Week 10: Sweet Home Picking

There's one game that matters to the sports media this week. Stay away from it. Way too much money is coming in on LSU-Alabama for the oddsmakers to take it lightly. I have a feeling it's a sucker's bet either way. You're warned.

SEC

Vanderbilt @ Florida -14

New Mexico St. @ Georgia -34.5

Ole Miss -1.5 @ Kentucky

Mid Tennessee @ Tennessee OFF

South Carolina @ Arkansas -5

Tennessee Martin @ Miss. St. OFF

LSU @ Alabama -4.5

PAC12

USC -22 @ Colorado

Stanford -21.5 @ Oregon St.

Washington St. @ Cal -10

Utah @ Arizona -3.5

Arizona St. -9 @ UCLA

Oregon -16.5 @ Washington

BIG12

Texas Tech @ Texas -14.5

Kansas @ Iowa St. -14

Texas A&M @ Oklahoma -14

Missouri @ Baylor -2.5

Kansas State @ Oklahoma State -14

WAC

Idaho @ San Jose State -9

Louisiana Tech @ Fresno State -3.5

Utah State @ Hawaii -3.5

MWAC

Army @ Air Force OFF

TCU -19 @ Wyoming

New Mexico @ San Diego State -35

Boise State -42 @ UNLV

LSU @ Alabama -4.5

Honestly, did you predict this line? I'm not sure anybody did beyond correctly guessing it, blindly. Don't bet this game. Again, Vegas doesn't usually really screw something up if a lot of money is coming in on it. It's a suckers bet. But, if I was a gambling man, I'd STILL stay away from it. If I was a lunatic, though, these teams are evenly matched in a variety of ways. Both shut down offenses scoring 40 + ppg coming into their contests: Bama's bested Florida and Arkansas, while LSU clobbered Florida, Oregon and the defending champs in Auburn. I give Saban and his boys the slight edge because they are home and because they have a stable passing game. By juggling QBs, Les Miles is asking for trouble. Alabama by a hair in the contest, but LSU beats this spread.

Oregon -16.5 @ Washington

It'll be an exciting showdown in the Northwest on Saturday. Oregon is going to score at will on Washington's defense, just like Stanford did when it humbled the Dogs 65-21. Don't expect the Huskies to get caught napping, though. The game is in Seattle, U-Dub got back on the saddle last week against Arizona, and Keith Price is dialing PAC 12 defenses in. Oregon has had difficulties against top-notch offenses this season, and Washington is every bit as good of an offense as OU will see outside of LSU and Stanford this season. Look for the Huskies to beat the spread.

Kansas State @ Oklahoma State -21

Oklahoma gave the nation the blueprint on stopping K-State's option attack last week. It also showed the world how to react when the option stops working: Close in on Cats QB Collin Klein. The kid just doesn't look downfield — his long pass was 11 yards last week. Watch Okie Lite hammer on Klein again while Brandon Weeden and the 'Boys offense continues to pummel defensive backfields. Justin Blackmon has two-multi TD games in his last four, and I could certainly see him notching another few this week based off of time of possession and chances alone. The Cowboys cover.

Utah State @ Hawaii -3.5

The Aggies haven't won a road game this season, why would they start now? After an inspired performance against a very inexperienced Auburn Tigers squad early this year, State has tanked, giving uneven performances on offense as the passing game can't support a horrid run effort, and decidedly mediocre tries on defense. Hawaii is 4-1 in it's last five and scoring points at will. Hawaii covers in the late matchup. This will be a good place to win back the cash you pissed away on the Alabama game, as it kicks at midnight EST.