Tuesday, October 11, 2011

Week 7: Sprinting into the second half of the season with the Pac 12, Big 12, SEC, WAC and MWC

Welcome to Week 7 Nitty Griddy Nation. We're dubbing this week Ron Burgundy Week at TNG, because we're going to find out who's the balls. We've got big battles in a couple of leagues that should go a long way in telling how this year will shape up. On to the picks!

Big 12
Oklahoma St. -7.5 @ Texas
Baylor @ Texas A & M -9.5
Iowa St. @ Mizzou -15.5
Kansas St. @ Texas Tech -3
Oklahoma -33.5 @ Kansas

Pac 12
USC -3 @ Cal
Utah @ Pitt -7
Colorado @ Washington -14.5
BYU @ Oregon St. -1.5
Stanford -21 @ Washington St.
Arizona State @ Oregon -16

SEC
S. Carolina -3 @ Miss. St.
LSU -16 @ Tennessee
Alabama -25 @ Ole Miss
Florida -1.5 @ Auburn
Georgia -11 @ Vanderbilt

MWC
SDSU @ Air Force -6
UNLV @ Wyoming -11
New Mexico @ Nevada -29.5
Boise St. -32 @ Colorado St.

WAC
Hawaii -6.5 @ San Jose St.
Idaho @ NMSU -1.5
Utah St. -3.5 @ Fresno St.

Kyle says...

Oklahoma St. -7.5 @ Texas
Things are now looking like they might get worse before they get better in Austin. The Horns had a problem getting anything going through the air to anyone not named Shipley last week, and while OK Lite's defense is a lot softer than Oklahoma's (The Pokes give up 12 more ppg than OU), UT showed almost no ground game to keep a D honest. Fozzy Whittacker averaged more than 7 yards per carry last week but inexplicably got only a handful of rushes. Compare that against the OSU offense, which, led by Brandon Weeden (automatic points for being older than me), is leading the nation in scoring. Weeden has 15 touchdowns himself, better than all of Texas' QBs combined. It'll be a good night to hit Sixth Street early, as OSU comes into ATX and covers.

USC -3 @ Cal
Who do you hate more, West Coast residents? USC kids in those damned Harry Potter scarves and Knockaround shades, or Berkeley trustafarians in Birks shitting out of trees? A lot of A-holes are getting together in San Francisco Thursday night. SC QB Matt Barkley is starting to look downright dominant, directing a stable of standout wideouts and the running game, which includes a healthy Marc Tyler, to 38-plus points in their last three outings. Cal's defense is charitably described as terrible against real competition, and QB Zach Maynard has looked lost in consecutive defeats at the hands a competent defense in Oregon and a "defense" in the loosest sense of the word in Washington. Still, SC stumbled in its only road game so far at Arizona State, so this one doesn't get too wild, but the Trojans cover.

BYU @ Oregon St. -1.5
This game is going to be a pillow fight, but BYU is on a tear and Oregon St. got a lucky one in on Arizona last week. Cougars beat the spread on the strength of their offense, which is slowly catching fire behind QB Jake Heaps.

LSU -16 @ Tennessee
The Vols blew their chance at a home win last week in an ugly loss to a rickety Georgia squad. The Bulldogs exposed a weak rushing attack for UT—ranked 114th in the nation—and teams can freely drop back 7 or even 8 on QB Tyler Bray and his talented receiving corps. Contrast that with the all-everything Bayou Bengals, who have shut down two of the most prolific passing games in the country going into their games with LSU—Oregon and Florida—and it's going to be a long day on Rocky Top Saturday. LSU covers.

Florida -1.5 @ Auburn
Was I the only person who looked at this line and went "huh?" True enough, Auburn is having a hell of a time trying to pass the ball with first year QB Barrett Trotter, but RB Michael Dyer is producing at a high level and Florida hasn't stopped the run in three weeks now. Without regular starting QB John Brantley, the Gators' passing attack has also gone into the toilet, putting up less than 100 yards last week against LSU in the Bayou. Auburn finds a way to keep the Florida D on the field for just long enough, and the Tigers beat the spread.


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