Tuesday, October 2, 2012

Week 6: Two go in, one comes out

By Kyle Magin
Three games down south this weekend feature undefeated teams facing off against one another in a cage-match like scenario: Only one leaves with its record unblemished. Prepare accordingly.

Georgia @ South Carolina -2
Go ahead and open another tab and light up the Rocky theme song while you read this. I'll wait. Georgia goes into South Carolina at 5-0 and riding high after a shootout victory over Tennessee last week. The offense is on fire—QB Aaron Murray is making pretty good decisions with the ball and RBs Todd Gurley and Keith Marshall are blowing defenders away to the tune of 8 yards per carry. The defense, charitably, though, looks like shit. That's in stark contrast to SC, who has its own all-world running back in Marcus Lattimore and a defense that holds opposing offenses to less than 300 yards per game, 27 percent on third down conversions and 25 percent on red zone touchdowns. Simply put, it's hard to sustain drives against DL Ja'Daveon Clowney and Co. I think this game comes down to SC's ability to shut down a dangerous Georgia offense, because they'll likely have success against a team that gave up nearly 5 yards per rush last week.

West Virginia @ Texas -7
Sure, Texas has stars on its defense—Jackson Jeffcoat, Alex Okafor, Kenny Vaccaro—but as a team, the defense is at best suspect. That's not exactly where you want to be going against Mr. 20 TD HEISMAN WINNER HOPEFUL Geno Smith and his immensely talented receivers, Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey. Smith is currently the most efficient quarterback in college football with an 83.4 percent completion rate while piloting the offense with the highest total yardage, yardage per catch and passing touchdown total in the nation. But his defense is a joke, and UT has been nothing short of stellar on offense. QB David Ash is completing passes at a 77 percent rate and getting loads of support from his multi-faceted run game. We've said it here before and we'll say it again, teams utilizing their run game to win the time of possession put the game's math in their favor. Add in the slight home field advantage Texas gets and a few plays from its defensive stars and it could be a rude welcome to Austin for the Mountaineers.

LSU -3 @ Florida
In the past, LSU has been able to bully Florida with a superior rushing game. In this year's edition, though, the Gators come in with a run game and defense more than holding their own nationally—ranked 20th and 10th, respectively. The Tigers get the nod on offense, if only slightly, because Florida's pass game is still such a shambles right now. Zach Mettenberger, now a confirmed "Anchorman" fan—seriously, Google 'Zach Mettenberger Ron Burgundy'—hits for 13 yards per pass when he does complete them and has a solid run game to buy him time in the pocket. Florida's RB Mike Gillislee must seize the initiative and continue to gain close to 6 yards per carry to keep the Gators in business inside what's sure to be a raucous Swamp atmosphere.

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