Hey everybody, welcome back to The Nitty Griddy, where we're conducting an investigation into Nevin Shapiro's affiliation with this blog. Everyone should be eligible for week 1.
Onto the picks!
BIG 12
TCU-6 at Baylor: TCU curb-stomped the Bears in last year's season opener, running out to a 35-3 lead. Without Andy Dalton, don't look for quite as much of a throttling, but sophomore Casey Pachall is backed up by a potent rushing attack with junior RB Ed Wesley. Baylor is inexperienced in the second and third levels of the defense and could be exposed. Junior QB Robert Griffin defines fast and could keep this close in the first half with his legs, but your money's safe on the Frogs.
Texas A&M -15.5 vs. SMU: One wants into the Big 12, one wants out. Look for A&M to come out gunning with senior QB Ryan Tannehill and his experienced WR duo of Ryan Swope and Jeff Fuller. The Pony Express comes back with 3-year starter QB Kyle Padron holding the reigns on a top-notch, vintage June Jones offense. SMU's D allowed just 145 ypg in 2010 and returns one of the CUSA's best D-lines. Look for the 'Stangs to keep this one closer than Vegas is letting on.
PAC12
ORE-1 at LSU (Arlington): LSU QB Jordan Jefferson, you may have heard, kicks people in the face at a bar called 'Shady's.' That's why experienced sideline-jockey Jarrett Lee gets the nod in the best matchup of the week. Lee gets a minor break with Oregon all-world CB Cliff Harris suspended for this game, but that won't count for much. Look for the Ducks' speedy duo of QB Darron Thomas and RB LaMichael James to keep LSU's new secondary on its heels and vulnerable to a deep bomb. Fear the Duck.
Houston -3 vs. UCLA: The Bruins handed Cougars QB Case Keenum a season-ending injury in 2010. Look for him to exact revenge this year, as six-year QBs are rare in college and he is the most experienced signal-caller in the sport. UCLA returns an experienced lineup, but under Neuheisel are 4-11 as road dogs. H-Town covers, comfortably.
MWAC
Boise St. -3.5 at Georgia (Atlanta): This is quietly the next-best matchup of the weekend after Oregon-LSU. QB Kellen Moore leads the Broncos, who don't lose their openers (2009 W vs. Oregon, 2010 W vs. Virginia Tech) into the game with a slightly new-look offens after the departures of WRs Austin Pettis and Titus Young. It may make for a slightly disjointed attack, but nobody can blow a big game like the Bulldogs, so I wouldn't worry too much. Georgia QB Aaron Murray had a big time freshman season but will probably regress this year, certainly right out of the gate, with a (mostly) brand-new offense. It won't be enough to keep a good Georgia D, led by LB Justin Houston, off the field. BSU notches another win ahead of a mostly obscure regular season schedule.
WAC
Fresno +9.5 at Cal (San Francisco): The Bears come in with QB Zach Maynard, a Buffalo transfer and relatively unproven commodity pushing Jeff Tedford's offense. Tedford, who is on the hot seat this year, hasn't been settled at the QB position since Aaron Rogers left, but Maynard looks to have a solid group of contributors at the skill positions. The Bulldogs return stud DT Logan Harrell and a solid front seven, which should make for interesting football if they can keep the Bears from airing it out. Still, Cal should outpace FSU's young offense comfortably in the first regular season game at the San Francisco Giants' AT&T park.
Notre Dame -10 vs. U.S.F: As always, the Irish are trotting out some legit firepower on offense, in WR Michael "drinky" Floyd and Sophomore RB Cierre Wood. Both should stabilize Qb Dayne Crist, who has big-time ability but can play a little inconsistently. This year, though, the Irish O is backed by its D, led by Junior LB Manti Te'O, who has a nose for the ball and a young but talented group meshing around him. The Bulls are on the young side, and while they have a strong defense led by DE Julius Forte, it's going to be tough for Junior QB B.J. Daniels to keep up with the Irish attack.
Until tomorrow.
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