Whew, what a first game. South Carolina stumbled, Vandy threatened late but the Cocks held on and TNG went 0-1 on the season. BYU is absolutely throttling Washington State (did anyone see Leach's squad playing this poorly!?). We're looking to turn our record around starting with tonight's big game, Boise State vs. Michigan State in East Lansing. Without further adieu, onto the picks.
Kyle says...
Boise State @ Michigan St. -6.5
Boise brings a very young but talented squad into East Lansing, but put an emphasis on their youth... only 9 starters come back from last year's Boise team, not including star QB Kellen Moore. MSU is similarly inexperienced at QB and WR, but the Spartans bring back much of the 6th best defense in the nation from last year and only look to get better. A really good MSU running game—RB Le'Veon Bell averaged more than 5 yards per carry in 2011—makes the difference in this game, and MSU covers easily.
Navy vs. Notre Dame -15 (Dublin, Ireland)
The Irish FINALLY have a legit defense—led by two-time All American Manti Te'o, who averaged a little more than 1 tackle for for loss last season and an improving D-line—but come in young and thin on offense, having lost top RB Jonas Gray to graduation and #2 RB Cierre Wood to suspension. Junior TE Tyler Eiffert is a star... but we know very little about new QB Everett Golson aside from the fact that he is mobile. Navy is experienced on defense, especially in the backfield, where two seniors hold down a unit that should improve with a better pass rush this year. The offense, though, is tremendously inexperienced up front, returning just two starters with 34 starts between them. That'll be a problem against this Irish D, and Navy will not cover.
Michigan +14 vs. Alabama
I fully overlooked my hatred for Big Blue in making this pick. The spread has been growing all week, but I think that was about more of a cost-saving measure for the sports books than anything UM or Bama was doing. Michigan has a solid if inexperienced receiving corps and question marks at running back. The offensive line is certainly a little weaker without C David Molk. Alabama gets younger the farther you get from the line of scrimmage on defense. But, the duo of QB Aj McCarron and RB Eric Lacy will get loads of time and space to work with behind the best offensive line in the country. UM QB Denard Robinson is the x-factor here, though, and Alabama has never seen a QB with his mobility. Look for shoelace to keep Michigan closer than two touchdowns in a loss.
Nevada vs. Cal -11.5
Cal QB Zach Maynard improved as much as anyone in the country in the second half of last season—upping his completion percentage and leading Cal to put up scores of 30, 23, 28 and 47 points in their last four games. He goes to work with half-brother WR Keenan Allen, an all Pac 12 performer last season. Nevada's front seven just don't have the experience or strength to get a good push against the Cal offensive line, and while the Bears' defense is no fearful thing, Maynard has far more to work with than rapidly improving UNR QB Cody Fajardo. Cal covers.
Kyle is 0-0 on the season
Big Tex says...
Boise State @ Michigan State -6.5
It is going to be tough for both teams to replicate the successes they both had last year, because both teams will be adjusting to key departures. Michigan State lost Kirk Cousins, winningest QB in school history, along with several wide receivers. Boise State lost Kellen Moore, who is the biggest difference for the Broncos from last year. In addition, the Broncos' four starting linemen from last season departed, along with their top three linebackers. Boise State has won all 6 season openers under Petersen, but look for that to change in East Lansing Friday night. In addition, Boise State is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games. The Spartans win by at least points.
Wyoming +31.5 @ Texas
First off, I have to agree with Kyle's statement "As will be the case against 75 percent of their foes this season, only Texas can stop itself." After switching between QBs throughout the season last year, the Horns named David Ash their starter. I'm not yet convinced, even though I like Ash better than McCoy, because they still seem to be keeping open the possibility of McCoy sharing time. UT has won all 4 meetings with Wyoming by an average margin of victory of 29 points. Expect them to have one of the best defenses in the country with Manny Diaz at the helm along with an improving running game. Texas is 7-15-1 ATS in its last 23 games at home and struggled the last 2 years in opening games against Rice, so I like the Cowboys at +31.5.
First off, I have to agree with Kyle's statement "As will be the case against 75 percent of their foes this season, only Texas can stop itself." After switching between QBs throughout the season last year, the Horns named David Ash their starter. I'm not yet convinced, even though I like Ash better than McCoy, because they still seem to be keeping open the possibility of McCoy sharing time. UT has won all 4 meetings with Wyoming by an average margin of victory of 29 points. Expect them to have one of the best defenses in the country with Manny Diaz at the helm along with an improving running game. Texas is 7-15-1 ATS in its last 23 games at home and struggled the last 2 years in opening games against Rice, so I like the Cowboys at +31.5.
OU -31.5 @ UTEP
OU did not have the usual dominant season last year, especially with their D. Bob Stoops' brother, Mike, is back to rejuvenate the defense. Landry Jones is back for revenge and a chance at the BCS National Championship. OU has won its last eight regular season non-conference games by an average of 18 points. Even with this stat, I believe that OU is hungry to prove themselves and run up the score to win by at least 32 points.
Big Tex is 0-1 on the season.
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