western Michigan
The Bronco is a one-trick pony this season—pass, pass and pass some more. UConn has been very effective at stopping the pass, and the run for that matter, holding opposing offenses to a little more than 10 points per game and 123 yards through the air. Where there's an opening to WMU is in QB Alex Carder's ability to complete passes—he's been doing it at a modest 62 percent rate, but that's on average 20 percent higher than any of UConn's opponents to date. When the Huskies give up a completion, the opposition averages 10 yards. Carder will have to if his running game continues to offer no support and UConn's rush defense continues holding opposing offenses to 1.2 yards per carry. UConn's offense is actually worse than the Broncos—they're at or below 100th in the nation in both passing and rushing yards—so don't expect a shootout.
Sunday, September 16, 2012
NFL bonus
We had a good day yesterday, going 5-3. Big Tex checks in this morning with a few NFL picks.
Texans -7.5 @ Jacksonville. Go with the Texans
Oakland -2 @ Miami. Pick the Raiders
Friday, September 14, 2012
Week 3: And the picks keeping coming in...
Marcus says...
Season Record: 3-5
Last Week: 2-2
Notre Dame +6 @ Michigan State
I was live from South Bend last week and saw ND pull a rabbit out of the hat. The running game was non-existent. Golson played well, but watched from the sidelines with a 'hand injury' as Rees led the game winning drive. Sparty got loose last week in Mt Pleasant. Maxwell threw for 2 TDs and no INTs. The Battle for the Megaphone is always close and I see this year being much of the same. I'm taking ND and the points but expect Sparty to win by a FG.
Western Michigan @ Minnesota -3
This will be the live tweet this week as I'll be live from TCF Bank Stadium. Bronco QB Alex Carder seemed to find targets in TE Blake Hammond and WR Jaime Wilson as WMU rolled up Eastern Illinois. Senior QB MarQueis Gray led Minnesota to a 2-0 with a 44-7 win against New Hampshire. Vegas seems to like Coach Cubit and the Broncos but I see a Minnesota victory. I'm taking Minnesota to cover but am looking for some fight out of WMU.
Massachusetts +45.5 @ Michigan
Air Force came into the big house and almost ruined the Wolverines' season. UM escaped with a victory and thankfully for them will not face an attack like Air Force the rest of the year. UMass got beat up by IU last week and looks like they could have a rough year in the MAC. DE Brennan Beyer will be out for Michigan but they won't need him against the hapless Minutemen. I think the maize and blue will roll but 45.5 is a huge number. Take UMass and the points.
Texas -10 @ Ole Miss
Let's venture out of the midwest for a bit and take a trip down south. The 'Horns laid the wood against New Mexico last week, pitching a shut out. QB David Ash did it through the air with 2 TD passes and even opened the game with a 49 yard TD run. Get used to the bench Case McCoy. The Rebs beat UTEP last week and have a stud in sophomore QB Bo Wallace. I see the Texas D frustrating Wallace and winning by two TDs. Take Texas to cover.
Season Record: 3-5
Last Week: 2-2
Notre Dame +6 @ Michigan State
I was live from South Bend last week and saw ND pull a rabbit out of the hat. The running game was non-existent. Golson played well, but watched from the sidelines with a 'hand injury' as Rees led the game winning drive. Sparty got loose last week in Mt Pleasant. Maxwell threw for 2 TDs and no INTs. The Battle for the Megaphone is always close and I see this year being much of the same. I'm taking ND and the points but expect Sparty to win by a FG.
Western Michigan @ Minnesota -3
This will be the live tweet this week as I'll be live from TCF Bank Stadium. Bronco QB Alex Carder seemed to find targets in TE Blake Hammond and WR Jaime Wilson as WMU rolled up Eastern Illinois. Senior QB MarQueis Gray led Minnesota to a 2-0 with a 44-7 win against New Hampshire. Vegas seems to like Coach Cubit and the Broncos but I see a Minnesota victory. I'm taking Minnesota to cover but am looking for some fight out of WMU.
Massachusetts +45.5 @ Michigan
Air Force came into the big house and almost ruined the Wolverines' season. UM escaped with a victory and thankfully for them will not face an attack like Air Force the rest of the year. UMass got beat up by IU last week and looks like they could have a rough year in the MAC. DE Brennan Beyer will be out for Michigan but they won't need him against the hapless Minutemen. I think the maize and blue will roll but 45.5 is a huge number. Take UMass and the points.
Texas -10 @ Ole Miss
Let's venture out of the midwest for a bit and take a trip down south. The 'Horns laid the wood against New Mexico last week, pitching a shut out. QB David Ash did it through the air with 2 TD passes and even opened the game with a 49 yard TD run. Get used to the bench Case McCoy. The Rebs beat UTEP last week and have a stud in sophomore QB Bo Wallace. I see the Texas D frustrating Wallace and winning by two TDs. Take Texas to cover.
Week 3: The Picks Are In! The Picks Are In!
In honor of our 8-4 record last weekend:
And they stay there.
Kyle says...
Season record: 4-4
Last week: 3-1
Notre Dame @ Michigan State -6
The Spartans haven't surrendered one offensive touchdown yet this season. Last week they held Central Michigan to a 38 percent third down conversion percentage, just 72 rushing yards and 4.6 yards per pass in a effort that was even more dominant than their matchup against Boise State. Notre Dame's defense is impressive—forcing two turnovers out of Purdue last week and holding the Boilermaker offense to less than 300 total yards. Michigan State, though, has Le'Veon Bell, who is averaging more than 6 yards every time he touches the ball. Notre Dame has not yet been tested by a runner, or an offensive line, of Bell and Michigan State's caliber. The Spartans dig in for revenge and cover at home.
USC -8 @ Stanford
Chalk baby. SC gets back in-state after a puzzling game last week in New Jersey vs. Syracuse and lines up a strong but untested Stanford team in its sights. Stanford's passing attack, headed by QB Josh Nunes, has struggled at times in the first two games. He's been sacked and hurried a few times and is completing about 57 percent of his passes—passable numbers against the likes of San Jose State and Duke, but it won't fly against the Trojans, who are led by QB Matt Barkley and two terrific receivers—Marqise Lee and Robert Woods, both well over the 200 yard mark on the two-game long season. If SC can establish its running game looks against this inexperienced Cardinal will open up for Barkley and it's goodnight sweetheart.
BYU -3.5 @ Utah UNDER 46.5
The Holy War pits two different styles against one another—the pass happy Cougars are averaging 305 passing yards per game and Utah has been pretty effective defensively behind leading man DT Star Lotulelei. Shutting down BYU's passing game and forcing them to the rush—they're averaging just under 4 yards per carry as a team—will be key for the Utes. I'd look for BYU to start hot as in the last two games behind QB Riley Nelson (the Cougs average 22.5 points in the first half) then go into a more conservative mode. Utah's offense is a mess behind newly-minted quarterback Jon Hays had accuracy problems when he stepped in as an emergency last week. Take the under.
Florida +3 @ Tennessee
This pick might perplex some as Tennessee appears to be as loaded offensively as it's been since the Tee Martin days, but Florida is an absolute monster on defense. In the second half of last week's tight win over Texas A&M, Florida allowed the Aggies to cross the 50 a grand total of once and held them to less than 50 cumulative yards. A&M converted less than a quarter of its third downs against Florida. The Gators aren't any great shakes on offense, though, and QB Jeff Driskell is getting sacked at a rate of nearly 3 times per game. But, Tennessee has had trouble rushing the passer this season, and if Driskell can remain on his feet he'll set up the running game and Tennessee can kiss their day goodbye. Florida to cover.
Kyle says...
Season record: 4-4
Last week: 3-1
Notre Dame @ Michigan State -6
The Spartans haven't surrendered one offensive touchdown yet this season. Last week they held Central Michigan to a 38 percent third down conversion percentage, just 72 rushing yards and 4.6 yards per pass in a effort that was even more dominant than their matchup against Boise State. Notre Dame's defense is impressive—forcing two turnovers out of Purdue last week and holding the Boilermaker offense to less than 300 total yards. Michigan State, though, has Le'Veon Bell, who is averaging more than 6 yards every time he touches the ball. Notre Dame has not yet been tested by a runner, or an offensive line, of Bell and Michigan State's caliber. The Spartans dig in for revenge and cover at home.
USC -8 @ Stanford
Chalk baby. SC gets back in-state after a puzzling game last week in New Jersey vs. Syracuse and lines up a strong but untested Stanford team in its sights. Stanford's passing attack, headed by QB Josh Nunes, has struggled at times in the first two games. He's been sacked and hurried a few times and is completing about 57 percent of his passes—passable numbers against the likes of San Jose State and Duke, but it won't fly against the Trojans, who are led by QB Matt Barkley and two terrific receivers—Marqise Lee and Robert Woods, both well over the 200 yard mark on the two-game long season. If SC can establish its running game looks against this inexperienced Cardinal will open up for Barkley and it's goodnight sweetheart.
BYU -3.5 @ Utah UNDER 46.5
The Holy War pits two different styles against one another—the pass happy Cougars are averaging 305 passing yards per game and Utah has been pretty effective defensively behind leading man DT Star Lotulelei. Shutting down BYU's passing game and forcing them to the rush—they're averaging just under 4 yards per carry as a team—will be key for the Utes. I'd look for BYU to start hot as in the last two games behind QB Riley Nelson (the Cougs average 22.5 points in the first half) then go into a more conservative mode. Utah's offense is a mess behind newly-minted quarterback Jon Hays had accuracy problems when he stepped in as an emergency last week. Take the under.
Florida +3 @ Tennessee
This pick might perplex some as Tennessee appears to be as loaded offensively as it's been since the Tee Martin days, but Florida is an absolute monster on defense. In the second half of last week's tight win over Texas A&M, Florida allowed the Aggies to cross the 50 a grand total of once and held them to less than 50 cumulative yards. A&M converted less than a quarter of its third downs against Florida. The Gators aren't any great shakes on offense, though, and QB Jeff Driskell is getting sacked at a rate of nearly 3 times per game. But, Tennessee has had trouble rushing the passer this season, and if Driskell can remain on his feet he'll set up the running game and Tennessee can kiss their day goodbye. Florida to cover.
Thursday, September 13, 2012
Week 3: Thirsty Thursdays
By Kyle Magin
Tonight's the night week 3 kicks off and we're pumped here at TNG for showdowns in the B1G, SEC, ACC and Pac 12. I feel this much excited:
Wake Forest @ Florida State -28
This has been one of the biggest line swings of the week, with FSU going from a 24-point favorite Sunday to a 28-point favorite Wednesday night. Injuries up front on the offensive line and a rotten running game—even against a lightweight like Liberty in week 1 the Deacons managed just 98 rushing yards—are going to hurt Wake Forest against a potential juggernaut in FSU. QB Tanner Price is averaging more than 12 yards per completion, but he can't get solid protection, leading to a pair of sacks and picks on the young season. Expect his problems with hurries to worsen this weekend, as FSU has recorded seven sacks on the young season, albeit against far inferior competition. FSU's two games against the hapless Murray State and clinically dead totally hapless Savannah State tell very little about the team. We do know they have a top-flight QB in EJ Manuel, who has been on a hot streak for the last four games leading back to last season; we do know they have one of the best D-lines in the nation; we also know they've struggled against Wake Forest, losing four of their last six to the Deacons. This game will be very telling, and I'm not sure yet if I'd get near 28 points.
TCU -21 @ Kansas
TCU enters its first game in the Big 12 as a bit of an unknown—we learned very little in a 56-0 blowout against Grambling State in week 2. QB Casey Pachall is tailor-built for the Big 12's pass-happy league and has an impressive group of WRs and an OL that gave up only a sack per game last season and returns this year as a more experienced unit, led by guard Blaize Foltz. The defense won't knock your socks off, but it gets progressively stronger as you get toward the linebackers and backfield and won't give away many plays—a hallmark of Gary Patterson-coached squads. Kansas, surprise surprise, cannot pass the ball this season or protect QB Dayne Crist, who has been sacked twice and intercepted thrice in the Jayhawks 1-1 start. The o-line's lost 75 starts since last year and Crist's only passing for 156 yards per game this season. KU is 12-16 ATS as a home dog in the past 10 years.
Texas A&M -12 @ SMU
We're going to find out a lot about these Ponies this week. They've suffered a blowout loss to Baylor before turning around and spanking Stephen F. Austin. The offensive line is a joke—allowing three sacks and failing to launch a good group of running backs but somehow sustaining a pretty strong passing game. A&M has a solid defense—especially the linebackers—and forced five punts and two field goals in last week's loss against Florida, a less functional but more talented offense than they'll see this week. Keep an eye on the Aggies' junior defensive end Damontre Moore, who has three tackles for loss for 21 combined yards—he can wreak havoc against an O-line like SMU's. I have a feeling, though, that this game will come down to A&M's offense—will Johnny Manziel get the protection he needs to move A&M down the field? He was sacked three times last week and needs more time to pick a team like this apart.
Tonight's the night week 3 kicks off and we're pumped here at TNG for showdowns in the B1G, SEC, ACC and Pac 12. I feel this much excited:
This has been one of the biggest line swings of the week, with FSU going from a 24-point favorite Sunday to a 28-point favorite Wednesday night. Injuries up front on the offensive line and a rotten running game—even against a lightweight like Liberty in week 1 the Deacons managed just 98 rushing yards—are going to hurt Wake Forest against a potential juggernaut in FSU. QB Tanner Price is averaging more than 12 yards per completion, but he can't get solid protection, leading to a pair of sacks and picks on the young season. Expect his problems with hurries to worsen this weekend, as FSU has recorded seven sacks on the young season, albeit against far inferior competition. FSU's two games against the hapless Murray State and clinically dead totally hapless Savannah State tell very little about the team. We do know they have a top-flight QB in EJ Manuel, who has been on a hot streak for the last four games leading back to last season; we do know they have one of the best D-lines in the nation; we also know they've struggled against Wake Forest, losing four of their last six to the Deacons. This game will be very telling, and I'm not sure yet if I'd get near 28 points.
TCU -21 @ Kansas
TCU enters its first game in the Big 12 as a bit of an unknown—we learned very little in a 56-0 blowout against Grambling State in week 2. QB Casey Pachall is tailor-built for the Big 12's pass-happy league and has an impressive group of WRs and an OL that gave up only a sack per game last season and returns this year as a more experienced unit, led by guard Blaize Foltz. The defense won't knock your socks off, but it gets progressively stronger as you get toward the linebackers and backfield and won't give away many plays—a hallmark of Gary Patterson-coached squads. Kansas, surprise surprise, cannot pass the ball this season or protect QB Dayne Crist, who has been sacked twice and intercepted thrice in the Jayhawks 1-1 start. The o-line's lost 75 starts since last year and Crist's only passing for 156 yards per game this season. KU is 12-16 ATS as a home dog in the past 10 years.
Texas A&M -12 @ SMU
We're going to find out a lot about these Ponies this week. They've suffered a blowout loss to Baylor before turning around and spanking Stephen F. Austin. The offensive line is a joke—allowing three sacks and failing to launch a good group of running backs but somehow sustaining a pretty strong passing game. A&M has a solid defense—especially the linebackers—and forced five punts and two field goals in last week's loss against Florida, a less functional but more talented offense than they'll see this week. Keep an eye on the Aggies' junior defensive end Damontre Moore, who has three tackles for loss for 21 combined yards—he can wreak havoc against an O-line like SMU's. I have a feeling, though, that this game will come down to A&M's offense—will Johnny Manziel get the protection he needs to move A&M down the field? He was sacked three times last week and needs more time to pick a team like this apart.
Wednesday, September 12, 2012
Week 3: Let's have a Holy War!
By Kyle Magin
Nothing gets me stoked for the weekend like a good, old fashioned blood feud. Take it away, state of Utah:
Utah @ BYU -4
The BYU Cougars are looking for a little revenge after two straight losses to the Utes, including last year's 54-10 drubbing at The U in Salt Lake City. They might just get it this year—the Cougars' defense has been outstanding, giving up an average of just 239 yards per game and 19 total points. Granted those stats were accumulated against fairly pedestrian competition—Washington State and Weber State—but the offense has also bordered on the spectacular, averaging 305 passing yards per game behind the sure leadership of Senior QB Riley Nelson. Utah's offense, on the other hand, looked like a mess last week in a bad loss to Utah State. Senior QB Jon Hays was putrid coming in for the injured, and now retired, Jordan Wynn last weekend, completing less than half of his passes while more than a third of the drives he led ended in 3 & outs, and more than half in punts. Now, we can chalk that up to preparedness, but Hays had better be ready to go to the air, because BYU is holding opponents to just 55 yards rushing per game. The Utes slightly undersized o-line may be the difference in this one against an experienced and talented BYU front 7.
USC -8 @ Stanford
Only SC could win 49-29, shut an explosive pass offense out for one half and have that be considered a disappointment, but the Trojans managed the feat. Syracuse is a team SC should have blown the doors off of, and it is a team that maybe exposed the Trojans' pass D just a little bit, but this is still a team averaging 290 passing yards while senior QB Matt Barkley tossed 10 touchdowns in two games. It is a team that managed 258 yards on the ground last week. This week it'll face a Stanford team with a stout defense, giving up just 1.2 yards per rush last week and closing out a surprisingly sloppy performance against San Jose State by holding the Spartans to 3 & outs in four of their last five drives—the fifth drive ending in interception caused by QB pressure. Led by Senior LB Shayne Skov, the Cardinal defense is truly dirty, but the offense led by Junior QB Josh Nunes has been troubled. Just 85th in passing yards and 93rd in rushing yards, I'm not sure Stanford has enough to keep up with the SC attack—even if it stalls.
Houston @ UCLA -17
UCLA's offense is on turbo mode right now—averaging 343 rush yards and more than 300 passing yards per game behind the leadership of true frosh QB Brett Hundley. The only worry is that his reticence to throw and his o-line has led to his being sacked 5 times in two games—and dinged because of it. But, Houston's pass rush has been downright miserable, getting exposed in two straight losses. Houston can score with the best of them—the offense is ranked 4th in the nation right now—but until it can stop someone, that over is looking tasty.
Nothing gets me stoked for the weekend like a good, old fashioned blood feud. Take it away, state of Utah:
Are you amped for a little LDS–on–gentile violence? I can't wait for the showdown in Provo Saturday, as well as USC's visit to Palo Alto. UCLA is intriguing—is their start flash or something real and sustainable?
The BYU Cougars are looking for a little revenge after two straight losses to the Utes, including last year's 54-10 drubbing at The U in Salt Lake City. They might just get it this year—the Cougars' defense has been outstanding, giving up an average of just 239 yards per game and 19 total points. Granted those stats were accumulated against fairly pedestrian competition—Washington State and Weber State—but the offense has also bordered on the spectacular, averaging 305 passing yards per game behind the sure leadership of Senior QB Riley Nelson. Utah's offense, on the other hand, looked like a mess last week in a bad loss to Utah State. Senior QB Jon Hays was putrid coming in for the injured, and now retired, Jordan Wynn last weekend, completing less than half of his passes while more than a third of the drives he led ended in 3 & outs, and more than half in punts. Now, we can chalk that up to preparedness, but Hays had better be ready to go to the air, because BYU is holding opponents to just 55 yards rushing per game. The Utes slightly undersized o-line may be the difference in this one against an experienced and talented BYU front 7.
USC -8 @ Stanford
Only SC could win 49-29, shut an explosive pass offense out for one half and have that be considered a disappointment, but the Trojans managed the feat. Syracuse is a team SC should have blown the doors off of, and it is a team that maybe exposed the Trojans' pass D just a little bit, but this is still a team averaging 290 passing yards while senior QB Matt Barkley tossed 10 touchdowns in two games. It is a team that managed 258 yards on the ground last week. This week it'll face a Stanford team with a stout defense, giving up just 1.2 yards per rush last week and closing out a surprisingly sloppy performance against San Jose State by holding the Spartans to 3 & outs in four of their last five drives—the fifth drive ending in interception caused by QB pressure. Led by Senior LB Shayne Skov, the Cardinal defense is truly dirty, but the offense led by Junior QB Josh Nunes has been troubled. Just 85th in passing yards and 93rd in rushing yards, I'm not sure Stanford has enough to keep up with the SC attack—even if it stalls.
Houston @ UCLA -17
UCLA's offense is on turbo mode right now—averaging 343 rush yards and more than 300 passing yards per game behind the leadership of true frosh QB Brett Hundley. The only worry is that his reticence to throw and his o-line has led to his being sacked 5 times in two games—and dinged because of it. But, Houston's pass rush has been downright miserable, getting exposed in two straight losses. Houston can score with the best of them—the offense is ranked 4th in the nation right now—but until it can stop someone, that over is looking tasty.
Tuesday, September 11, 2012
Week 3: I don't care for Auburn
By Kyle Magin
Honestly, who predicted the positions Tennessee and Auburn would be in going into week 3? The Vols looks like a potential player on the national stage—forget the suspect SEC LEast. Head Coach Derek Dooley is off the hot seat and playing host to one of the hottest college football tickets in town Saturday when the Gators come on up to Rocky Top. Meanwhile, the moribund Tigers are 0-2 and rudderless, looking a far cry from the team that won the national title just two seasons ago. Suddenly, Head Coach Gene Chizik is on the hot seat because Alabamans have no goddamn sense. He won you a title two years ago. I'm going to turn it over to Early and T-Pain:
To the games!
Louisiana–Monroe @ Auburn -16.5
War Eagle vs. Warhawk took on a whole new dimension last week when La. Monroe beat Arkansas at home—which would normally be good news for the Tigers, except they're winless heading into the matchup. Auburn is hapless on the offensive side of the ball at first glance—QB Kiehl Frazier is completing a wretched 49 percent of his throws and has tossed four picks. What's worse is his rushing game—accounting for just 135 yards per game and just 3.6 yards per carry. The lone bright spot is when Frazier does throw completions he is averaging 13.3 yards, a stat that'd be encouraging if Louisiana–Monroe wasn't a team that just held the vaunted Razorback passing attack to 11 first downs and a 42 percent completion percentage. On this blog I have a history of supporting the little guy, sometimes to a fault, so let's clear the air: Auburn is a supremely talented team and should roll easily. But, we know very little about where this team's head is right now, and the line fluctuated wildly when it was first released, bouncing from -16 to -19 to its current holding pattern at 16.5.
Alabama -19.5 @ Arkansas
Books are scared to death of this game (there's a Southern illiteracy joke in there I'm not going to touch) and you should be too. A lot of books don't have a line posted yet, and the ones who do waited until today to open with a 19 or 19.5. There are a lot of questions right now and unless you feel really confident about Nick Saban's Tide—there's almost no reason not too—then stand pat. Arkansas had a helluva struggle last week and supposedly all–world QB Tyler Wilson struggled and suffered an apparent concussion. Wilson's status is key to the game and the line, if he is healthy, Arkansas' chances do nothing but improve behind the senior who averaged more than 13 yards per completion last year and tossed 24 TDs. I don't need to tell you who he's lining up against, though. The Tide defense has held opponents to 493 yards of combined offense in two games. 'Bama is averaging 16.3 yards per completion to opponents' 12.2. They've allowed one passing touchdown and exactly zero scores in the first and fourth quarters of either of their games. Wilson had better be ready.
Florida @ Tennessee -3
Tennessee has some absolute monsters on offense, with QB Tyler Bray completing passes at a 73 percent clip and tossing 6 touchdowns so far in the young season. WR Cordarrelle Patterson is a beast, averaging more than 18 yards per catch with longs of 84 yards receiving and 67 yards rushing. The Tennessee machine—which, by the way, is holding opponents to just about 100 yards rushing per game—faces a Florida squad that is also 2-0 but has been unspectacular in two outings. The Gator D has stood tall—allowing less than 16 points per game, but the rushing game has struggled and QB Jeff Driskell is still trying to find his rhythm and has been protected by the coaching staff, throwing only 32 times in his first two games. He'll need to step it up to keep up with Tennessee, especially at Rocky Top.
Honestly, who predicted the positions Tennessee and Auburn would be in going into week 3? The Vols looks like a potential player on the national stage—forget the suspect SEC LEast. Head Coach Derek Dooley is off the hot seat and playing host to one of the hottest college football tickets in town Saturday when the Gators come on up to Rocky Top. Meanwhile, the moribund Tigers are 0-2 and rudderless, looking a far cry from the team that won the national title just two seasons ago. Suddenly, Head Coach Gene Chizik is on the hot seat because Alabamans have no goddamn sense. He won you a title two years ago. I'm going to turn it over to Early and T-Pain:
Louisiana–Monroe @ Auburn -16.5
War Eagle vs. Warhawk took on a whole new dimension last week when La. Monroe beat Arkansas at home—which would normally be good news for the Tigers, except they're winless heading into the matchup. Auburn is hapless on the offensive side of the ball at first glance—QB Kiehl Frazier is completing a wretched 49 percent of his throws and has tossed four picks. What's worse is his rushing game—accounting for just 135 yards per game and just 3.6 yards per carry. The lone bright spot is when Frazier does throw completions he is averaging 13.3 yards, a stat that'd be encouraging if Louisiana–Monroe wasn't a team that just held the vaunted Razorback passing attack to 11 first downs and a 42 percent completion percentage. On this blog I have a history of supporting the little guy, sometimes to a fault, so let's clear the air: Auburn is a supremely talented team and should roll easily. But, we know very little about where this team's head is right now, and the line fluctuated wildly when it was first released, bouncing from -16 to -19 to its current holding pattern at 16.5.
Alabama -19.5 @ Arkansas
Books are scared to death of this game (there's a Southern illiteracy joke in there I'm not going to touch) and you should be too. A lot of books don't have a line posted yet, and the ones who do waited until today to open with a 19 or 19.5. There are a lot of questions right now and unless you feel really confident about Nick Saban's Tide—there's almost no reason not too—then stand pat. Arkansas had a helluva struggle last week and supposedly all–world QB Tyler Wilson struggled and suffered an apparent concussion. Wilson's status is key to the game and the line, if he is healthy, Arkansas' chances do nothing but improve behind the senior who averaged more than 13 yards per completion last year and tossed 24 TDs. I don't need to tell you who he's lining up against, though. The Tide defense has held opponents to 493 yards of combined offense in two games. 'Bama is averaging 16.3 yards per completion to opponents' 12.2. They've allowed one passing touchdown and exactly zero scores in the first and fourth quarters of either of their games. Wilson had better be ready.
Florida @ Tennessee -3
Tennessee has some absolute monsters on offense, with QB Tyler Bray completing passes at a 73 percent clip and tossing 6 touchdowns so far in the young season. WR Cordarrelle Patterson is a beast, averaging more than 18 yards per catch with longs of 84 yards receiving and 67 yards rushing. The Tennessee machine—which, by the way, is holding opponents to just about 100 yards rushing per game—faces a Florida squad that is also 2-0 but has been unspectacular in two outings. The Gator D has stood tall—allowing less than 16 points per game, but the rushing game has struggled and QB Jeff Driskell is still trying to find his rhythm and has been protected by the coaching staff, throwing only 32 times in his first two games. He'll need to step it up to keep up with Tennessee, especially at Rocky Top.
Monday, September 10, 2012
Week 3: Midwest Monday
By Kyle Magin
Many teams go into reputation-establishing battle Saturday.
Only a few can come out. In the land of meat and potatoes, Michigan State welcomes Notre Dame into Spartan Stadium, while Cal takes its wildly inconsistent defense into Ohio State. Then, Wisconsin, the poor, hapless Badgers, welcome in Utah State in what's sure to be a total pillow fight throwdown. Wisconsin is looking to find out if last week's loss to Oregon State was just a fluke or if this is going to be a long season at Camp Randall, while Ohio State takes a shot at a high-powered out-of-conference foe and ND goes to MSU to try to extend its winning streak to two games. Let's take a look at the matchups.
Notre Dame @ Michigan State -4
The Irish had problems at home against Purdue last week, barely scraping by as the offense struggled to gain ground with the rushing attack and had to lean on a suspect pass game to get by. That'll be a problem against the Spartans, who are holding opposing passing games to less than a 48 percent completion percentage and 200 yards per game. Opposing rushing attacks aren't doing any better against the Spartan D. The Irish have been strong against opposing pass offenses, which bodes poorly for MSU's attack, led by the still-inexperienced QB Andrew Maxwell. Still, as stated earlier, this is a special Spartan Defense.
Cal @ Ohio State -18
In Cal's one game against a competitive team this season—a 31-24 loss to Nevada—it gave up 9.2 yards per completion, something you can bet tOSU coach Urban Meyer is taking note of. If Braxton Miller can force Cal into man to man pass coverage with his legs—a tall order given Cal's fairly strong defense against the run—he'll open up room for a few bombs and it'll be a long day for the boys from Berkeley. Cal QB Zach Maynard has run hot and cold but got very hot last week against Southern Utah, and is averaging north of 13 yards per completion. OSU is strong in the 'Shoe, though.
Utah State @ Wisconsin -14
Utah State appears to actually have a really good defense—holding opponents to 11.5 points per game. Quarterback Chuckie Keeton is completing passes at a 77 percent rate—throwing for nearly 12 yards with every completion while his rushing attack averages a little better than 5 yards per carry. Wisconsin cannot get its offense going, struggling mightily in the rushing game with Montee Ball having a difficult time getting his season going. If Ball and Co. can't buy QB Danny O'Brien more time in the passing game, it'll be a tall order for the Badgers to keep up with Keeton and the Aggies.
Many teams go into reputation-establishing battle Saturday.
Notre Dame @ Michigan State -4
The Irish had problems at home against Purdue last week, barely scraping by as the offense struggled to gain ground with the rushing attack and had to lean on a suspect pass game to get by. That'll be a problem against the Spartans, who are holding opposing passing games to less than a 48 percent completion percentage and 200 yards per game. Opposing rushing attacks aren't doing any better against the Spartan D. The Irish have been strong against opposing pass offenses, which bodes poorly for MSU's attack, led by the still-inexperienced QB Andrew Maxwell. Still, as stated earlier, this is a special Spartan Defense.
Cal @ Ohio State -18
In Cal's one game against a competitive team this season—a 31-24 loss to Nevada—it gave up 9.2 yards per completion, something you can bet tOSU coach Urban Meyer is taking note of. If Braxton Miller can force Cal into man to man pass coverage with his legs—a tall order given Cal's fairly strong defense against the run—he'll open up room for a few bombs and it'll be a long day for the boys from Berkeley. Cal QB Zach Maynard has run hot and cold but got very hot last week against Southern Utah, and is averaging north of 13 yards per completion. OSU is strong in the 'Shoe, though.
Utah State @ Wisconsin -14
Utah State appears to actually have a really good defense—holding opponents to 11.5 points per game. Quarterback Chuckie Keeton is completing passes at a 77 percent rate—throwing for nearly 12 yards with every completion while his rushing attack averages a little better than 5 yards per carry. Wisconsin cannot get its offense going, struggling mightily in the rushing game with Montee Ball having a difficult time getting his season going. If Ball and Co. can't buy QB Danny O'Brien more time in the passing game, it'll be a tall order for the Badgers to keep up with Keeton and the Aggies.
Sunday, September 9, 2012
Week 3: Redemption Song
By Kyle Magin
TNG is back! After a rough week 1, we came back in a big way with Friday's picks, going 8-4 as a unit. We're still under .500 on the season at 11-13, but it's still young. For your notes, Big Tex and Kyle went 3-1 and Marcus came out even at 2-2.
In week 3 we step back into a world of ranked matchups—Michigan State and Notre Dame, Tennessee and Florida, USC and Stanford—and a week that (probably) won't finish with the largest line ever issued by Vegas as Savannah State is taking a week off of playing Republican Guard vs. US military. Let's take a look at the upcoming week:
Wake @ FSU -24
Cal @ Ohio State -18
TCU -20.5 @ Kansas
La. Monroe @ Auburn -16
Alabama @ Arkansas
A&M -13.5 @ SMU
Florida @ Tenn -2
USC -9 @ Stanford
ND@MSU -4
USU@Wisc -14
BYU -4 @Utah
Houston @ UCLA -17
**Boxing**
Sergio "Maravilla" Martinez -185 vs. Julia Caesar Chavez, Jr.
Notes: Florida State hasn't been tested yet this season, will they be ready for Wake's pass attack?...Cal Quarterback Zach Maynard will need to improve his passing efficiency...Kansas' Charlie Weis gets his first crack at a Big 12 opponent...Louisiana Monroe-Auburn opened a few hours ago at -17, maybe Vegas is scared of the Warhawks?...'Bama-Arkansas looked huge before yesterday...A&M gets a breather after Florida...Florida, on the other hand, goes to Rocky Top...Big matchup in the Pac 12 between USC-Stanford, or will Stanford be unmasked?...Notre Dame plays its first true road game...Wisconsin looks to bounce back from a demoralizing loss against a USU team riding high...The Holy War is less compelling football after the Utes loss...UCLA QB Brett Hundley is becoming must-watch TV...Maravilla is a favorite with a lot more to fight for.
In week 3 we step back into a world of ranked matchups—Michigan State and Notre Dame, Tennessee and Florida, USC and Stanford—and a week that (probably) won't finish with the largest line ever issued by Vegas as Savannah State is taking a week off of playing Republican Guard vs. US military. Let's take a look at the upcoming week:
Wake @ FSU -24
Cal @ Ohio State -18
TCU -20.5 @ Kansas
La. Monroe @ Auburn -16
Alabama @ Arkansas
A&M -13.5 @ SMU
Florida @ Tenn -2
USC -9 @ Stanford
ND@MSU -4
USU@Wisc -14
BYU -4 @Utah
Houston @ UCLA -17
**Boxing**
Sergio "Maravilla" Martinez -185 vs. Julia Caesar Chavez, Jr.
Notes: Florida State hasn't been tested yet this season, will they be ready for Wake's pass attack?...Cal Quarterback Zach Maynard will need to improve his passing efficiency...Kansas' Charlie Weis gets his first crack at a Big 12 opponent...Louisiana Monroe-Auburn opened a few hours ago at -17, maybe Vegas is scared of the Warhawks?...'Bama-Arkansas looked huge before yesterday...A&M gets a breather after Florida...Florida, on the other hand, goes to Rocky Top...Big matchup in the Pac 12 between USC-Stanford, or will Stanford be unmasked?...Notre Dame plays its first true road game...Wisconsin looks to bounce back from a demoralizing loss against a USU team riding high...The Holy War is less compelling football after the Utes loss...UCLA QB Brett Hundley is becoming must-watch TV...Maravilla is a favorite with a lot more to fight for.
Friday, September 7, 2012
Week 2: The picks are in! The picks are in!
By TNG
Let's try this again, shall we? After a miserable week of picking games (TNG went 3-9 as a unit last week) we're back to try our hand at guiding your bets this weekend. Some of us swore off betting on our teams, others turned to voodoo and some have adopted a minimalist's stance on defending these picks up front. Whatever the strategy, let's hope like hell it works, because (6 second mark):
Let's get to it.
Big Tex says...
Season record: 1-3
Last week: 1-3
Big Tex perhaps ate a Texas–sized piece of humble pie, or actually has, you know, a busy life. Either way, he wins the award for shortest picks ever by a TNG picker. Good job, or something.
Texas Tech @ Texas State
Over 59.5 points
The total has gone OVER in eight of Tech's last 11 games.
New Mexico +38.5 @ Texas
Texas is 7-16-1 ATS in its last 24 games at home.
Penn State @ Virginia -9.5
Virginia to cover only because Penn State is not good.
Illinois@ Arizona State -3.5
I like ASU to cover.
Penn State @ Virginia -9.5
Virginia to cover only because Penn State is not good.
Illinois@ Arizona State -3.5
I like ASU to cover.
Marcus says...
Season record: 1-3
Last week: 1-3
Michigan St. -20 @ Central Michigan
I witnessed Sparty's 2009 embarrassing home loss at the hands of CMU, but also was there for the beat down MSU put on the Chips in 2011. Last weeks game showed that Andrew Maxwell has some work to do, but also that Le'Veon Bell is a horse. Sparty doubled about Boise in time of possession on the back of Bell. Central Michigan opened with a win against SE Missouri State on the strength of two 100 yard rushers. I don't see that performance duplicated and while Kelly / Shorts Stadium will be at a fever pitch, this game will be over at halftime. Take MSU to cover.
Wisconsin -7 @ Oregon State
Wiscy ALMOST ruined their season in week 1, barely getting by Northern Iowa. Cinderella story if you lose to the Panthers in the NCAA basketball tournament. Flat out embarrassing in football. New transfer QB Danny O'Brien didn't turn the ball over and completed 83% of his passes, but the memory of last years transfer-rule exploitation, er sensation, Russell Wilson will continue to linger. Oregon State had their week 1 postponed as Hurricane Isaac kept Nicholls State in Louisiana. Corvallis will be rocking, but Wisconsin will have a chip on their shoulder from last week. Montee Ball explodes, take the Badgers to cover.
Air Force +21 @ Michigan
The Wolverines plummeted in the polls after the beat down they took at the hands of Bama last week. Michigan was clearly outmatched as the Crimson Tide showed they've reloaded and are ready to make another BCS title run. Michigan has to be concerned about their rush defense after giving up 200+. While Air Force isn't Alabama they are one of the most potent rushing attacks in college football. Cody Getz rushed for 218 yards on 17 carries last week against Idaho State. I expect Denard to get loose and the Wolverines to win this one, but not by 3 TDs. I'm taking Air Force and the points.
Purdue @ Notre Dame -14
This game will be our live tweet (cell service permitting) of the week as I will be inside Notre Dame Stadium taking in the home opener. Sophomore QB Everett Golson did enough in his first career start last week in Dublin to keep Tommy Rees on the sideline. Rees, a Junior who started most of last year, is back from a one game suspension. Golson moved the offense down the field and only turned the ball over once. The Boilers will go with Senior QB Caleb TerBush who also served a suspension last week. Former Miami Hurricane QB Robert Marve played well in last week's opener but will be back to backup duties in South Bend. The Irish ground attack led the way against Navy and expects to be on display again as Golson continues to get more comfortable. I'm taking ND to cover.
Kyle says...
Season record: 1-3
Last week: 1-3
Michigan State -20 @ Central Michigan
The Spartans struggled last week on offense, true enough, but praise for the work the defense did was lost in the shuffle. MSU pitched a shutout of Boise State in the second half, holding the Broncos to four drives averaging less than 2:30 and ending in three punts and a turnover on downs. They brutalized Boise in the back half of the game, and that's important to remember against a team like the Chips, who may have a strong set of starters but are woefully thin and young on the bench. If the Spartan defense can shorten the offense's stay in a similar way, Central's defense gets tested and will have to sub in new bodies. That's when State RB Le'Veon Bell goes to work—he totaled close to 180 yards in the second half last week. Central did work on the ground last week, too, but QB Ryan Radcliff struggled through the air, and if MSU can load up on the line, it'll be a long night in Flat Misery. Spartans to cover.
Purdue @ Notre Dame -14.5
The Fighting Irish looked really good in Dublin last week, hanging a 50 spot on Navy in a predawn drubbing. Purdue looked very solid in its opener vs. Eastern Kentucky, and QB Robert Marve was extremely accurate passing the ball. He'll need to stay that way if he'd like to remain undefeated against the Irish, who, behind senior LB Manti Te'o, stuffed the run very effectively. The Irish were vulnerable against the pass and gave up close to 10 yards per attempt, but I believe that's more a function of Navy passing to play catchup than the Irish bending too far. Look for the Irish to swamp one of the B1G's weakest links. ND to cover.
Washington @ LSU -24
I vacillated heavily (is that a medical condition!?) over this one, finally deciding the Bayou Bengals will be just too much for the Dawgs. The LSU offense, under Zach Mettenberger, averaged just less than 7 yards per rush and just more than 10 yards per completion last week. Now, facing a better pass defense in Washington with Shaq Thompson and Desmond Trufant, Mettenberger won't have it quite as easy, but he'll still have the rush game to back him up, which is more than his counterpart Keith Price can say for U-Dub. San Diego State stuffed Washington's rush game last week, allowing just a little more than 100 yards, and LSU's defense is at least twice as good. Forcing Price to the air that much more often ups his chances for a f---up, and nobody capitalizes on turnovers like this LSU D. I'm taking the Tigers to cover.
Florida @ Texas A&M -1
Pressure is the name of this game—A&M enters their first SEC matchup a home favorite, and after Florida's shaky outing last week, the Gators need to make a statement. In Florida's shockingly close win over Bowling Green last week, the defense did tighten up as the game went on—especially on BG's rush game. RB Mike GIllislee ensured Florida won the crucial time of possession battle to keep them ahead. We still don't know anything about this A&M team yet, outside of the fact that they're breaking in a new quarterback. If last week's games were any indication, that's no easy task, especially if the Gator D can hamper the Aggies ability to pass. I look for Florida to cover.
I witnessed Sparty's 2009 embarrassing home loss at the hands of CMU, but also was there for the beat down MSU put on the Chips in 2011. Last weeks game showed that Andrew Maxwell has some work to do, but also that Le'Veon Bell is a horse. Sparty doubled about Boise in time of possession on the back of Bell. Central Michigan opened with a win against SE Missouri State on the strength of two 100 yard rushers. I don't see that performance duplicated and while Kelly / Shorts Stadium will be at a fever pitch, this game will be over at halftime. Take MSU to cover.
Wisconsin -7 @ Oregon State
Wiscy ALMOST ruined their season in week 1, barely getting by Northern Iowa. Cinderella story if you lose to the Panthers in the NCAA basketball tournament. Flat out embarrassing in football. New transfer QB Danny O'Brien didn't turn the ball over and completed 83% of his passes, but the memory of last years transfer-rule exploitation, er sensation, Russell Wilson will continue to linger. Oregon State had their week 1 postponed as Hurricane Isaac kept Nicholls State in Louisiana. Corvallis will be rocking, but Wisconsin will have a chip on their shoulder from last week. Montee Ball explodes, take the Badgers to cover.
Air Force +21 @ Michigan
The Wolverines plummeted in the polls after the beat down they took at the hands of Bama last week. Michigan was clearly outmatched as the Crimson Tide showed they've reloaded and are ready to make another BCS title run. Michigan has to be concerned about their rush defense after giving up 200+. While Air Force isn't Alabama they are one of the most potent rushing attacks in college football. Cody Getz rushed for 218 yards on 17 carries last week against Idaho State. I expect Denard to get loose and the Wolverines to win this one, but not by 3 TDs. I'm taking Air Force and the points.
Purdue @ Notre Dame -14
This game will be our live tweet (cell service permitting) of the week as I will be inside Notre Dame Stadium taking in the home opener. Sophomore QB Everett Golson did enough in his first career start last week in Dublin to keep Tommy Rees on the sideline. Rees, a Junior who started most of last year, is back from a one game suspension. Golson moved the offense down the field and only turned the ball over once. The Boilers will go with Senior QB Caleb TerBush who also served a suspension last week. Former Miami Hurricane QB Robert Marve played well in last week's opener but will be back to backup duties in South Bend. The Irish ground attack led the way against Navy and expects to be on display again as Golson continues to get more comfortable. I'm taking ND to cover.
Kyle says...
Season record: 1-3
Last week: 1-3
Michigan State -20 @ Central Michigan
The Spartans struggled last week on offense, true enough, but praise for the work the defense did was lost in the shuffle. MSU pitched a shutout of Boise State in the second half, holding the Broncos to four drives averaging less than 2:30 and ending in three punts and a turnover on downs. They brutalized Boise in the back half of the game, and that's important to remember against a team like the Chips, who may have a strong set of starters but are woefully thin and young on the bench. If the Spartan defense can shorten the offense's stay in a similar way, Central's defense gets tested and will have to sub in new bodies. That's when State RB Le'Veon Bell goes to work—he totaled close to 180 yards in the second half last week. Central did work on the ground last week, too, but QB Ryan Radcliff struggled through the air, and if MSU can load up on the line, it'll be a long night in Flat Misery. Spartans to cover.
Purdue @ Notre Dame -14.5
The Fighting Irish looked really good in Dublin last week, hanging a 50 spot on Navy in a predawn drubbing. Purdue looked very solid in its opener vs. Eastern Kentucky, and QB Robert Marve was extremely accurate passing the ball. He'll need to stay that way if he'd like to remain undefeated against the Irish, who, behind senior LB Manti Te'o, stuffed the run very effectively. The Irish were vulnerable against the pass and gave up close to 10 yards per attempt, but I believe that's more a function of Navy passing to play catchup than the Irish bending too far. Look for the Irish to swamp one of the B1G's weakest links. ND to cover.
Washington @ LSU -24
I vacillated heavily (is that a medical condition!?) over this one, finally deciding the Bayou Bengals will be just too much for the Dawgs. The LSU offense, under Zach Mettenberger, averaged just less than 7 yards per rush and just more than 10 yards per completion last week. Now, facing a better pass defense in Washington with Shaq Thompson and Desmond Trufant, Mettenberger won't have it quite as easy, but he'll still have the rush game to back him up, which is more than his counterpart Keith Price can say for U-Dub. San Diego State stuffed Washington's rush game last week, allowing just a little more than 100 yards, and LSU's defense is at least twice as good. Forcing Price to the air that much more often ups his chances for a f---up, and nobody capitalizes on turnovers like this LSU D. I'm taking the Tigers to cover.
Florida @ Texas A&M -1
Pressure is the name of this game—A&M enters their first SEC matchup a home favorite, and after Florida's shaky outing last week, the Gators need to make a statement. In Florida's shockingly close win over Bowling Green last week, the defense did tighten up as the game went on—especially on BG's rush game. RB Mike GIllislee ensured Florida won the crucial time of possession battle to keep them ahead. We still don't know anything about this A&M team yet, outside of the fact that they're breaking in a new quarterback. If last week's games were any indication, that's no easy task, especially if the Gator D can hamper the Aggies ability to pass. I look for Florida to cover.
Thursday, September 6, 2012
Week 2: Road Warriors
By Kyle Magin
It's an evil time in the future, when no ranked teams are playing one another and all manner of angst and nastiness are prevalent in college football. It's this upcoming Saturday.
We do get some interesting cross-coastal matchups, though, and a few teams who already need to make a statement or get ready for basketball season. Let's look at a few:
USC -26 @ Syracuse
What's there to say about USC after they drubbed Hawaii last week? Matt Barkley looks like one of the best QBs in the nation and Marqise Lee appears to be a very dangerous receiver. Syracuse will need to muster a more impressive rushing game than they did in an opening loss to Northwestern, when they managed just 81. If they get into a shootout with USC and can't even the time of posession, they have no hope.
New Mexico @ Texas -38
Texas' D struggled at times in an opening 38-17 victory over Wyoming. The offense, behind David Ash, looked solid if not spectacular, but the defense lapsed at time in ways that show the Horns could be burnt by a good team. Thankfully for the Horns, New Mexico does not pass the ball and are not a good team. If Texas loads up the box to stuff the triple option, the Lobos do not have the tools to pass over them.
Penn State @ Virginia -9.5
Penn State visits Virginia for the next act in its season–long horror story. Matt McGloin made it clear last week against Ohio that he cannot make up for a rushing game gained him just about 100 yards, struggling to complete balls late and throwing a pick. If Virginia can again stop the Lions rushing attack, they'll win the time of posession easily and it'll be on McGloin to carry PSU's offense, a thought that makes folks in State College sick.
It's an evil time in the future, when no ranked teams are playing one another and all manner of angst and nastiness are prevalent in college football. It's this upcoming Saturday.
We do get some interesting cross-coastal matchups, though, and a few teams who already need to make a statement or get ready for basketball season. Let's look at a few:
USC -26 @ Syracuse
What's there to say about USC after they drubbed Hawaii last week? Matt Barkley looks like one of the best QBs in the nation and Marqise Lee appears to be a very dangerous receiver. Syracuse will need to muster a more impressive rushing game than they did in an opening loss to Northwestern, when they managed just 81. If they get into a shootout with USC and can't even the time of posession, they have no hope.
New Mexico @ Texas -38
Texas' D struggled at times in an opening 38-17 victory over Wyoming. The offense, behind David Ash, looked solid if not spectacular, but the defense lapsed at time in ways that show the Horns could be burnt by a good team. Thankfully for the Horns, New Mexico does not pass the ball and are not a good team. If Texas loads up the box to stuff the triple option, the Lobos do not have the tools to pass over them.
Penn State @ Virginia -9.5
Penn State visits Virginia for the next act in its season–long horror story. Matt McGloin made it clear last week against Ohio that he cannot make up for a rushing game gained him just about 100 yards, struggling to complete balls late and throwing a pick. If Virginia can again stop the Lions rushing attack, they'll win the time of posession easily and it'll be on McGloin to carry PSU's offense, a thought that makes folks in State College sick.
Wednesday, September 5, 2012
Week 2: Way out West Wednesday
By Kyle Magin
Then all at once the trouble started (sharted?)
I'd say you've had enough! But you haven't, because it's only Wednesday, and we've still got the Wild, Wild West to cover. While the upcoming slate of games this week is pretty weak, overall, there are a few compelling matchups on the far side of the Mississippi. Let's get to it.
Nebraska -5.5 @ UCLA
The Cornhuskers head into the City of Angels after a historic Saturday that saw QB Taylor Martinez annihilate Southern Miss with 354 passing yards, completing 76 percent of his throws. Martinez got spectacular protection from his line, and that's bad news for a UCLA defense that had a problem giving up some long receptions to the likes of Rice's RB Sam McGuffie last week. Nebraska struggled against the run, though, giving up 180-plus yards against an inferior opponent in Southern. That's a part of the game where the Bruins excel—freshman QB Brett Hundley busted a 72–yard gain on the first play from scrimmage last week and the team tallied 300-plus rushing yards. The wildcard here is Nebraska's running game—it looked fine last week after leading rusher Rex Burkhead suffered an ACL injury, but he's questionable again for this weekend's showdown. UCLA is 16-9 as a home dog against the spread in the last 10 years—something to think about.
Oklahoma State -11 @ Arizona
The Fighting T. Boone Pickenses roll into Tuscon after winning 84-0 against Savannah State. I'm going to let that sink in.
84-0. They overshot their line by 22 points. Savannah State's head coach thanked OK St. Head Coach Mike Gundy for taking his foot off the gas. This is an offense that lost its top receiver and world-beater QB and still managed to cover the biggest spread in history. Any statistical look at an 84-0 game is by definition stupid, so let's agree that OK St. is coming in with a top-flight defense at all three levels and an offense that is considerably less suspect than it was going into last week, led by freshman QB Wes Lunt. 'Zona looked shaky on defense in last week's overtime win over Toledo and coughed up 3 turnovers on offense. That will not fly against the opportunistic Cowboys, who averaged 1.6 takeaways last year on defense. Arizona will need to establish its running game, which looked strong at times last week, to slow down this OSU attack. Cats QB Matt Scott must continue to find his targets deep for 'Zona to stay close. OSU has dominated the Cats in the last two years, winning twice by a combined score of 73-27.
Fresno State @ Oregon -34.5
Oregon demolished Arkansas State last week, getting contributions from both the running and passing game on offense, led by HUMAN SWISS ARMY KNIFE® DeAnthony Thomas with a million touchdowns (or, you know, 2 rushing TDs, 1 receiving.) Oregon looked otherworldly and stepped on ASU's throat early with a two point conversion after their first touchdown. But, they did get caught napping in the passing game a few times, giving up 14 points that shouldn't have been on the board in their 57-34 blowout. I say this because if anyone is going to catch someone else napping it'll be my girlfriend when I still have chores to do. Also Fresno State QB Derek Carr (yes, his little brother), who completed 80 percent of his passes in a win last week over Weber State, averaging nearly 12 yards per throw. This is not a bush league MWC QB to be trifled with but a legit threat with legit threats to throw to and a solid O-line. It'll be incumbent upon the Ducks to load up the line of scrimmage and stop the run, forcing the throw as Carr's only means of survival. Do that, eliminate easy third down conversions, and you've got him where you want him... but get caught napping and find out the hard way that Fresno is 21-13 against the spread as a road dog over the past 10 years.
Then all at once the trouble started (sharted?)
Nebraska -5.5 @ UCLA
The Cornhuskers head into the City of Angels after a historic Saturday that saw QB Taylor Martinez annihilate Southern Miss with 354 passing yards, completing 76 percent of his throws. Martinez got spectacular protection from his line, and that's bad news for a UCLA defense that had a problem giving up some long receptions to the likes of Rice's RB Sam McGuffie last week. Nebraska struggled against the run, though, giving up 180-plus yards against an inferior opponent in Southern. That's a part of the game where the Bruins excel—freshman QB Brett Hundley busted a 72–yard gain on the first play from scrimmage last week and the team tallied 300-plus rushing yards. The wildcard here is Nebraska's running game—it looked fine last week after leading rusher Rex Burkhead suffered an ACL injury, but he's questionable again for this weekend's showdown. UCLA is 16-9 as a home dog against the spread in the last 10 years—something to think about.
Oklahoma State -11 @ Arizona
The Fighting T. Boone Pickenses roll into Tuscon after winning 84-0 against Savannah State. I'm going to let that sink in.
84-0. They overshot their line by 22 points. Savannah State's head coach thanked OK St. Head Coach Mike Gundy for taking his foot off the gas. This is an offense that lost its top receiver and world-beater QB and still managed to cover the biggest spread in history. Any statistical look at an 84-0 game is by definition stupid, so let's agree that OK St. is coming in with a top-flight defense at all three levels and an offense that is considerably less suspect than it was going into last week, led by freshman QB Wes Lunt. 'Zona looked shaky on defense in last week's overtime win over Toledo and coughed up 3 turnovers on offense. That will not fly against the opportunistic Cowboys, who averaged 1.6 takeaways last year on defense. Arizona will need to establish its running game, which looked strong at times last week, to slow down this OSU attack. Cats QB Matt Scott must continue to find his targets deep for 'Zona to stay close. OSU has dominated the Cats in the last two years, winning twice by a combined score of 73-27.
Fresno State @ Oregon -34.5
Oregon demolished Arkansas State last week, getting contributions from both the running and passing game on offense, led by HUMAN SWISS ARMY KNIFE® DeAnthony Thomas with a million touchdowns (or, you know, 2 rushing TDs, 1 receiving.) Oregon looked otherworldly and stepped on ASU's throat early with a two point conversion after their first touchdown. But, they did get caught napping in the passing game a few times, giving up 14 points that shouldn't have been on the board in their 57-34 blowout. I say this because if anyone is going to catch someone else napping it'll be my girlfriend when I still have chores to do. Also Fresno State QB Derek Carr (yes, his little brother), who completed 80 percent of his passes in a win last week over Weber State, averaging nearly 12 yards per throw. This is not a bush league MWC QB to be trifled with but a legit threat with legit threats to throw to and a solid O-line. It'll be incumbent upon the Ducks to load up the line of scrimmage and stop the run, forcing the throw as Carr's only means of survival. Do that, eliminate easy third down conversions, and you've got him where you want him... but get caught napping and find out the hard way that Fresno is 21-13 against the spread as a road dog over the past 10 years.
Tuesday, September 4, 2012
Week 2: In with the new
By Kyle Magin
Dear Texas A&M,
As you embark on your journey through the SEC—a league that's won 6 of the last 6 national titles in FBS play—your old brothers from Austin wanted to bid you farewell in style, so let's let Justin Tucker take it away, shall we?
Godspeed, A&M!
—The BIG 12
Much has changed for the Aggies since we last talked, dear readers. World-beater QB Ryan Tannehill left for the cocaine and face–eating zombie ridden palm–lined streets of Miami, and A&M is officially now a member of the SEC's western division. Mike Sherman is out, Kevin Sumlin is in from Houston and the Aggs missed their week 1 showdown with Louisiana Tech due to rain. You're caught up.
Florida @ Texas A&M -2
Kyle Field (GREAT name) plays host to A&M's first SEC matchup against Florida. The Gators' pass game struggled mightily last week in a squeaker of a win over Bowling Green, managing just 145 yards. Today coach Will Muschamp named Jeff Driskell starter, ending a QB competition, and promised to open up the offense more after a run–happy first outing. That could spell trouble for A&M, who is less experienced at DL and in the defensive backfield than a squad that last year allowed 417 yards per game on the road. New Ags QB Johnny Manziel marches into this game against one of the top defenses in the country with a good o-line and great receiving corps and questions about the running game; oft-dinged Christine Michael is slated to start at RB. This game could come down, though, to Florida's offensive skill position players, notable the receivers, who struggled mightily last week. Florida is 8-5 as road dogs over the past 10 years, and Muschamp knows how to beat A&M: he went 2 for 3 against the Aggies during his time as Texas' defensive coordinator.
Washington @ LSU -23.5
U-Dub's offense was less than spectacular in its opener against SDSU last weekend—managing just 21 points. QB Keith Price was relatively efficient—70-plus percent completions—though, but he took 3 sacks, more a function of the SDSU defense keying on him instead of the Huskies' anemic rushing game. LSU's QB Zach Mettenberger looked very crisp in his first start, though, tallying a 73-plus percent completion rate and 7.39 yards per completion. His running game, led by Spencer Ware, looked really tough and he won't be forced into passing more than he's comfortable. U-Dub's defense looked good, but LSU's looked great, holding North Texas to 2.2 yards per carry. LSU isn't strong against the spread at home, though, and the last time these two got together in Seattle in '09, the Dogs kept it close in a loss.
Miami @ Kansas State -7
How bad is it in Coral Gables when six players leave early from the team after a 6-6 season? The U looked evenly balanced on offense in a 41-32 win over BC to start the season. But they aren't stopping shit—certainly not a K-State team that racked up 324 yards rushing in an opening beatdown of Missouri State. Quarterback Stephen Morris passed for a paltry 62 percent completion rate and just 4.6 yards per completion—and he'll need to improve each of those numbers significantly to keep up with K-State and defeat a defense that is gaining in experience. Manhattan is probably going to play host to a shootout Saturday.
Dear Texas A&M,
As you embark on your journey through the SEC—a league that's won 6 of the last 6 national titles in FBS play—your old brothers from Austin wanted to bid you farewell in style, so let's let Justin Tucker take it away, shall we?
—The BIG 12
Much has changed for the Aggies since we last talked, dear readers. World-beater QB Ryan Tannehill left for the cocaine and face–eating zombie ridden palm–lined streets of Miami, and A&M is officially now a member of the SEC's western division. Mike Sherman is out, Kevin Sumlin is in from Houston and the Aggs missed their week 1 showdown with Louisiana Tech due to rain. You're caught up.
Florida @ Texas A&M -2
Kyle Field (GREAT name) plays host to A&M's first SEC matchup against Florida. The Gators' pass game struggled mightily last week in a squeaker of a win over Bowling Green, managing just 145 yards. Today coach Will Muschamp named Jeff Driskell starter, ending a QB competition, and promised to open up the offense more after a run–happy first outing. That could spell trouble for A&M, who is less experienced at DL and in the defensive backfield than a squad that last year allowed 417 yards per game on the road. New Ags QB Johnny Manziel marches into this game against one of the top defenses in the country with a good o-line and great receiving corps and questions about the running game; oft-dinged Christine Michael is slated to start at RB. This game could come down, though, to Florida's offensive skill position players, notable the receivers, who struggled mightily last week. Florida is 8-5 as road dogs over the past 10 years, and Muschamp knows how to beat A&M: he went 2 for 3 against the Aggies during his time as Texas' defensive coordinator.
Washington @ LSU -23.5
U-Dub's offense was less than spectacular in its opener against SDSU last weekend—managing just 21 points. QB Keith Price was relatively efficient—70-plus percent completions—though, but he took 3 sacks, more a function of the SDSU defense keying on him instead of the Huskies' anemic rushing game. LSU's QB Zach Mettenberger looked very crisp in his first start, though, tallying a 73-plus percent completion rate and 7.39 yards per completion. His running game, led by Spencer Ware, looked really tough and he won't be forced into passing more than he's comfortable. U-Dub's defense looked good, but LSU's looked great, holding North Texas to 2.2 yards per carry. LSU isn't strong against the spread at home, though, and the last time these two got together in Seattle in '09, the Dogs kept it close in a loss.
Miami @ Kansas State -7
How bad is it in Coral Gables when six players leave early from the team after a 6-6 season? The U looked evenly balanced on offense in a 41-32 win over BC to start the season. But they aren't stopping shit—certainly not a K-State team that racked up 324 yards rushing in an opening beatdown of Missouri State. Quarterback Stephen Morris passed for a paltry 62 percent completion rate and just 4.6 yards per completion—and he'll need to improve each of those numbers significantly to keep up with K-State and defeat a defense that is gaining in experience. Manhattan is probably going to play host to a shootout Saturday.
Monday, September 3, 2012
Week 2: Midwest Monday or "Domestic men of mystery"
By Kyle Magin
This week's slate of games might not be the most impressive—OK, it's probably safe to just watch highlights of everything beside your team's performance—but we'll find some things out about a couple of mystery squads this week. Is Notre Dame's defense really THAT dominating? Is Michigan's that porous? Did MSU find a QB in Andrew Maxwell, or does the search continue? And what's the deal with airline food?
Onto the games:
Air Force @ Michigan -21
Michigan's inexperienced defensive line showed itself to be just that in its 41-14 loss to Alabama Saturday. That's a problem against an Air Force team that, while young, perennially averages 300 rushing yards per game on the road—nearly 6 yards per touch. To be fair, though, Michigan was shredded by the best team in the nation last week, and Air Force doesn't throw the ball that well, rendering the loss of CB Blake Countess pretty much moot. If UM can load up effectively on the defensive side of the ball it matches up favorably against a young bunch of AF OLs. Denard Robinson had difficulty passing against Alabama last week—who doesn't?—but he did manage a respectable 7.4 yards per completion, suggesting his receivers could wrack up a bunch more YAC against a defense that isn't one of the country's best. One thing to note, though—the Falcons are 17-13 against the spread as road dogs in the last decade and 3-3 against BCS opponents in road openers.
Michigan State -23.5 @ Central Michigan
Contrary to looking more experienced, Central's defense, especially its rush defense, looked consistently weak against a Southeastern Missouri squad last week that didn't have an RB named Le'Veon Bell. They have up nearly 5 yards per rush—and on Bell's career day against a much better defense, that was just about his average. MSU's passing game struggled tremendously last week, with QB Andrew Maxwell completing at just a 58 percent clip and tossing 3 INTs. Central's saving grace could be its offense under the direction of QB Ryan Radcliff, who completed his passes for an average of 7.4 yards, but only completed at a 60 percent clip and got a big assist from his rushing game, which will struggle against the Spartans' front 7, who looked about as good as advertised last week. Note, though, that while MSU stomped the Chips last year, they don't traditionally fare well against CMU and own a 5-3 record against them, and they've never made the trip to Mt. Pleasant.
Iowa State @ Iowa -4
Iowa stumbled badly on offense in its neutral field opener against NIU last week, but it's hardly unique in that aspect; a lot of teams struggle to put it all together in week 1. What is troubling is the Hawkeyes have an experienced quarterback and relative question marks at RB and WR, limping to just 129 passing yards and 139 rushing yards in the season opener. Iowa State has a take-charge offense behind QB Steele Jantz, who completed more than 70 percent of his passes while his defense pitched a shutout for the last 33 minutes of the opener. Where Iowa can make hay is by putting pressure on Jantz—ISU's o-line is weak and he has very little pocket awareness and holds the ball far too long, evidenced by his four sacks Saturday. Iowa's front like can get to the QB, and if Jantz goes down or is shaky, this could be a long day for the Cyclones.
Purdue @ Notre Dame -14.5
This is an Irish team that looked REALLY impressive running the ball Saturday vs. Navy to the tune of nearly 300 rushing yards without suspended starter Cierre Wood. QB Everett Golson looked proficient passing the ball and averaged 8 yards per completion. What was really impressive, though, was that Notre Dame's defense held a Navy offense that averaged nearly 30 points last year to just 10. LB Manti Te'o looked every bit the returning All American, and that's a problem for Purdue, who even though they smoked Eastern Kentucky in their opener, have a young o-line and an easily hurt/shaken QB in Robert Marve. Purdue looked every bit the offensive juggernaut last week but a defense that allowed 450 yards on the road last year remains highly suspect. Purdue is a 14-17-1 road dog against the spread in the last 10 years.
This week's slate of games might not be the most impressive—OK, it's probably safe to just watch highlights of everything beside your team's performance—but we'll find some things out about a couple of mystery squads this week. Is Notre Dame's defense really THAT dominating? Is Michigan's that porous? Did MSU find a QB in Andrew Maxwell, or does the search continue? And what's the deal with airline food?
Onto the games:
Air Force @ Michigan -21
Michigan's inexperienced defensive line showed itself to be just that in its 41-14 loss to Alabama Saturday. That's a problem against an Air Force team that, while young, perennially averages 300 rushing yards per game on the road—nearly 6 yards per touch. To be fair, though, Michigan was shredded by the best team in the nation last week, and Air Force doesn't throw the ball that well, rendering the loss of CB Blake Countess pretty much moot. If UM can load up effectively on the defensive side of the ball it matches up favorably against a young bunch of AF OLs. Denard Robinson had difficulty passing against Alabama last week—who doesn't?—but he did manage a respectable 7.4 yards per completion, suggesting his receivers could wrack up a bunch more YAC against a defense that isn't one of the country's best. One thing to note, though—the Falcons are 17-13 against the spread as road dogs in the last decade and 3-3 against BCS opponents in road openers.
Michigan State -23.5 @ Central Michigan
Contrary to looking more experienced, Central's defense, especially its rush defense, looked consistently weak against a Southeastern Missouri squad last week that didn't have an RB named Le'Veon Bell. They have up nearly 5 yards per rush—and on Bell's career day against a much better defense, that was just about his average. MSU's passing game struggled tremendously last week, with QB Andrew Maxwell completing at just a 58 percent clip and tossing 3 INTs. Central's saving grace could be its offense under the direction of QB Ryan Radcliff, who completed his passes for an average of 7.4 yards, but only completed at a 60 percent clip and got a big assist from his rushing game, which will struggle against the Spartans' front 7, who looked about as good as advertised last week. Note, though, that while MSU stomped the Chips last year, they don't traditionally fare well against CMU and own a 5-3 record against them, and they've never made the trip to Mt. Pleasant.
Iowa State @ Iowa -4
Iowa stumbled badly on offense in its neutral field opener against NIU last week, but it's hardly unique in that aspect; a lot of teams struggle to put it all together in week 1. What is troubling is the Hawkeyes have an experienced quarterback and relative question marks at RB and WR, limping to just 129 passing yards and 139 rushing yards in the season opener. Iowa State has a take-charge offense behind QB Steele Jantz, who completed more than 70 percent of his passes while his defense pitched a shutout for the last 33 minutes of the opener. Where Iowa can make hay is by putting pressure on Jantz—ISU's o-line is weak and he has very little pocket awareness and holds the ball far too long, evidenced by his four sacks Saturday. Iowa's front like can get to the QB, and if Jantz goes down or is shaky, this could be a long day for the Cyclones.
Purdue @ Notre Dame -14.5
This is an Irish team that looked REALLY impressive running the ball Saturday vs. Navy to the tune of nearly 300 rushing yards without suspended starter Cierre Wood. QB Everett Golson looked proficient passing the ball and averaged 8 yards per completion. What was really impressive, though, was that Notre Dame's defense held a Navy offense that averaged nearly 30 points last year to just 10. LB Manti Te'o looked every bit the returning All American, and that's a problem for Purdue, who even though they smoked Eastern Kentucky in their opener, have a young o-line and an easily hurt/shaken QB in Robert Marve. Purdue looked every bit the offensive juggernaut last week but a defense that allowed 450 yards on the road last year remains highly suspect. Purdue is a 14-17-1 road dog against the spread in the last 10 years.
Week 2: I get knocked down
By Kyle Magin
We're shaking off a "what the f---!?" weekend, otherwise known as a college football weekend, and getting back in the saddle again for week 2. As a unit, our pickers Big Tex, Kyle and Marcus went 3-9 on the weekend, but separately, we all went 1-3, so that sounds better. Football lines are a fickle mistress.
On the football tip, the games this upcoming weekend are dogsh-t in terms of matchups, in that there isn't a single throwdown between two ranked teams. There are a few interesting matchups borne of geography or unfamiliarity—Washington heads to LSU, Nebraska to UCLA, Florida and Texas A&M's first matchup as SEC rivals, a USC trip to the East Coast and Penn State's attempt to right the ship against Virginia. Let's take a look at this week's interesting lines:
Penn St. @ Virginia -10
Air Force @ Michigan -21
Miami @ Kansas State -7
Michigan State -23.5 @ CMU
USC -26.5 @ Syracuse
Purdue @ Notre Dame -14.5
Fresno State @ Oregon -34
Iowa State @ Iowa -4
Washington @ LSU -23.5
New Mexico @ Texas -37.5
Florida @ Texas A&M -2
Nebraska -5 @ UCLA
Oklahoma State -13.5 @ Arizona
Notes: Michigan opened yesterday at 21.5, just some adjustments, or is Vegas already losing confidence in Big Blue?... K-State stood tall against UM in Florida on a late drive last year, and looked stout in the running game last week...Michigan State hasn't had an easy time with Central, losing in '09, but the Chips looked really bad opening weekend...Anyone who saw USC last weekend knows to get that -26.5 now, because it's only going to rise...Can Notre Dame avoid a hangover from Ireland?...Fresno's passing game was on point last week, with Derek Carr completing at a 80 percent clip...Iowa State's offense is going to be a problem for Iowa, no two ways about it...UW's run game is not where it needs to be vs. LSU, gaining just north of 100 yards last week...If Texas loads up on the run, UNM will have to go to the air, and that's a problem for the Lobos, who managed just 70 passing yards last week...A&M starts its SEC slate without a week 1 tune up against La. Tech...Nebraska's Taylor Martinez set passing records last weekend, and now gets a shot at a UCLA defensive backfield that struggled at times against Rice last week...Oklahoma State covered a 62 pt. spread against Savannah State last week.
On the football tip, the games this upcoming weekend are dogsh-t in terms of matchups, in that there isn't a single throwdown between two ranked teams. There are a few interesting matchups borne of geography or unfamiliarity—Washington heads to LSU, Nebraska to UCLA, Florida and Texas A&M's first matchup as SEC rivals, a USC trip to the East Coast and Penn State's attempt to right the ship against Virginia. Let's take a look at this week's interesting lines:
Penn St. @ Virginia -10
Air Force @ Michigan -21
Miami @ Kansas State -7
Michigan State -23.5 @ CMU
USC -26.5 @ Syracuse
Purdue @ Notre Dame -14.5
Fresno State @ Oregon -34
Iowa State @ Iowa -4
Washington @ LSU -23.5
New Mexico @ Texas -37.5
Florida @ Texas A&M -2
Nebraska -5 @ UCLA
Oklahoma State -13.5 @ Arizona
Notes: Michigan opened yesterday at 21.5, just some adjustments, or is Vegas already losing confidence in Big Blue?... K-State stood tall against UM in Florida on a late drive last year, and looked stout in the running game last week...Michigan State hasn't had an easy time with Central, losing in '09, but the Chips looked really bad opening weekend...Anyone who saw USC last weekend knows to get that -26.5 now, because it's only going to rise...Can Notre Dame avoid a hangover from Ireland?...Fresno's passing game was on point last week, with Derek Carr completing at a 80 percent clip...Iowa State's offense is going to be a problem for Iowa, no two ways about it...UW's run game is not where it needs to be vs. LSU, gaining just north of 100 yards last week...If Texas loads up on the run, UNM will have to go to the air, and that's a problem for the Lobos, who managed just 70 passing yards last week...A&M starts its SEC slate without a week 1 tune up against La. Tech...Nebraska's Taylor Martinez set passing records last weekend, and now gets a shot at a UCLA defensive backfield that struggled at times against Rice last week...Oklahoma State covered a 62 pt. spread against Savannah State last week.
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