Friday, September 28, 2012

Week 5: More picks!

By Kyle Magin

Again, you just want the picks, let's get to it.

Kyle says...

Season Record: 9-7
Last Week: 3-1

UCLA -20 @ Colorado
UCLA covers. 

Texas -2.5 @ Oklahoma State
Texas covers. 

Georgia @ Tennessee +14
Tennessee to cover. 

Wisconsin @ Nebraska -11.5
Nebraska to cover.

Week 5: The picks are in!

Shortened version again this week, but the picks are what you really want any way. Here we go...

Marcus says...

Season Record: 7-9
Last Week: 1-3

Indiana @ Northwestern -11

Take the Wildcats to cover in Evanston.

Central Michigan @ Northern Illinois -10

The Chips played well at Iowa last week, but the letdown is coming in DeKalb. Take the Huskies to cover.

Ohio State +2.5 @ Michigan State

Take the Buckeyes and the points.

Toledo @ Western Michigan -1.5

Take the Broncos to cover under the lights at Waldo.

Thursday, September 27, 2012

Week 5: Get ya Horns up

By Kyle Magin
Let's go to Mobilehoma, on purpose. It's OK, the locals are out fisting for fish. Don't ask. We'll follow the Longhorns up to the land of sad Indians and T. Boone Pickens. For some reason America's asshole Oklahoma produces some pretty good college football quarterbacks. Like the 2011 edition of Landry Jones and Brandon Weeden. And the 2012 edition of Landry Jones and Wes Lunt. Wait, lome again? (see what I did there?)

Central Plains REPRESENT!

Texas -2.5 @ Oklahoma State
The Longhorns go into Stillwater looking to avenge three straight losses to the Pokes, who've had their number lately. This isn't the 2010 (Thank God) or the 2011 edition of the Horns, though. The defensive line is the fiercest in the nation, and ends Alex Okafor and Jackson Jeffcoat are letting exactly nothing past them. QB David Ash is playing above everyone's expectations, completing 76-plus percent of his passes for nearly 13 yards per hookup. There's some question about whether or not OSU can make Ash uncomfortable in the pocket given the fact his second leading rusher—Joe Bergeron—is likely out for the game. Likely, all is not well on the UT defense, where linebacker Jordan Hicks is likely out and the defensive secondary has given up a glut of huge plays already. I'll guarantee Mike Gundy is going after  UT DB Carring Byndom. But, I'm not sure he has the tools to do it. Lunt and J.W. Walsh have looked pretty pedestrian after a big opening win over BCS punching bag Savannah State and are coughing the ball up often. Texas is +6 in turnovers, and if they can win that battle Saturday, it'll be a long night for the Cowboys.

Virginia Tech -6.5 @ Cincinnati 
Blacksburg plays host to two teams who have designs on conference titles late in the nonconference season. The undefeated Bearcats looked great against a then-sorry looking Pittsburgh team in their opener before coasting against Delaware. Not much can be gleaned from Cincy yet except that QB Munchie Legaux has one of the cooler names in college football. He's got accuracy problems and is a string bean, but does himself favors by overthrowing the defense when he's off and scrabling well out of the pocket when pressure is closing in. They'll need a big game from him Saturday if he's going to hold off a strong Tech defense. The 3-1 Hokies lost to Pittsburg, the common opponent, but it was a much different Panthers team than when Cincy saw them. Hokies QB Logan Thomas has been miserable this season, completing just a hair over half of his passes and taking eight sacks against some subpar competition. If Cincy can mount any sort of rush, it could tilt the time of possession in the Bearcats favor, giving them more possessions to work with and greater chance of putting more points on the board. Math!

Toledo @ Western Michigan -1.5
Saddle up Waldo, the Rockets are coming. Will Toledo expose the Broncos' one-dimensional offense and drop extra defenders into coverage, forcing WMU to win by rushing the ball, something they've proven they can't do? Even with the addition of former MSU G John Deyo, WMU just cannot get a push running the ball, and Toledo does have a time of possession advantage on opponents this season. That said, Toledo can't run the ball any better, and while QB Terrance Owens is surely WMU QB Alex Carder's superior when it comes to completions and yards per completion, Carder wins out when it counts, leading his team more effectively in the red zone (where the Bronco score 68 percent of the time to the Rockets' 50 percent) and per-game passing yardage. Neither defense has been spectacular, but I'd give the slight edge to Toledo.



Wednesday, September 26, 2012

Week 5: Hello Seattle

By Kyle Magin

Tomorrow, for the second time in a week, the eyes of the American football world turn upon Seattle. The Emerald City's beloved Huskies welcome Stanford's potent defense and running game to CenturyLink Field. I was super psyched about this game and wanted to post for you all a great song about Seattle, a city I've come to love since moving out west, then I found this:

Now I want to wear flannel and bang my head against a wall while listening to grunge.

Stanford -6.5 @ Washington
U-Dub comes into this game with major question marks, and Stanford comes in looking like a defensive juggernaut. Last we saw the Huskies, LSU pancaked them, laying 41 on the dogs and holding the offense to just three rushing first downs and six passing first downs, and eight of the Dogs' 12 drives ended in punts. Since then, they've managed to right the ship slightly with a win over Portland State, improving to 2-1 on the season. Stanford is on a roll at 3-0 and last we saw them, they dethroned the #3 USC Trojans by blanking the Barkley-led boys for the last three quarters of the game. Two USC drives advanced past five snaps, with most ending in three & outs. Opponents convert less than 25 percent of the time on third down against the Cardinal and score touchdowns in the red zone just 44 percent of the time. Stanford Free Safety Ed Reynolds is the best center fielder in football, defending or breaking up 7 passes and intercepting three more. His matchup against Husky QB Keith Price will be one of the more interesting matchups of the night, as Price's passes go for about 10 yards per reception. If he can get a little support from an anemic rush game, he might find space underneath against the Stanford corners and linebackers, and just maybe find something deep. Stanford QB Josh Nunes has some accuracy problems, but goes 12-plus yards when he does complete.

Hawaii @ BYU -27.5
BYU, I've come to find out, is the quintessential button mashing knob you used to hate playing dorm room NCAA football against on that PS2 you spilled the beer on. They pass without consciousness, completing just 57 percent of their throws, but connecting with wideouts for 11.4 yards per grab, though. This is not good for Hawaii, who gives up about 12.6 yards per catch with a weak, young secondary. BYU, though, can go very bad, like QB Riley Nelson did against Boise State last week, leading the Cougs to a whopping 6 points. Hawaii can make up ground with its fairly effective run game and awesome ability to score in the red zone—it happens 91 percent of the time. Head Coach Norm Chow's gameplans are a bitch to deal with, even for a solid defense like BYU's. The Cougs have a solid, solid group of experienced linebackers, though, and Hawaii has very little in terms of receiving, meaning we'll see BYU stack the box and force Hawaii to beat it over the top.

Oregon -30.5 @ Washington State (Seattle)
UO's defense is getting nothing but better, and that's bad news for Wazzou, already losing the time of possession battle by an average of 6 minutes per game. You don't play so much for home runs against the Ducks D as you play for time of possession. It sounds simple, but keeping the ball out of Chip Kelly's offense's hands is the best way to keep things close. With Wazzou giving up third downs at a 49 percent clip, expect to see Ducks QB Marcus Mariota a lot Saturday, which will translate to a lot of points.

Tuesday, September 25, 2012

Week 5: Bring out your dead.

By Kyle Magin

On Saturday John L. Smith and his Razorbacks head to College Station for their next stop in a season of ass-whoopings. I wonder if they don't feel like this already:

"I'm not dead yet!"
The SEC's most intriguing matchup just might be the Tennessee Volunteers going up against a confident, improving team of Georgia Bulldogs. We'll take a look at 'Bama just cause.

Arkansas @ Texas A&M -14
Whoa-ho-ho, bring your Serta pillows, because this is going to be one hell of a featherweight battle. In this corner, the Arkansas Razorbacks, proud owners of a 1-3 record and a third down conversion percentage of 28 percent! And in the other red corner, with a record of 2-1 with wins against nobody, the Texas A&M Aggies!

"Just fucking ring the bell, you pansy"—Joseph "Blue" Pulaski

Actually, A&M, while playing against inferior opponents, is actually putting together a competent-looking stat line. D-lineman Damontre Moore, with six sacks and eight tackles for loss is wreaking havoc in opposing backfields and is just the kind of player that could force fumbles and injuries of Arkansas backs who are getting exactly no protection from the Hogs offensive line. If the defense can keep the Hogs quiet in the first half its very balanced offense—passing and rushing plays are split nearly 50/50 and both strategies have been effective in the red zone, where the Aggies score at a 91 percent pace—will march on past Arkansas to its first SEC victory.

Tennessee @ Georgia -13
Tennessee heads down Between the Hedges to take on an absolute wrecking ball of a Georgia rushing attack (and pretty good passing attack, too.) The Dawgs' running backs are gaining about six yards per rush and the receivers are pulling in Aaron Murray bombs, averaging 16.2 yards per catch. The real star, though, is linebacker Jarvis Jones, who has tackled or sacked opposing offenses for a total loss of 88 yards. On his own. Add in interception yardage, and Jones has earned the Dawgs about 100 total yards. Tennessee isn't getting much help from its 59th-ranked rushing game, which could put an unreasonable amount of pressure on QB Tyler Bray, who is having a fantastic season but struggled against Florida, the best defense the Vols saw before this weekend's matchup. This is also the 3-1 Vols' first road game, which could spell trouble.

Mississippi @ Alabama -31
Ole Miss will probably get steamrolled.

Monday, September 24, 2012

Midwest Monday: Look who's back in town again

By Kyle Magin

Gameday is coming back to East Lansing Saturday as Ohio State and Michigan State scrap in Spartan Stadium. Let's celebrate:

Man I still think them cats'll play.

Here's the thing, there are some really compelling matchups this week. It's sneaky good. You have the aforementioned B1G opener, The 'Nati and Va. Tech getting together in the nation's capital, the Vols heading in between the hedges and the Horns headed up to Stillwater. Let's get to the games amongst THEY WHO EAT MEAT AND POTATOES.

Ohio State @ Michigan State -3
Both teams come into this game with foul-smelling passing games. The difference is OSU still finds a way to score points—nearly 38 of them per game, as opposed to the Spartans measly 21. OSU's done it against a decidedly easier slate, but still, 4-0 speaks for itself. Last we saw the struggling Spartans, QB Andrew Maxwell's passing game was getting slapped upside the head by Eastern Michigan. They're completing just 57 percent of passes and can't get opposing defenses off Le'Veon Bell's back. They'll have to learn to capitalize through the air in a hurry because the Bucks are vulnerable there—opponents have gained 42 passing first downs against this defense and make up a majority of their offense vs. OSU through the air. IF MSU can continue to play its smothering brand of defense and DE William Gholston is asked to contain and then attack OSU QB Braxton Miller, this could make last year's 10-7 MSU win in the Shoe look like a shootout.

Wisconsin @ Nebraska -13
Just a few weeks ago this line would have seemed outrageous. But now, Wisconsin (3-1) looks lost offensively and are truly missing two graduated first time all-B1G defensive backs on the other side of the ball. The Badger offensive line is getting no push for RB Montee Ball and Co., averaging just 3.1 yards per carry and converting less than a third of third down attempts. The passing game is mired in mediocrity behind new QB Danny O'Brien, and the defense is giving up 245 passing yards per game. Throw enough against the Badgers and something will open up downfield. Nebraska, thankfully for the folks in Madison, still aren't throwing a ton—the Huskers are 66th in the nation in passing yardage, though QB Taylor Martinez has been completing a fairly efficient 70.7 percent of his throws. He's backed up by an incredibly solid run game led by Ameer Abdullah, averaging more than 6 yards per carry. If he can get to the second level on Wisconsin's defense often enough, look for things to open up deep for Martinez.

Minnesota @ Iowa -7
Iowa is a piddly-shit program who may or may not have lost this blogger money in a BLOWOUT LOSS to CENTRAL MICHIGAN last Saturday at Kinnick Stadium. I won't get into much more than a few stats on the 2-2 Hawkeyes—they converted only 30 percent of third downs vs. a MAC defense last week and got beaten 36-23 minutes in time of possession. Playing keep away is an effective strategy vs. these "Forrest's IQ is below this line, Mrs. Gump" Iowa schoolyard defenders. A questionable D-line just isn't getting a push and the defensive backs are continuing last year's tradition of sucking ass. Minnesota, on the other hand, has beaten four solid if not spectacular opponents behind a surprisingly strong D-line, led by D.L. Wilhite and his astounding 4.5 sacks and 5.5 tackles for loss on the young season. Sophomore QB Max Shortell has been an effective shepherd for a middling offense, but if they keep getting stellar defensive help, I like this line as much as any you'll see all week.

Friday, September 21, 2012

Week 4: The Picks are in!

2/3rds of TNG pickers are running in a Tough Mudder tomorrow, so this is going to be a light post. Here ya go.


Marcus says...
Season Record: 6-6
Last week: 3-1

Kansas +9 @ Northern Illinois
Kansas to cover. 

Louisiana Tech @ Illinois -2.5
Illini to cover.

UTEP @ Wisconsin -18
Wisconsin to cover.

Michigan +5.5 @ Notre Dame
Michigan to cover.

Big Tex says...
Season Record: 4-4
Last Week: Idle



  • Arizona @ Oregon -21.5; Wildcats are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings. Also, the underdog is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings. 
  • Kansas State @ Oklahoma -14; Oklahoma is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games. Road team is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings. Wildcats are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Oklahoma. 
  • Louisville @ FIU -13.5; 

  • Kyle says...
    Season Record: 6-6
    Last Week: 2-2

    Vanderbilt @ Georgia -16
    Georgia to cover. 

    LSU -20.5 @ Auburn
    LSU to cover. 

    Michigan @ Notre Dame -5.5
    Notre Dame to cover. 

    Arizona @ Oregon -21.5
    Oregon to cover.