Week 5: Big 12 hosts the showdown in Arlington, Boise looks for revenge on the SmurfTurf

Good morning Nitty Griddy readers and welcome to Week 5 in the Big 12, Pac 12, WAC, MWAC and Independents. Sorry for the lack of a Tuesday post- half of our blogging contingent is gearing up for a big move to Nevada, where life is a little more friendly to a blog like this. Onto the picks!

BIG12
Texas A&M -3 vs. Arkansas
Texas -9.5 @ Iowa St.
Baylor -4 @ Kansas State
Texas Tech -7 @ Kansas
Ball St. @ Oklahoma -37.5

PAC12
Arizona @ USC -14
Wash. St. @ Colorado -3
Wash. @ Utah -7.5
OSU @ Arizona State -18
UCLA @ Stanford -20.5

WAC
Utah St. @ BYU -8
Nevada @ Boise St. -27.5
Idaho @ UVA -17
San Jose State @ Colo. St. -3
Hawaii @ La. Tech. -3.5
NMSU -2.5 @ New Mexico
Ole Miss @ Fresno State -3.5

MWAC
Air Force @ Navy -3
SMU @ TCU -11.5

Independents
Notre Dame -13 @ Purdue

Kyle says...

Texas A&M -3 vs. Arkansas (Neutral site: Arlington, Texas)
The Aggies and Hogs are both smarting from poor play in losses that went incredibly badly for the future SEC West foes. Arkansas looked hapless in Tuscaloosa against a very solid Alabama squad, while A&M's nightmare of a loss to Oklahoma State was a study in how very different two halves can be. Look for Ryan Tannehill to pick on Arkansas' secondary, which gave up a lot in the intermediate passing game last week against the Tide. The Aggies defense gets back to the top-flight performance they showed in the first half last week, and A&M covers.

Texas -9.5 @ Iowa St.
Texas is a superpower still trying to find its groove. Iowa State is an exciting young upstart led by a transfer quarterback in Steele Jantz (from Nevada Union High School in Grass Valley, Calif.) who has been one of the Big 12's most exciting athletes this season. Watch for the Horns balanced rushing game and defense to come out big and help to avenge last season's loss in Austin. The Cyclones haven't been able to muster much a rushing game (at 145.3 ypg, they're among the worst in the conference) and will have a hard time keeping Texas off the field. I'm picking UT to cover, but barely. Expect some of that Cyclone magic to keep this game around two scores.

Arizona @ USC -14
I would have picked this game a lot differently a month ago, before the evidence of a brutal schedule smacked Arizona in the face. The Cats look to be a team in disarray, losing their last four by a combined 130 points. QB Nick Foles just does not have the pieces around him to be successful, and the defense has looked horrid against three consecutive top-10 foes. USC has looked wildly inconsistent, and downright bad in a loss last week at Arizona State. Look for USC QB Matt Barkley to cut down on his turnovers and Marc Tyler to get a few more carries in a Trojans win, but I don't like them with the points. Arizona beats the spread.

Washington @ Utah -7.5
U-Dub takes its high-flying scoring attack, led by QB Kevin Price, who hung three TDs on Cal in a win last week, into Rice Eccles Stadium in Utah to face a Utes team that has been relatively stingy on defense. Utah handled BYU in a Week 3 54-10 romp, and is 15th in the nation in yards allowed. For all their offensive charm, the Huskies have had a tough time of it in the defensive backfield this year, and that's where Utah will do its damage. Look for the Utes to cover.

Nevada @ Boise State -27.5
WTF is The Nitty Griddy doing previewing this game, you might ask? The answer is that this is all about context. Last year the Wolfpack, led by senior QB Colin Kaepernick, ripped Boise's heart out of its fancy Nike jersey in a barn-burner in Reno. Nevada put a stop to Boise's national title hopes in the program's biggest-ever win. Things will turn out differently this season. Nevada, despite a still-effective rushing game, is a shell of itself in the passing game, averaging less than 200 yards and about a touchdown in its first three games. Boise, led by QB Kellen Moore, will pick apart the Pack and the Broncos' defense will give UNR fits all day. This game is going to be about revenge and Boise's quest to win and wait for Oklahoma, LSU or Alabama to slip up on their way to the BCS title game. Look for an ugly score on the Smurf Turf, with Boise covering.