Kyle says...
Season record: 4-4
Last week: 3-1
Notre Dame @ Michigan State -6
The Spartans haven't surrendered one offensive touchdown yet this season. Last week they held Central Michigan to a 38 percent third down conversion percentage, just 72 rushing yards and 4.6 yards per pass in a effort that was even more dominant than their matchup against Boise State. Notre Dame's defense is impressive—forcing two turnovers out of Purdue last week and holding the Boilermaker offense to less than 300 total yards. Michigan State, though, has Le'Veon Bell, who is averaging more than 6 yards every time he touches the ball. Notre Dame has not yet been tested by a runner, or an offensive line, of Bell and Michigan State's caliber. The Spartans dig in for revenge and cover at home.
USC -8 @ Stanford
Chalk baby. SC gets back in-state after a puzzling game last week in New Jersey vs. Syracuse and lines up a strong but untested Stanford team in its sights. Stanford's passing attack, headed by QB Josh Nunes, has struggled at times in the first two games. He's been sacked and hurried a few times and is completing about 57 percent of his passes—passable numbers against the likes of San Jose State and Duke, but it won't fly against the Trojans, who are led by QB Matt Barkley and two terrific receivers—Marqise Lee and Robert Woods, both well over the 200 yard mark on the two-game long season. If SC can establish its running game looks against this inexperienced Cardinal will open up for Barkley and it's goodnight sweetheart.
BYU -3.5 @ Utah UNDER 46.5
The Holy War pits two different styles against one another—the pass happy Cougars are averaging 305 passing yards per game and Utah has been pretty effective defensively behind leading man DT Star Lotulelei. Shutting down BYU's passing game and forcing them to the rush—they're averaging just under 4 yards per carry as a team—will be key for the Utes. I'd look for BYU to start hot as in the last two games behind QB Riley Nelson (the Cougs average 22.5 points in the first half) then go into a more conservative mode. Utah's offense is a mess behind newly-minted quarterback Jon Hays had accuracy problems when he stepped in as an emergency last week. Take the under.
Florida +3 @ Tennessee
This pick might perplex some as Tennessee appears to be as loaded offensively as it's been since the Tee Martin days, but Florida is an absolute monster on defense. In the second half of last week's tight win over Texas A&M, Florida allowed the Aggies to cross the 50 a grand total of once and held them to less than 50 cumulative yards. A&M converted less than a quarter of its third downs against Florida. The Gators aren't any great shakes on offense, though, and QB Jeff Driskell is getting sacked at a rate of nearly 3 times per game. But, Tennessee has had trouble rushing the passer this season, and if Driskell can remain on his feet he'll set up the running game and Tennessee can kiss their day goodbye. Florida to cover.
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