By Kyle Magin
It's an evil time in the future, when no ranked teams are playing one another and all manner of angst and nastiness are prevalent in college football. It's this upcoming Saturday.
We do get some interesting cross-coastal matchups, though, and a few teams who already need to make a statement or get ready for basketball season. Let's look at a few:
USC -26 @ Syracuse
What's there to say about USC after they drubbed Hawaii last week? Matt Barkley looks like one of the best QBs in the nation and Marqise Lee appears to be a very dangerous receiver. Syracuse will need to muster a more impressive rushing game than they did in an opening loss to Northwestern, when they managed just 81. If they get into a shootout with USC and can't even the time of posession, they have no hope.
New Mexico @ Texas -38
Texas' D struggled at times in an opening 38-17 victory over Wyoming. The offense, behind David Ash, looked solid if not spectacular, but the defense lapsed at time in ways that show the Horns could be burnt by a good team. Thankfully for the Horns, New Mexico does not pass the ball and are not a good team. If Texas loads up the box to stuff the triple option, the Lobos do not have the tools to pass over them.
Penn State @ Virginia -9.5
Penn State visits Virginia for the next act in its season–long horror story. Matt McGloin made it clear last week against Ohio that he cannot make up for a rushing game gained him just about 100 yards, struggling to complete balls late and throwing a pick. If Virginia can again stop the Lions rushing attack, they'll win the time of posession easily and it'll be on McGloin to carry PSU's offense, a thought that makes folks in State College sick.
Thursday, September 6, 2012
Wednesday, September 5, 2012
Week 2: Way out West Wednesday
By Kyle Magin
Then all at once the trouble started (sharted?)
I'd say you've had enough! But you haven't, because it's only Wednesday, and we've still got the Wild, Wild West to cover. While the upcoming slate of games this week is pretty weak, overall, there are a few compelling matchups on the far side of the Mississippi. Let's get to it.
Nebraska -5.5 @ UCLA
The Cornhuskers head into the City of Angels after a historic Saturday that saw QB Taylor Martinez annihilate Southern Miss with 354 passing yards, completing 76 percent of his throws. Martinez got spectacular protection from his line, and that's bad news for a UCLA defense that had a problem giving up some long receptions to the likes of Rice's RB Sam McGuffie last week. Nebraska struggled against the run, though, giving up 180-plus yards against an inferior opponent in Southern. That's a part of the game where the Bruins excel—freshman QB Brett Hundley busted a 72–yard gain on the first play from scrimmage last week and the team tallied 300-plus rushing yards. The wildcard here is Nebraska's running game—it looked fine last week after leading rusher Rex Burkhead suffered an ACL injury, but he's questionable again for this weekend's showdown. UCLA is 16-9 as a home dog against the spread in the last 10 years—something to think about.
Oklahoma State -11 @ Arizona
The Fighting T. Boone Pickenses roll into Tuscon after winning 84-0 against Savannah State. I'm going to let that sink in.
84-0. They overshot their line by 22 points. Savannah State's head coach thanked OK St. Head Coach Mike Gundy for taking his foot off the gas. This is an offense that lost its top receiver and world-beater QB and still managed to cover the biggest spread in history. Any statistical look at an 84-0 game is by definition stupid, so let's agree that OK St. is coming in with a top-flight defense at all three levels and an offense that is considerably less suspect than it was going into last week, led by freshman QB Wes Lunt. 'Zona looked shaky on defense in last week's overtime win over Toledo and coughed up 3 turnovers on offense. That will not fly against the opportunistic Cowboys, who averaged 1.6 takeaways last year on defense. Arizona will need to establish its running game, which looked strong at times last week, to slow down this OSU attack. Cats QB Matt Scott must continue to find his targets deep for 'Zona to stay close. OSU has dominated the Cats in the last two years, winning twice by a combined score of 73-27.
Fresno State @ Oregon -34.5
Oregon demolished Arkansas State last week, getting contributions from both the running and passing game on offense, led by HUMAN SWISS ARMY KNIFE® DeAnthony Thomas with a million touchdowns (or, you know, 2 rushing TDs, 1 receiving.) Oregon looked otherworldly and stepped on ASU's throat early with a two point conversion after their first touchdown. But, they did get caught napping in the passing game a few times, giving up 14 points that shouldn't have been on the board in their 57-34 blowout. I say this because if anyone is going to catch someone else napping it'll be my girlfriend when I still have chores to do. Also Fresno State QB Derek Carr (yes, his little brother), who completed 80 percent of his passes in a win last week over Weber State, averaging nearly 12 yards per throw. This is not a bush league MWC QB to be trifled with but a legit threat with legit threats to throw to and a solid O-line. It'll be incumbent upon the Ducks to load up the line of scrimmage and stop the run, forcing the throw as Carr's only means of survival. Do that, eliminate easy third down conversions, and you've got him where you want him... but get caught napping and find out the hard way that Fresno is 21-13 against the spread as a road dog over the past 10 years.
Then all at once the trouble started (sharted?)
Nebraska -5.5 @ UCLA
The Cornhuskers head into the City of Angels after a historic Saturday that saw QB Taylor Martinez annihilate Southern Miss with 354 passing yards, completing 76 percent of his throws. Martinez got spectacular protection from his line, and that's bad news for a UCLA defense that had a problem giving up some long receptions to the likes of Rice's RB Sam McGuffie last week. Nebraska struggled against the run, though, giving up 180-plus yards against an inferior opponent in Southern. That's a part of the game where the Bruins excel—freshman QB Brett Hundley busted a 72–yard gain on the first play from scrimmage last week and the team tallied 300-plus rushing yards. The wildcard here is Nebraska's running game—it looked fine last week after leading rusher Rex Burkhead suffered an ACL injury, but he's questionable again for this weekend's showdown. UCLA is 16-9 as a home dog against the spread in the last 10 years—something to think about.
Oklahoma State -11 @ Arizona
The Fighting T. Boone Pickenses roll into Tuscon after winning 84-0 against Savannah State. I'm going to let that sink in.
84-0. They overshot their line by 22 points. Savannah State's head coach thanked OK St. Head Coach Mike Gundy for taking his foot off the gas. This is an offense that lost its top receiver and world-beater QB and still managed to cover the biggest spread in history. Any statistical look at an 84-0 game is by definition stupid, so let's agree that OK St. is coming in with a top-flight defense at all three levels and an offense that is considerably less suspect than it was going into last week, led by freshman QB Wes Lunt. 'Zona looked shaky on defense in last week's overtime win over Toledo and coughed up 3 turnovers on offense. That will not fly against the opportunistic Cowboys, who averaged 1.6 takeaways last year on defense. Arizona will need to establish its running game, which looked strong at times last week, to slow down this OSU attack. Cats QB Matt Scott must continue to find his targets deep for 'Zona to stay close. OSU has dominated the Cats in the last two years, winning twice by a combined score of 73-27.
Fresno State @ Oregon -34.5
Oregon demolished Arkansas State last week, getting contributions from both the running and passing game on offense, led by HUMAN SWISS ARMY KNIFE® DeAnthony Thomas with a million touchdowns (or, you know, 2 rushing TDs, 1 receiving.) Oregon looked otherworldly and stepped on ASU's throat early with a two point conversion after their first touchdown. But, they did get caught napping in the passing game a few times, giving up 14 points that shouldn't have been on the board in their 57-34 blowout. I say this because if anyone is going to catch someone else napping it'll be my girlfriend when I still have chores to do. Also Fresno State QB Derek Carr (yes, his little brother), who completed 80 percent of his passes in a win last week over Weber State, averaging nearly 12 yards per throw. This is not a bush league MWC QB to be trifled with but a legit threat with legit threats to throw to and a solid O-line. It'll be incumbent upon the Ducks to load up the line of scrimmage and stop the run, forcing the throw as Carr's only means of survival. Do that, eliminate easy third down conversions, and you've got him where you want him... but get caught napping and find out the hard way that Fresno is 21-13 against the spread as a road dog over the past 10 years.
Tuesday, September 4, 2012
Week 2: In with the new
By Kyle Magin
Dear Texas A&M,
As you embark on your journey through the SEC—a league that's won 6 of the last 6 national titles in FBS play—your old brothers from Austin wanted to bid you farewell in style, so let's let Justin Tucker take it away, shall we?
Godspeed, A&M!
—The BIG 12
Much has changed for the Aggies since we last talked, dear readers. World-beater QB Ryan Tannehill left for the cocaine and face–eating zombie ridden palm–lined streets of Miami, and A&M is officially now a member of the SEC's western division. Mike Sherman is out, Kevin Sumlin is in from Houston and the Aggs missed their week 1 showdown with Louisiana Tech due to rain. You're caught up.
Florida @ Texas A&M -2
Kyle Field (GREAT name) plays host to A&M's first SEC matchup against Florida. The Gators' pass game struggled mightily last week in a squeaker of a win over Bowling Green, managing just 145 yards. Today coach Will Muschamp named Jeff Driskell starter, ending a QB competition, and promised to open up the offense more after a run–happy first outing. That could spell trouble for A&M, who is less experienced at DL and in the defensive backfield than a squad that last year allowed 417 yards per game on the road. New Ags QB Johnny Manziel marches into this game against one of the top defenses in the country with a good o-line and great receiving corps and questions about the running game; oft-dinged Christine Michael is slated to start at RB. This game could come down, though, to Florida's offensive skill position players, notable the receivers, who struggled mightily last week. Florida is 8-5 as road dogs over the past 10 years, and Muschamp knows how to beat A&M: he went 2 for 3 against the Aggies during his time as Texas' defensive coordinator.
Washington @ LSU -23.5
U-Dub's offense was less than spectacular in its opener against SDSU last weekend—managing just 21 points. QB Keith Price was relatively efficient—70-plus percent completions—though, but he took 3 sacks, more a function of the SDSU defense keying on him instead of the Huskies' anemic rushing game. LSU's QB Zach Mettenberger looked very crisp in his first start, though, tallying a 73-plus percent completion rate and 7.39 yards per completion. His running game, led by Spencer Ware, looked really tough and he won't be forced into passing more than he's comfortable. U-Dub's defense looked good, but LSU's looked great, holding North Texas to 2.2 yards per carry. LSU isn't strong against the spread at home, though, and the last time these two got together in Seattle in '09, the Dogs kept it close in a loss.
Miami @ Kansas State -7
How bad is it in Coral Gables when six players leave early from the team after a 6-6 season? The U looked evenly balanced on offense in a 41-32 win over BC to start the season. But they aren't stopping shit—certainly not a K-State team that racked up 324 yards rushing in an opening beatdown of Missouri State. Quarterback Stephen Morris passed for a paltry 62 percent completion rate and just 4.6 yards per completion—and he'll need to improve each of those numbers significantly to keep up with K-State and defeat a defense that is gaining in experience. Manhattan is probably going to play host to a shootout Saturday.
Dear Texas A&M,
As you embark on your journey through the SEC—a league that's won 6 of the last 6 national titles in FBS play—your old brothers from Austin wanted to bid you farewell in style, so let's let Justin Tucker take it away, shall we?
—The BIG 12
Much has changed for the Aggies since we last talked, dear readers. World-beater QB Ryan Tannehill left for the cocaine and face–eating zombie ridden palm–lined streets of Miami, and A&M is officially now a member of the SEC's western division. Mike Sherman is out, Kevin Sumlin is in from Houston and the Aggs missed their week 1 showdown with Louisiana Tech due to rain. You're caught up.
Florida @ Texas A&M -2
Kyle Field (GREAT name) plays host to A&M's first SEC matchup against Florida. The Gators' pass game struggled mightily last week in a squeaker of a win over Bowling Green, managing just 145 yards. Today coach Will Muschamp named Jeff Driskell starter, ending a QB competition, and promised to open up the offense more after a run–happy first outing. That could spell trouble for A&M, who is less experienced at DL and in the defensive backfield than a squad that last year allowed 417 yards per game on the road. New Ags QB Johnny Manziel marches into this game against one of the top defenses in the country with a good o-line and great receiving corps and questions about the running game; oft-dinged Christine Michael is slated to start at RB. This game could come down, though, to Florida's offensive skill position players, notable the receivers, who struggled mightily last week. Florida is 8-5 as road dogs over the past 10 years, and Muschamp knows how to beat A&M: he went 2 for 3 against the Aggies during his time as Texas' defensive coordinator.
Washington @ LSU -23.5
U-Dub's offense was less than spectacular in its opener against SDSU last weekend—managing just 21 points. QB Keith Price was relatively efficient—70-plus percent completions—though, but he took 3 sacks, more a function of the SDSU defense keying on him instead of the Huskies' anemic rushing game. LSU's QB Zach Mettenberger looked very crisp in his first start, though, tallying a 73-plus percent completion rate and 7.39 yards per completion. His running game, led by Spencer Ware, looked really tough and he won't be forced into passing more than he's comfortable. U-Dub's defense looked good, but LSU's looked great, holding North Texas to 2.2 yards per carry. LSU isn't strong against the spread at home, though, and the last time these two got together in Seattle in '09, the Dogs kept it close in a loss.
Miami @ Kansas State -7
How bad is it in Coral Gables when six players leave early from the team after a 6-6 season? The U looked evenly balanced on offense in a 41-32 win over BC to start the season. But they aren't stopping shit—certainly not a K-State team that racked up 324 yards rushing in an opening beatdown of Missouri State. Quarterback Stephen Morris passed for a paltry 62 percent completion rate and just 4.6 yards per completion—and he'll need to improve each of those numbers significantly to keep up with K-State and defeat a defense that is gaining in experience. Manhattan is probably going to play host to a shootout Saturday.
Monday, September 3, 2012
Week 2: Midwest Monday or "Domestic men of mystery"
By Kyle Magin
This week's slate of games might not be the most impressive—OK, it's probably safe to just watch highlights of everything beside your team's performance—but we'll find some things out about a couple of mystery squads this week. Is Notre Dame's defense really THAT dominating? Is Michigan's that porous? Did MSU find a QB in Andrew Maxwell, or does the search continue? And what's the deal with airline food?
Onto the games:
Air Force @ Michigan -21
Michigan's inexperienced defensive line showed itself to be just that in its 41-14 loss to Alabama Saturday. That's a problem against an Air Force team that, while young, perennially averages 300 rushing yards per game on the road—nearly 6 yards per touch. To be fair, though, Michigan was shredded by the best team in the nation last week, and Air Force doesn't throw the ball that well, rendering the loss of CB Blake Countess pretty much moot. If UM can load up effectively on the defensive side of the ball it matches up favorably against a young bunch of AF OLs. Denard Robinson had difficulty passing against Alabama last week—who doesn't?—but he did manage a respectable 7.4 yards per completion, suggesting his receivers could wrack up a bunch more YAC against a defense that isn't one of the country's best. One thing to note, though—the Falcons are 17-13 against the spread as road dogs in the last decade and 3-3 against BCS opponents in road openers.
Michigan State -23.5 @ Central Michigan
Contrary to looking more experienced, Central's defense, especially its rush defense, looked consistently weak against a Southeastern Missouri squad last week that didn't have an RB named Le'Veon Bell. They have up nearly 5 yards per rush—and on Bell's career day against a much better defense, that was just about his average. MSU's passing game struggled tremendously last week, with QB Andrew Maxwell completing at just a 58 percent clip and tossing 3 INTs. Central's saving grace could be its offense under the direction of QB Ryan Radcliff, who completed his passes for an average of 7.4 yards, but only completed at a 60 percent clip and got a big assist from his rushing game, which will struggle against the Spartans' front 7, who looked about as good as advertised last week. Note, though, that while MSU stomped the Chips last year, they don't traditionally fare well against CMU and own a 5-3 record against them, and they've never made the trip to Mt. Pleasant.
Iowa State @ Iowa -4
Iowa stumbled badly on offense in its neutral field opener against NIU last week, but it's hardly unique in that aspect; a lot of teams struggle to put it all together in week 1. What is troubling is the Hawkeyes have an experienced quarterback and relative question marks at RB and WR, limping to just 129 passing yards and 139 rushing yards in the season opener. Iowa State has a take-charge offense behind QB Steele Jantz, who completed more than 70 percent of his passes while his defense pitched a shutout for the last 33 minutes of the opener. Where Iowa can make hay is by putting pressure on Jantz—ISU's o-line is weak and he has very little pocket awareness and holds the ball far too long, evidenced by his four sacks Saturday. Iowa's front like can get to the QB, and if Jantz goes down or is shaky, this could be a long day for the Cyclones.
Purdue @ Notre Dame -14.5
This is an Irish team that looked REALLY impressive running the ball Saturday vs. Navy to the tune of nearly 300 rushing yards without suspended starter Cierre Wood. QB Everett Golson looked proficient passing the ball and averaged 8 yards per completion. What was really impressive, though, was that Notre Dame's defense held a Navy offense that averaged nearly 30 points last year to just 10. LB Manti Te'o looked every bit the returning All American, and that's a problem for Purdue, who even though they smoked Eastern Kentucky in their opener, have a young o-line and an easily hurt/shaken QB in Robert Marve. Purdue looked every bit the offensive juggernaut last week but a defense that allowed 450 yards on the road last year remains highly suspect. Purdue is a 14-17-1 road dog against the spread in the last 10 years.
This week's slate of games might not be the most impressive—OK, it's probably safe to just watch highlights of everything beside your team's performance—but we'll find some things out about a couple of mystery squads this week. Is Notre Dame's defense really THAT dominating? Is Michigan's that porous? Did MSU find a QB in Andrew Maxwell, or does the search continue? And what's the deal with airline food?
Onto the games:
Air Force @ Michigan -21
Michigan's inexperienced defensive line showed itself to be just that in its 41-14 loss to Alabama Saturday. That's a problem against an Air Force team that, while young, perennially averages 300 rushing yards per game on the road—nearly 6 yards per touch. To be fair, though, Michigan was shredded by the best team in the nation last week, and Air Force doesn't throw the ball that well, rendering the loss of CB Blake Countess pretty much moot. If UM can load up effectively on the defensive side of the ball it matches up favorably against a young bunch of AF OLs. Denard Robinson had difficulty passing against Alabama last week—who doesn't?—but he did manage a respectable 7.4 yards per completion, suggesting his receivers could wrack up a bunch more YAC against a defense that isn't one of the country's best. One thing to note, though—the Falcons are 17-13 against the spread as road dogs in the last decade and 3-3 against BCS opponents in road openers.
Michigan State -23.5 @ Central Michigan
Contrary to looking more experienced, Central's defense, especially its rush defense, looked consistently weak against a Southeastern Missouri squad last week that didn't have an RB named Le'Veon Bell. They have up nearly 5 yards per rush—and on Bell's career day against a much better defense, that was just about his average. MSU's passing game struggled tremendously last week, with QB Andrew Maxwell completing at just a 58 percent clip and tossing 3 INTs. Central's saving grace could be its offense under the direction of QB Ryan Radcliff, who completed his passes for an average of 7.4 yards, but only completed at a 60 percent clip and got a big assist from his rushing game, which will struggle against the Spartans' front 7, who looked about as good as advertised last week. Note, though, that while MSU stomped the Chips last year, they don't traditionally fare well against CMU and own a 5-3 record against them, and they've never made the trip to Mt. Pleasant.
Iowa State @ Iowa -4
Iowa stumbled badly on offense in its neutral field opener against NIU last week, but it's hardly unique in that aspect; a lot of teams struggle to put it all together in week 1. What is troubling is the Hawkeyes have an experienced quarterback and relative question marks at RB and WR, limping to just 129 passing yards and 139 rushing yards in the season opener. Iowa State has a take-charge offense behind QB Steele Jantz, who completed more than 70 percent of his passes while his defense pitched a shutout for the last 33 minutes of the opener. Where Iowa can make hay is by putting pressure on Jantz—ISU's o-line is weak and he has very little pocket awareness and holds the ball far too long, evidenced by his four sacks Saturday. Iowa's front like can get to the QB, and if Jantz goes down or is shaky, this could be a long day for the Cyclones.
Purdue @ Notre Dame -14.5
This is an Irish team that looked REALLY impressive running the ball Saturday vs. Navy to the tune of nearly 300 rushing yards without suspended starter Cierre Wood. QB Everett Golson looked proficient passing the ball and averaged 8 yards per completion. What was really impressive, though, was that Notre Dame's defense held a Navy offense that averaged nearly 30 points last year to just 10. LB Manti Te'o looked every bit the returning All American, and that's a problem for Purdue, who even though they smoked Eastern Kentucky in their opener, have a young o-line and an easily hurt/shaken QB in Robert Marve. Purdue looked every bit the offensive juggernaut last week but a defense that allowed 450 yards on the road last year remains highly suspect. Purdue is a 14-17-1 road dog against the spread in the last 10 years.
Week 2: I get knocked down
By Kyle Magin
We're shaking off a "what the f---!?" weekend, otherwise known as a college football weekend, and getting back in the saddle again for week 2. As a unit, our pickers Big Tex, Kyle and Marcus went 3-9 on the weekend, but separately, we all went 1-3, so that sounds better. Football lines are a fickle mistress.
On the football tip, the games this upcoming weekend are dogsh-t in terms of matchups, in that there isn't a single throwdown between two ranked teams. There are a few interesting matchups borne of geography or unfamiliarity—Washington heads to LSU, Nebraska to UCLA, Florida and Texas A&M's first matchup as SEC rivals, a USC trip to the East Coast and Penn State's attempt to right the ship against Virginia. Let's take a look at this week's interesting lines:
Penn St. @ Virginia -10
Air Force @ Michigan -21
Miami @ Kansas State -7
Michigan State -23.5 @ CMU
USC -26.5 @ Syracuse
Purdue @ Notre Dame -14.5
Fresno State @ Oregon -34
Iowa State @ Iowa -4
Washington @ LSU -23.5
New Mexico @ Texas -37.5
Florida @ Texas A&M -2
Nebraska -5 @ UCLA
Oklahoma State -13.5 @ Arizona
Notes: Michigan opened yesterday at 21.5, just some adjustments, or is Vegas already losing confidence in Big Blue?... K-State stood tall against UM in Florida on a late drive last year, and looked stout in the running game last week...Michigan State hasn't had an easy time with Central, losing in '09, but the Chips looked really bad opening weekend...Anyone who saw USC last weekend knows to get that -26.5 now, because it's only going to rise...Can Notre Dame avoid a hangover from Ireland?...Fresno's passing game was on point last week, with Derek Carr completing at a 80 percent clip...Iowa State's offense is going to be a problem for Iowa, no two ways about it...UW's run game is not where it needs to be vs. LSU, gaining just north of 100 yards last week...If Texas loads up on the run, UNM will have to go to the air, and that's a problem for the Lobos, who managed just 70 passing yards last week...A&M starts its SEC slate without a week 1 tune up against La. Tech...Nebraska's Taylor Martinez set passing records last weekend, and now gets a shot at a UCLA defensive backfield that struggled at times against Rice last week...Oklahoma State covered a 62 pt. spread against Savannah State last week.
On the football tip, the games this upcoming weekend are dogsh-t in terms of matchups, in that there isn't a single throwdown between two ranked teams. There are a few interesting matchups borne of geography or unfamiliarity—Washington heads to LSU, Nebraska to UCLA, Florida and Texas A&M's first matchup as SEC rivals, a USC trip to the East Coast and Penn State's attempt to right the ship against Virginia. Let's take a look at this week's interesting lines:
Penn St. @ Virginia -10
Air Force @ Michigan -21
Miami @ Kansas State -7
Michigan State -23.5 @ CMU
USC -26.5 @ Syracuse
Purdue @ Notre Dame -14.5
Fresno State @ Oregon -34
Iowa State @ Iowa -4
Washington @ LSU -23.5
New Mexico @ Texas -37.5
Florida @ Texas A&M -2
Nebraska -5 @ UCLA
Oklahoma State -13.5 @ Arizona
Notes: Michigan opened yesterday at 21.5, just some adjustments, or is Vegas already losing confidence in Big Blue?... K-State stood tall against UM in Florida on a late drive last year, and looked stout in the running game last week...Michigan State hasn't had an easy time with Central, losing in '09, but the Chips looked really bad opening weekend...Anyone who saw USC last weekend knows to get that -26.5 now, because it's only going to rise...Can Notre Dame avoid a hangover from Ireland?...Fresno's passing game was on point last week, with Derek Carr completing at a 80 percent clip...Iowa State's offense is going to be a problem for Iowa, no two ways about it...UW's run game is not where it needs to be vs. LSU, gaining just north of 100 yards last week...If Texas loads up on the run, UNM will have to go to the air, and that's a problem for the Lobos, who managed just 70 passing yards last week...A&M starts its SEC slate without a week 1 tune up against La. Tech...Nebraska's Taylor Martinez set passing records last weekend, and now gets a shot at a UCLA defensive backfield that struggled at times against Rice last week...Oklahoma State covered a 62 pt. spread against Savannah State last week.
Friday, August 31, 2012
Week 1: The picks keep on coming in...
By TNG
Last night just whet the appetite of college football fans across the nation and gave an alternative for the hopeless NFL fan so desperate for football that they'll sit through the second half of preseason games in Week 4. South Carolina escaped with a victory, but took a beating physically. Mike Leach's team showed they have a lot of work to do, as BYU manhandled them. Let's hit 4 quick picks to get you holiday weekend off to a good start...
Marcus says...
Boise State @ Michigan St. -6.5
I'll be live tweeting (cell service permitted) from the beautified Spartan Stadium as Sparty welcomes in the darling Broncos of Boise State. Our staff is all about this game and all about the Green & White. I'm taking MSU to cover as well. Will Gholston is going to give Junior QB Southwick fits, while Senior QB Andrew Maxwell will take advantage of the opportunity he's been waiting for.
Western Michigan +10 @ Illinois
The Bronco led at halftime last year, with yours truly in attendance, but ran out of steam in the second half. Call it a homer pick but I like Senior QB Alex Carder to play very well in Champaign against a team that's really looking to find an identity under first year head coach Tim Beckman. Take WMU and the points.
Michigan vs. Alabama -14 (Dallas, TX)
Bama putting Michigan on the schedule to start the year is admirable considering the meat grinder that the SEC schedule presents. 14 seems like a lot of points here, but I expect experience to win out over potential. Nick Saban and his Crimson Tide live for these big games and typically don't disappoint. Brady Hoke has the maize and blue heading in the right direction, but their success will come in conference. Take Bama to cover.
Marshall +25.5 @ West Virginia
I doubted QB Geno Smith and the Mountaineers in the Orange Bowl last year and they proceeded to put up 70 on Clemson. As Smith enters his Senior year, 3rd as a starter and a darkhorse Heisman candidate, WVU looks for consistency from him as they transition into the Big 12. The Mountaineer defense is the big unknown here and they only beat Marshall by a 21 point margin last year. Sophomore Rakeem Cato will be under center for the Herd. I'm taking Marshall and the points in a loss in Morgantown. And I've doubted Geno again. Marcus is 0-0 on the season.
Last night just whet the appetite of college football fans across the nation and gave an alternative for the hopeless NFL fan so desperate for football that they'll sit through the second half of preseason games in Week 4. South Carolina escaped with a victory, but took a beating physically. Mike Leach's team showed they have a lot of work to do, as BYU manhandled them. Let's hit 4 quick picks to get you holiday weekend off to a good start...
Marcus says...
Boise State @ Michigan St. -6.5
I'll be live tweeting (cell service permitted) from the beautified Spartan Stadium as Sparty welcomes in the darling Broncos of Boise State. Our staff is all about this game and all about the Green & White. I'm taking MSU to cover as well. Will Gholston is going to give Junior QB Southwick fits, while Senior QB Andrew Maxwell will take advantage of the opportunity he's been waiting for.
Western Michigan +10 @ Illinois
The Bronco led at halftime last year, with yours truly in attendance, but ran out of steam in the second half. Call it a homer pick but I like Senior QB Alex Carder to play very well in Champaign against a team that's really looking to find an identity under first year head coach Tim Beckman. Take WMU and the points.
Michigan vs. Alabama -14 (Dallas, TX)
Bama putting Michigan on the schedule to start the year is admirable considering the meat grinder that the SEC schedule presents. 14 seems like a lot of points here, but I expect experience to win out over potential. Nick Saban and his Crimson Tide live for these big games and typically don't disappoint. Brady Hoke has the maize and blue heading in the right direction, but their success will come in conference. Take Bama to cover.
Marshall +25.5 @ West Virginia
I doubted QB Geno Smith and the Mountaineers in the Orange Bowl last year and they proceeded to put up 70 on Clemson. As Smith enters his Senior year, 3rd as a starter and a darkhorse Heisman candidate, WVU looks for consistency from him as they transition into the Big 12. The Mountaineer defense is the big unknown here and they only beat Marshall by a 21 point margin last year. Sophomore Rakeem Cato will be under center for the Herd. I'm taking Marshall and the points in a loss in Morgantown. And I've doubted Geno again. Marcus is 0-0 on the season.
Week 1: The Picks are in! The Picks are in!
By TNG
Whew, what a first game. South Carolina stumbled, Vandy threatened late but the Cocks held on and TNG went 0-1 on the season. BYU is absolutely throttling Washington State (did anyone see Leach's squad playing this poorly!?). We're looking to turn our record around starting with tonight's big game, Boise State vs. Michigan State in East Lansing. Without further adieu, onto the picks.
Kyle says...
Boise State @ Michigan St. -6.5
Boise brings a very young but talented squad into East Lansing, but put an emphasis on their youth... only 9 starters come back from last year's Boise team, not including star QB Kellen Moore. MSU is similarly inexperienced at QB and WR, but the Spartans bring back much of the 6th best defense in the nation from last year and only look to get better. A really good MSU running game—RB Le'Veon Bell averaged more than 5 yards per carry in 2011—makes the difference in this game, and MSU covers easily.
Navy vs. Notre Dame -15 (Dublin, Ireland)
The Irish FINALLY have a legit defense—led by two-time All American Manti Te'o, who averaged a little more than 1 tackle for for loss last season and an improving D-line—but come in young and thin on offense, having lost top RB Jonas Gray to graduation and #2 RB Cierre Wood to suspension. Junior TE Tyler Eiffert is a star... but we know very little about new QB Everett Golson aside from the fact that he is mobile. Navy is experienced on defense, especially in the backfield, where two seniors hold down a unit that should improve with a better pass rush this year. The offense, though, is tremendously inexperienced up front, returning just two starters with 34 starts between them. That'll be a problem against this Irish D, and Navy will not cover.
Michigan +14 vs. Alabama
I fully overlooked my hatred for Big Blue in making this pick. The spread has been growing all week, but I think that was about more of a cost-saving measure for the sports books than anything UM or Bama was doing. Michigan has a solid if inexperienced receiving corps and question marks at running back. The offensive line is certainly a little weaker without C David Molk. Alabama gets younger the farther you get from the line of scrimmage on defense. But, the duo of QB Aj McCarron and RB Eric Lacy will get loads of time and space to work with behind the best offensive line in the country. UM QB Denard Robinson is the x-factor here, though, and Alabama has never seen a QB with his mobility. Look for shoelace to keep Michigan closer than two touchdowns in a loss.
Nevada vs. Cal -11.5
Cal QB Zach Maynard improved as much as anyone in the country in the second half of last season—upping his completion percentage and leading Cal to put up scores of 30, 23, 28 and 47 points in their last four games. He goes to work with half-brother WR Keenan Allen, an all Pac 12 performer last season. Nevada's front seven just don't have the experience or strength to get a good push against the Cal offensive line, and while the Bears' defense is no fearful thing, Maynard has far more to work with than rapidly improving UNR QB Cody Fajardo. Cal covers.
Kyle is 0-0 on the season
Big Tex says...
OU -31.5 @ UTEP
OU did not have the usual dominant season last year, especially with their D. Bob Stoops' brother, Mike, is back to rejuvenate the defense. Landry Jones is back for revenge and a chance at the BCS National Championship. OU has won its last eight regular season non-conference games by an average of 18 points. Even with this stat, I believe that OU is hungry to prove themselves and run up the score to win by at least 32 points.
Big Tex is 0-1 on the season.
Whew, what a first game. South Carolina stumbled, Vandy threatened late but the Cocks held on and TNG went 0-1 on the season. BYU is absolutely throttling Washington State (did anyone see Leach's squad playing this poorly!?). We're looking to turn our record around starting with tonight's big game, Boise State vs. Michigan State in East Lansing. Without further adieu, onto the picks.
Kyle says...
Boise State @ Michigan St. -6.5
Boise brings a very young but talented squad into East Lansing, but put an emphasis on their youth... only 9 starters come back from last year's Boise team, not including star QB Kellen Moore. MSU is similarly inexperienced at QB and WR, but the Spartans bring back much of the 6th best defense in the nation from last year and only look to get better. A really good MSU running game—RB Le'Veon Bell averaged more than 5 yards per carry in 2011—makes the difference in this game, and MSU covers easily.
Navy vs. Notre Dame -15 (Dublin, Ireland)
The Irish FINALLY have a legit defense—led by two-time All American Manti Te'o, who averaged a little more than 1 tackle for for loss last season and an improving D-line—but come in young and thin on offense, having lost top RB Jonas Gray to graduation and #2 RB Cierre Wood to suspension. Junior TE Tyler Eiffert is a star... but we know very little about new QB Everett Golson aside from the fact that he is mobile. Navy is experienced on defense, especially in the backfield, where two seniors hold down a unit that should improve with a better pass rush this year. The offense, though, is tremendously inexperienced up front, returning just two starters with 34 starts between them. That'll be a problem against this Irish D, and Navy will not cover.
Michigan +14 vs. Alabama
I fully overlooked my hatred for Big Blue in making this pick. The spread has been growing all week, but I think that was about more of a cost-saving measure for the sports books than anything UM or Bama was doing. Michigan has a solid if inexperienced receiving corps and question marks at running back. The offensive line is certainly a little weaker without C David Molk. Alabama gets younger the farther you get from the line of scrimmage on defense. But, the duo of QB Aj McCarron and RB Eric Lacy will get loads of time and space to work with behind the best offensive line in the country. UM QB Denard Robinson is the x-factor here, though, and Alabama has never seen a QB with his mobility. Look for shoelace to keep Michigan closer than two touchdowns in a loss.
Nevada vs. Cal -11.5
Cal QB Zach Maynard improved as much as anyone in the country in the second half of last season—upping his completion percentage and leading Cal to put up scores of 30, 23, 28 and 47 points in their last four games. He goes to work with half-brother WR Keenan Allen, an all Pac 12 performer last season. Nevada's front seven just don't have the experience or strength to get a good push against the Cal offensive line, and while the Bears' defense is no fearful thing, Maynard has far more to work with than rapidly improving UNR QB Cody Fajardo. Cal covers.
Kyle is 0-0 on the season
Big Tex says...
Boise State @ Michigan State -6.5
It is going to be tough for both teams to replicate the successes they both had last year, because both teams will be adjusting to key departures. Michigan State lost Kirk Cousins, winningest QB in school history, along with several wide receivers. Boise State lost Kellen Moore, who is the biggest difference for the Broncos from last year. In addition, the Broncos' four starting linemen from last season departed, along with their top three linebackers. Boise State has won all 6 season openers under Petersen, but look for that to change in East Lansing Friday night. In addition, Boise State is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games. The Spartans win by at least points.
Wyoming +31.5 @ Texas
First off, I have to agree with Kyle's statement "As will be the case against 75 percent of their foes this season, only Texas can stop itself." After switching between QBs throughout the season last year, the Horns named David Ash their starter. I'm not yet convinced, even though I like Ash better than McCoy, because they still seem to be keeping open the possibility of McCoy sharing time. UT has won all 4 meetings with Wyoming by an average margin of victory of 29 points. Expect them to have one of the best defenses in the country with Manny Diaz at the helm along with an improving running game. Texas is 7-15-1 ATS in its last 23 games at home and struggled the last 2 years in opening games against Rice, so I like the Cowboys at +31.5.
First off, I have to agree with Kyle's statement "As will be the case against 75 percent of their foes this season, only Texas can stop itself." After switching between QBs throughout the season last year, the Horns named David Ash their starter. I'm not yet convinced, even though I like Ash better than McCoy, because they still seem to be keeping open the possibility of McCoy sharing time. UT has won all 4 meetings with Wyoming by an average margin of victory of 29 points. Expect them to have one of the best defenses in the country with Manny Diaz at the helm along with an improving running game. Texas is 7-15-1 ATS in its last 23 games at home and struggled the last 2 years in opening games against Rice, so I like the Cowboys at +31.5.
OU -31.5 @ UTEP
OU did not have the usual dominant season last year, especially with their D. Bob Stoops' brother, Mike, is back to rejuvenate the defense. Landry Jones is back for revenge and a chance at the BCS National Championship. OU has won its last eight regular season non-conference games by an average of 18 points. Even with this stat, I believe that OU is hungry to prove themselves and run up the score to win by at least 32 points.
Big Tex is 0-1 on the season.
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