Week 4: Midwest Monday or "Let's do it again"

By Kyle Magin
Remember the finish last year when Notre Dame and Michigan got together?

This bettor does. I was sitting in the casino parking lot just waiting for ND to cover so I could collect on the back end of a two-team parlay. Fuck you, Roy Roundtree. Onto this week.


 Kansas State @ Oklahoma -14 
K-State QB Collin Klein has gotten great protection, thrown accurately and most importantly run an effective option in coach Bill Snyder's offense. All three of those things must continue against Oklahoma Saturday in Norman for K-State to become relevant once again on the national stage. Klein isn't passing for much—with a rushing attack averaging more than 250 yards per game he hasn't been asked to—but when he does throw completions he's averaging more than 14 yards. Oklahoma QB Landry Jones hasn't been quite as effective but the OU defense under Mike Stoops sure has—surrendering just 8 first downs rushing in two games and zero rushing touchdowns. Worse yet, if things don't go well for Sooner opponents on first and second down, their chances of converting a third down drop below 20 percent. K-State's line will need to keep OU DT Jama McFarland out of the backfield for the Cats to have a shot.

 Michigan @ Notre Dame -5.5 
Can the luck of the Irish hold out? After three weeks of dominating defense, I'm guessing they can. While Notre Dame hasn't seen an offense with Michigan's dynamism yet, they have seen comparable or slightly better offensive lines, against which they've managed 11 sacks, 20 tackles for loss and given up an average of just 10 points per game. The key to beating Denard Robinson has been to force him to stay in the pocket and throw—he's a cumulative 54 percent on completions but gets progressively worse on second and third down, where all four of his interceptions have come this season. If Notre Dame's Manti Te'o and co can continue to shut down the run, the odds work in their favor in Michigan must go to the air for their survival. QB Everett Golson isn't much better than Robinson accuracy-wise, but he's got a much better rushing game to back him up.

 Missouri @ South Carolina -10 
South Carolina is doing business on defense, giving up a paltry 9.7 yards per game and holding opposing offenses to 1.6 rushing yards and a 25 percent conversion percentage on third down. The later you get into a game against the Gamecocks, the less likely you are to convert when down and distance isn't in your favor. Sophomore QB Dylan Thompson's emergence as starter after Connor Shaw's injury should be of grave concern, though—Thompson's accuracy is spotty at best and in limited action he's been sacked six times, in part due to an underachieving offensive line, and in part due to inexperience and an inability to get rid of the ball quickly. Don't think that hasn't been noticed by MU sackmaster DE Brad Madison, who has three already this season on a team that's garnered nine. If only Mizzou QB James Franklin could improve on his anemic passing numbers, Mizzou could have a shot at covering.

 UConn -1.5 @ Western Michigan
The Bronco is a one-trick pony this season—pass, pass and pass some more. UConn has been very effective at stopping the pass, and the run for that matter, holding opposing offenses to a little more than 10 points per game and 123 yards through the air. Where there's an opening to WMU is in QB Alex Carder's ability to complete passes—he's been doing it at a modest 62 percent rate, but that's on average 20 percent higher than any of UConn's opponents to date. When the Huskies give up a completion, the opposition averages 10 yards. Carder will have to if his running game continues to offer no support and UConn's rush defense continues holding opposing offenses to 1.2 yards per carry. UConn's offense is actually worse than the Broncos—they're at or below 100th in the nation in both passing and rushing yards—so don't expect a shootout.