Monday, November 7, 2011

Week 11: Who does No. 2 work for?

Welcome to college football's 11th week, which we'll nickname "the eliminator."
Oklahoma State took its place at No. 2 in the nation after Alabama fell to LSU Saturday. But, the Tide dropped to just third, meaning they'll be standing ready to cut back into the title picture. What will the pressure mean for OSU? Don't forget the best coast, which will host a HUGE matchup Saturday in the South Bay when Oregon visits undefeated Stanford. Let's get to the picks...

BIG 12
Texas -1 @ Missouri
Oklahoma State -17 @ Texas Tech
Baylor -20 @ Kansas
Texas A&M -4.5 @ Kansas State

PAC 12
Arizona -11 @ Colorado
Washington @ USC -12.5
Oregon State @ Cal -9.5
UCLA @ Utah -7
Oregon @ Stanford -4
Arizona State -13 @ Washington State

WAC
San Jose State @ Utah State OFF
Louisiana Tech -2.5 @ Ole Miss
Fresno State @ New Mexico State OFF
Idaho @ BYU -21
Hawaii @ Nevada -13

MWAC
Wyoming @ Air Force -14
TCU @ Boise State -15
SDSU -13.5 @ Colorado State
UNLV @ New Mexico

TCU @ Boise State -15
TCU may be riding high after four straight victories, but the Horned Frogs had better check their egos at the door when they head to the smurf turf. Against the two good QBs they've seen this year— SMU's Kyle Padron and Baylor's RGIII— the Horned Frogs gave up an average of 45 points. Even for a team that scores 41.6 points per game, that's not sustainable. Boise's Kellen Moore is easily the class of that group and will look downfield early and often against TCU. With a solid defense giving up just more than 12 points per game, look for Boise to force a lot of turnovers or incomplete passes from TCU as it will benefit from solid field position and plenty of time to rest as the Broncos' well balanced offense plays keep away. The Broncos cover and continue to piss in the BCS's oatmeal.

Oregon @ Stanford -4
The best matchup of the weekend features a conference's two best teams with national title implications on the line... stop me if you've heard this before. Unlike their counterparts in the SEC, however, Oregon's visit to Palo Alto will actually be worth watching. The boys from Silicon Valley haven't quite played the Ducks' schedule, but they've done nothing but win with a great run game taking pressure off Andrew Luck, allowing him to look downfield. He's ruthless there — his top two receivers are averaging more than 17 yards per catch — all while Stepfan Taylor and Tyler Gaffney control the line of scrimmage with more than 6 yards per carry. Oregon's rushing attack is even more impressive — the Ducks are fifth in the nation in total rushing at close to 300 yards per game. Oregon's had some problems against good pass defenses, though, and that's a strength for the Cardinal. If Stanford can corral Darron Thomas, they might be able to force Chip Kelly to overwork his running backs and tire them by the fourth quarter. On the flipside, those same backs could skew time of possession considerably in Oregon's favor, keeping the ball out of Andrew Luck's magic hands. I think Oregon beats the spread in a Stanford victory.

Washington @ USC -12.5
SC looks like a serious contender in gestation. Unfortunately, we know with oncoming scholly reductions, this pregnancy doesn't end well. That's why SC is getting its shots in now, when it can play a VERY competent role as spoiler. Washington, on the other hand, is a mystery. All the ingredients are there for a great offense, but Keith Price looked very human last week, throwing two interceptions, and the running game led by Chris Polk was nonexistent for the Huskies, who managed just 82 yards in a loss against Oregon. The defense in Seattle is rotten, and Matt Barkley should walk all over them. I like SC to cover at home.

Oklahoma State -17 @ Texas Tech
Last week in a squeaker of a victory over Kansas State, the Cowboys defense was terrible in third and fourth down situations, and gave up about 500 yards of total offense. Contrast that with the 502 passing yards 'Boys QB Brandon Weeden threw by himself, however, and the picture looks a little better. After beating Oklahoma two weeks ago, the Red Raiders have looked awful, as the 104th defense in the land continues to give up shitloads of points (46.5 per game after the win) and the once-feared offense cannot score. This is exactly what got Tommy Tuberville fired at Auburn — the man falls apart in the second half of the season. The Raiders continue to be shellshocked and OSU's defense comes back to try to prove its status as a title contender, while the offense continues as the best in college football. The Cowboys cover, and continue their march to Bedlam on Dec. 3.



No comments:

Post a Comment