Week 10: Sweet Home Picking

There's one game that matters to the sports media this week. Stay away from it. Way too much money is coming in on LSU-Alabama for the oddsmakers to take it lightly. I have a feeling it's a sucker's bet either way. You're warned.

SEC

Vanderbilt @ Florida -14

New Mexico St. @ Georgia -34.5

Ole Miss -1.5 @ Kentucky

Mid Tennessee @ Tennessee OFF

South Carolina @ Arkansas -5

Tennessee Martin @ Miss. St. OFF

LSU @ Alabama -4.5

PAC12

USC -22 @ Colorado

Stanford -21.5 @ Oregon St.

Washington St. @ Cal -10

Utah @ Arizona -3.5

Arizona St. -9 @ UCLA

Oregon -16.5 @ Washington

BIG12

Texas Tech @ Texas -14.5

Kansas @ Iowa St. -14

Texas A&M @ Oklahoma -14

Missouri @ Baylor -2.5

Kansas State @ Oklahoma State -14

WAC

Idaho @ San Jose State -9

Louisiana Tech @ Fresno State -3.5

Utah State @ Hawaii -3.5

MWAC

Army @ Air Force OFF

TCU -19 @ Wyoming

New Mexico @ San Diego State -35

Boise State -42 @ UNLV

LSU @ Alabama -4.5

Honestly, did you predict this line? I'm not sure anybody did beyond correctly guessing it, blindly. Don't bet this game. Again, Vegas doesn't usually really screw something up if a lot of money is coming in on it. It's a suckers bet. But, if I was a gambling man, I'd STILL stay away from it. If I was a lunatic, though, these teams are evenly matched in a variety of ways. Both shut down offenses scoring 40 + ppg coming into their contests: Bama's bested Florida and Arkansas, while LSU clobbered Florida, Oregon and the defending champs in Auburn. I give Saban and his boys the slight edge because they are home and because they have a stable passing game. By juggling QBs, Les Miles is asking for trouble. Alabama by a hair in the contest, but LSU beats this spread.

Oregon -16.5 @ Washington

It'll be an exciting showdown in the Northwest on Saturday. Oregon is going to score at will on Washington's defense, just like Stanford did when it humbled the Dogs 65-21. Don't expect the Huskies to get caught napping, though. The game is in Seattle, U-Dub got back on the saddle last week against Arizona, and Keith Price is dialing PAC 12 defenses in. Oregon has had difficulties against top-notch offenses this season, and Washington is every bit as good of an offense as OU will see outside of LSU and Stanford this season. Look for the Huskies to beat the spread.

Kansas State @ Oklahoma State -21

Oklahoma gave the nation the blueprint on stopping K-State's option attack last week. It also showed the world how to react when the option stops working: Close in on Cats QB Collin Klein. The kid just doesn't look downfield — his long pass was 11 yards last week. Watch Okie Lite hammer on Klein again while Brandon Weeden and the 'Boys offense continues to pummel defensive backfields. Justin Blackmon has two-multi TD games in his last four, and I could certainly see him notching another few this week based off of time of possession and chances alone. The Cowboys cover.

Utah State @ Hawaii -3.5

The Aggies haven't won a road game this season, why would they start now? After an inspired performance against a very inexperienced Auburn Tigers squad early this year, State has tanked, giving uneven performances on offense as the passing game can't support a horrid run effort, and decidedly mediocre tries on defense. Hawaii is 4-1 in it's last five and scoring points at will. Hawaii covers in the late matchup. This will be a good place to win back the cash you pissed away on the Alabama game, as it kicks at midnight EST.

Week 9: The picks are in! The picks are in!

Get to the closest casino or BoDog account while you're watching tonight's Game 7 because there are a bunch of good games to bet on this weekend. There's a battle for SEC East title contention, a pair of throwdowns in the B1G and a top 10 battle in Big 12 land. Let's get to it.

Marcus says...

Nebraska -4 vs. Michigan State
The line hasn’t moved on this game, but the anticipation is growing. The key to a Sparty win is going to be containing Martinez and Burkhead. MSU’s defense bottled up the Michigan ground game, but struggled against Wisconsin. Tough call and should be a good game but I believe in Sparty. Take MSU and the points.

Ohio State +7 vs. Wisconsin
Boom Herron has returned for the Buckeyes and has made a big impact so far. Wisconsin is coming off a tough loss in East Lansing. Expect Russell Wilson and the Badgers to show up ready to play. Wiscy covers.

Western Michigan -11.5 vs. Ball State
Money is coming in on the Broncos as the line has moved. Earlier in the week I was down on WMU, but am hearing good things out of Kalamazoo. WMU wins by 2 TDs and covers the spread.

Georgia Tech +3 vs. Clemson
Clemson’s dream season rides in the balance while the Yellow Jackets are picking themselves up off the mat. Money is coming in Georgia Tech as the line has moved from 4 to 3. I see a high scoring game with Tech coming out on top. Take GT and the points.


Kyle says...

Oklahoma -14 @ Kansas St.
The Sooners are licking some wounds as they head into a matchup with No. 8, undefeated K-State. Look for the Sooners to lower the Boom on coach Snyder’s option attack and make a statement after last week’s humiliation against the Raider Rash. Take OU and the points.

Georgia -3 @ Florida

It's the world's largest cocktail party, and even with both teams down, it should be one hell of a show in the Swamp this weekend. I'm looking for Ugga to come out on top with the points, because Coach Mark Richt is playing for his job and Will Musschamp is playing with a very shaky QB situation.

South Carolina -4 @ Tennessee

SC limps into Rocky Top with first-year starter Connor Shaw and without Marcus Lattimore. That said, Tennessee's offense is rickety and the Gamecocks have a solid offensive line. I'm going with the chalk again, SC covers.

Navy @ Notre Dame -21.5

Navy has been a pesky, if not downright better opponent than the Irish over the past few years. The Middies don't really stand a chance this year, but Notre dame has been adept at beating itself and if there's one thing the service academies are damned good at, it's taking advantage of your mistakes. I like Navy to beat the spread, but they don't win the game.

Season Standings:

Kyle - 16-14-2
Marcus - 16-16-0

Week 9: National Title Contenders and Heisman Hopefuls

We last gave you our thoughts on the Title Contenders and Heisman Hopefuls in Week 1. Some things have changed, while some picks have stayed the same.
National Title

Kyle says...

Pick
Alabama (Even)
The Crimson Tide are rolling through their SEC schedule and terrorized a good Tennessee defense last week with A.J. McCarron, but all of that is secondary to the No. 1 defense in the nation. Bama gives up less than a touchdown a game, plays LSU in Tuscaloosa, and sports an NFL d-line. This may not be a real stretch of a pick, but Roll Tide.

Worth a Shot
Clemson (+1800)
The Tigers are riding a wild wave. Led by ridiculously talented freshmen on offense in Sammy Watkins and Tajh Boyd, Clemson may stomp through the ACC slate and ride out a major loss from OK St. and Stanford to sit pretty at No. 2 when the dust settles. If it gets to that point, the long-dormant Tigers fan base is sure to be out in force at the Superdome and anything could happen. It could also all fall apart this weekend in Atlanta. Take a waiver on the Tigers though.

Marcus says...

Pick
Alabama (Even) or LSU (+160)
The winner of next weeks showdown has the inside track and both teams are good enough to get there as a one loss team should some of the current unbeatens stumble.

Worth a Shot
Stanford (+500)
The Cardinal are 7-0 and finish the season at USC, at Oregon State, before facing Oregon, Cal and ND at home.  If Andrew Luck and co. can get out of LA alive, they are set up to finish strong and make a serious run at the BCS title game.  

Our odds came from http://www.betvega.com/bcs-champion-odds/

Heisman

Kyle says...

Pick
Trent Richardson (+450)
Richardson has been spelled enough by backup Eric Lacy to ensure fresh legs late in the season—when he’ll capitalize on worn out, beaten up defenses in front of Heisman voters. With McCarron playing like a seasoned quarterback, Richardson’s getting plenty of protection from the passing game. He’ll also get a shot at a few soft defenses to close out the season after the LSU game. Put the smart money on Richardson

Worth a shot
Kellen Moore (+700)
Moore gets a nod because he has the potential to write THE BIGGEST story in college football this season. He’s shredding defenses with a fresh batch of receivers, and there’s a good chance his Broncos go undefeated. There’s a slim chance they end up as only one of two teams of note to do it, and you end up with Kellen Moore starting in a BCS title game. How’s that for storybook?

Marcus says...

Pick
Andrew Luck (+150)
I’m not straying from my Week 1 pick as Andrew Luck continues show he’s ready for the next level.  He is completing just under 72% of his passes and has thrown 20 TDs and only 3 INTs.  Some NFL teams are adopted a “Suck for Luck’ policy for the rest of the year as it’s race to the bottom of the league for the #1 pick in the 2012 draft.

Worth a Shot
Tajh Boyd (+2000)
Clemson will need to win out and be in the BCS title talk for this to happen, but if that’s the case Boyd will be the catalyst behind it.  The sophomore QB has been sick, throwing for 24 TDs and only 3 INTs all while leading the Tigers to an undefeated start to the year.
 
Our odds came from http://www.betvega.com/heisman-trophy-odds/

Week 9: Picks for the ACC, and the rest of the SEC

Welcome back to our Week 9 previews and picks. The beauty of gambling is that you can always, ALWAYS, find interesting action even if the games aren't all over the marquee. They won't be this week, as everyone at ESPN, on the radio and online are waiting for next week's Alabama-LSU matchup in Tuscaloosa. But, if you're willing to do your homework, there are a ton of good matchups to lay a little scratch down on this weekend. Without further delay, let's get to it...

ACC-
Miami (FL) -13.5 vs. Virginia
Florida State -19 vs. NC State
Duke +15 vs. Virginia Tech
Maryland -7.5 vs. Boston College
North Carolina -7 vs. Wake Forest
Georgia Tech +4 vs. Clemson

Marcus Says...

Georgia Tech +4 vs. Clemson
Clemson is continuing to party like it’s 1981 as they roll in Atlanta to face the Yellow Jackets in primetime. The Tigers have risen to #5 in the BCS poll and QB Tajh Boyd is looking to build upon what is an under the radar Heisman resume. While the Tiger offense is scoring 40.6 points per game, the defense is giving up an average of 25. Georgia Tech’s explosive offense led by QB Tevin Washington and RB Orwin Smith have to be looking at that. Tech has stumbled the last two weeks on the road, but return to Bobby Dodd Stadium looking to get back on track and spoil Clemson’s dream season. I expect a shoot out in the ATL on Saturday night and am leaning towards Tech and the points.

SEC-
Georgia -3 @ Florida
South Carolina -4 @ Tennessee
Arkansas -10 @ Vanderbilt
Ole Miss @ Auburn -10.5
Mississippi St. -10 @ Kentucky


Kyle Says...
Georgia -3 @ Florida
This battle in the SEC East is like Brad Pitt’s shitty looking brother: It’ll have to do till the real thing arrives in the SEC West showdown between LSU and Alabama next week. Georgia brings a strong defensive resume, minus a slip-up last week against Vandy, into the Swamp against a struggling Florida offense. The Gators haven’t scored more than 11 points in the three weeks since they were pantsed by Alabama, and their defense, which is solid, has been forced onto the field for far too long. The week off may help the Gators get back on track a bit, but not enough to hold off the Bulldogs, who cover in a win.

South Carolina -4 @ Tennessee
Brandon Wilds is NOT Marcus Lattimore, and the Gamecocks, without their star RB, are in danger of losing their precarious foothold in the SEC East race. Connor Shaw is still settling in at QB and can’t seem to consistently hook up with anyone not named Alshon Jeffery. That said, freshman QB Justin Worley is taking the reins of a severely one-dimensional offense for the Vols, who cannot run the ball. The Cocks have been far more consistent on the defensive side of the ball this season, especially against the pass, and Worley will have a hard time getting anything going without a rushing attack. South Carolina covers, but it aint going to be pretty.

Week 9: Hitting the B1G hard and talking MAC for good measure

It's Week 9 and it feels so good. MSU has a chance to pull away in the Big Ten Legends division, while Wisconsin needs a W to keep their hopes of a Leaders division title alive. Meanwhile, there is absolutely nothing going on in the Big East and our favorite MAC team has self destructed. Enjoy!

B1G-

Nebraska -4 vs. Michigan State
Indiana +8 vs. Northwestern
Michigan -14 vs. Purdue
Minnesota +15.5 vs. Iowa
Penn State -4.5 vs. Illinois
Ohio State +7 vs. Wisconsin

BIG EAST-

Pittsburgh -10 vs. Connecticut
Louisville +3 vs. Syracuse
Rutgers +7 vs. West Virginia

MAC-

Akron +9 vs. Central Michigan
Kent State +5.5 vs. Bowling Green
Western Michigan -11 vs. Ball State
Miami (OH) -6.5 vs. Buffalo

SUN BELT-

FIU -6 vs. Troy
LA-Monroe -6 vs. Western Kentucky
Arkansas State -16.5 vs. North Texas
Middle Tennessee State -3 vs. LA-Lafayette

Marcus says...

Nebraska -4 vs. Michigan State
Sparty’s brutal October schedule continues with a trip to Lincoln.  MSU is coming off a dramatic home win against Wisconsin, while Nebraska took apart lowly Minnesota last week.  The Spartans got all the breaks in East Lansing and used a blocked FG, blocked Punt, and a last second hail mary to beat the Badgers.  RB Le’Veon Bell continues to show flashes of being able to dominate the ground game and WR Keyshawn Martin proved he is one of the most electric players in the B1G.  The Nebraska ground game is led by QB Taylor Martinez and RB Rex Burkhead.  The duo have combined for 1388 yards and 19 rushing TDs so far this season.  The MSU defense will have William Ghoulston back and will need all the help up front they can get.  Wisconsin took Nebraska apart in Madison earlier this year, but they could have easily done that to the Spartans.  Early feeling is Nebraska covers and throws the B1G Legends division into a 3 way tie.

Michigan -14 vs. Purdue
The Wolverines had an extra week to prepare for the Boilers.  Coach Brady Hoke has come out in support of QB Denard Robinson despite his wildly inconsistent play at QB.  Coach Hoke clearly values Robinson’s big play ability and wants to keep his confidence up, but don’t be surprised to see the sophomore QB Devin Gardner getting worked in.  The Michigan defense is only giving up 14.7 points per game and the Wolverine rushing attack is ranked 8th in the country.  The Boilermakers handed Illinois their second straight loss last week to move to 4-3 (2-1 B1G).  QB Caleb TerBush played the whole game under center and delivered a solid 178 yard, 2 TD performance.  Coach Hope has said TerBush has earned the start against Michigan, but former Miami (FL) QB Robert Marve is ready to go if need be.  I expect a UM win in this game, but am leaning towards taking Purdue and the points.

Ohio State +7 vs. Wisconsin
Wisconsin follows up their road trip to East Lansing with another road test in Columbus.  Wisconsin’s offense moved the ball effortlessly at times, but the defense and special teams gave up too many big plays in the loss to the Spartans.  QB Russell Wilson hurt his Heisman candidacy a bit by throwing 2 INTs, but is still having a strong year with 1,780 yards passing and 16 TDs.  Ohio State is 4-3 (1-2 B1G) and is coming off a bye week.  The Buckeyes played better in Week 7 knocking off a then undefeated Illini team after dropping close games against MSU and Nebraska.  The QB situation at Ohio State is the real issue here.  Starter Braxton Miller only completed 1 pass against Illinois, but is expected to be under center against Wiscy.  Joe Bauserman is still ready to step in if necessary but it’s clear Coach Fickell prefers to stay with Miller.  Expect a good game out Ohio State and RB Dan Herron, but I’d take the Badgers to cover.

Western Michigan -11 vs. Ball State
In the span of two weeks, the Broncos have ruined a season that once held such hope.  Coming off a near win at Illinois and wins over Connecticut and Bowling Green, WMU was rocked in DeKalb at the hands of NIU.  They followed that performance with an even more embarrassing loss to Eastern Michigan last week, officially taking them out of the MAC title race.  The Broncos 4-4 (2-2) welcome Ball State 5-3 (3-1) into Kalamazoo this week, with the focus now on becoming bowl eligible.  WR Jordan White also continues to build his NFL Draft resume.  The Cardinals are coming off a win against CMU last week.  Sophomore QB Keith Wenning had a break out game against the Chips, throwing for 325 yards and 3 TDs.  I would hope the Broncos show up on Saturday to get the W, 11 points may be too big of a spread to cover though.    

Week 9: You can't spell Trojan without O.J.

Ahhh, the back end of the college football season. We're finding out who's for real in the PAC 12, BIG 12, WAC, MWAC and in Indyland, and who's a pretender. Stanford laid the hammer down on a good Washington squad last week, proving they're for real. Oklahoma continues its march toward Bedlam, and Boise continues to bide its time and watch as the big boys kill each other off in this week-by-week drama that is college football. Pull up a seat...

PAC 12
Washington State @ Oregon -36.5
Colorado @ Arizona St. -30.5
Cal -5.5 @ UCLA
Stanford -7 @ USC
Oregon St. @ Utah -5
Arizona @ Washington -6

BIG 12
Missouri @ Texas A&M -11.5
Baylor @ Oklahoma State -13.5
Oklahoma -14 @ Kansas St.
Kansas @ Texas -28
Iowa St. @ Texas Tech -15

WAC
SJSU @ La. Tech -7.5
Hawaii -7.5 @ Idaho
Nevada -15 @ NMSU

MWAC
BYU @ TCU -13
Air Force -30.5 @ New Mexico
Colorado St. -3 @ UNLV
Wyoming @ San Diego State -16.5

Independents
Navy @ Notre Dame -20

Stanford -7 @ USC
Stanford comes into the USC game flying high, putting up close to 50 points per game, good for second-best in the nation. Andrew Luck and the Cardinal have only been tested once, but that came last week against a previously solid-looking Washington club. Stanford hung 65 on them. USC is on a hot streak of its own, but it felt like the Trojans' 31-17 victory over Notre Dame was a bowl game for the probationeers. Stanford puts it on USC in L.A. and covers.

Missouri @ Texas A&M -11.5
Mizzou takes its smashmouth rushing attack into College Station, where the Aggies are great against the run, giving up less than three yards per rush this season. The Tigers have been effective in the passing game, though, and that's trouble for the Aggies defense. Ryan Tannehill won't have problems with Missouri's defense, though, as he's ably led A&M's offense to this point in the season. Look for a shootout in College Station, with Mizzou beating the spread but A&M winning the game.

Baylor @ Oklahoma State -13.5
Parents of God-loving football fans won't let their children watch this game, as it'll be pure offensive pornography. RGIII has used his legs and capable running backs to set up a phenomenal passing game. You don't win by making him rely on his arm. You do win the way Oklahoma State plays, which is to keep him the hell off the field. OSU's passing attack, led by Justin Blackmon and Brandon Weeden, can do whatever it wants to, including run time off the clock with short passes over the middle. OSU hangs close to 60 on Baylor's piss poor defense and the Cowboys cover easily.

Oklahoma -14 @ Kansas St.
Normally, when the No. 9 team in the nation is favored by two TDs against the No. 8 team at their place, you'd scratch your head. Not here. Oklahoma is no worse than they were when they were ranked No. 3 last week and brain-farted against Texas Tech. Ryan Broyles, Landry Jones and Co. will come out gunning with the clear thought that winning out in the Big 12, coupled with a few losses in the SEC, could put them right back in the national title picture they squandered away last week. Bob Stoops will figure out how to stop K-State's option attack and we'll be done with this pretender of a squad. OU covers.

BYU @ TCU -13
TCU's two losses this year (Baylor, SMU) have come against hot offense squads with solid quarterbacks. The Cougars' offense has been heating for two straight weeks against subpar competition in preparation for this battle, averaging 46 points per game, but behind shaky, inconsistent quarterback play. TCU has a well-tuned offense and is practiced against better opposition. Look for TCU to pull away late and cover.

Week 8 - The Picks are In! MSU-Wiscy, USC-ND Edition

We're still alive TNG Nation! Let's get right to the picks...

Marcus says...

Michigan State +7 vs. Wisconsin
ESPN College Gameday is in East Lansing this weekend and so am I.  Wiscy comes in undefeated, while the Spartans are riding high after a big win over Michigan.  This will be the Badgers biggest test, but they are still favored on the road.  MSU’s defense has been playing at a high level and the running game is controlling the ball on offense.  Wisconsin’s Russell Wilson is a legit Heisman contender and MSU’s William Ghoulston is suspended for the game, but I see a Spartan victory under the lights.  Take MSU and the points.

Western Michigan -12 @ Eastern Michigan
The Broncos are still stinging from the beat down they received in DeKalb last weekend.  Unfortunately, I was there to witness it.  Expect Coach Cubit to have the offense throwing the ball all over the field.  Coach English has the Eagles playing much better this year and QB Alex Gillett is a threat.  That being said, WMU will be too much for EMU and cover the spread.

Clemson -10 vs. North Carolina
Clemson is 7-0 and believes they are a BCS contender.  QB Tajh Boyd has been terrorizing defenses, throwing for 2000+ yards and 19 TDs this season.  The Tiger defense is on notice though after giving up 5 TDs to the Maryland offense last week.  UNC comes in at 5-2, but has struggled in ACC play so far.  The ‘Heels lost to Miami last week.  Expect a good game and Clemson to move to 8-0, but take UNC and the points.    

Miami (FL) -3 vs. Georgia Tech
Georgia Tech inexplicably dropped their first game of the season at Virginia last week, while Miami knocked off UNC.  QB Tevin Washington had a good game on the ground, but only completed 2 of 8 passes against the Cavaliers.  The Hurricanes have been largely inconsistent all season, having not won two games in a row.  Expect a different Tevin Washington to show up for the ‘Jackets and for Miami’s streak of not wining two games in a row to continue.  Take Georgia Tech and the points.

Kyle says...

USC @ Notre Dame -9
Against competent offenses this season, USC has looked terrible. In frigid temps Saturday evening in South Bend, the boys from SoCal might be run over. Notre Dame is one of the most accomplished offenses in the country this year, and although USC's run-pass combo has steadied, Matt Barkley will have a hard time slinging the ball Saturday. ND covers.

Utah @ Cal -1.5
After scoring just 9 last week against USC, it's become painfully apparent that Cal cannot run the ball. Utah has a stout defense but very little offense. This becomes a slugfest, and Utah beats the spread in San Francisco.

Washington @ Stanford -20
Stanford has racked up impressive numbers this season playing exactly no one. U-Dub has been tested against the likes of Nebraska and Keith Price is running a high powered offebse. That said, Cardinal QB Andrew Luck is destroying defenses. Stanford will win, but Washington beats the spread.

Oklahoma State -6.5 @ Mizzou
OSU is on a tear that doesn't look to stop against Mizzou, which has a stingy defense and top tier running game. It won't be enough to stop the Cowboys high-octane offense. OSU covers.

Season Standings:

Kyle - 15-11-2
Marcus - 15-13-0