Notre Dame @ Michigan State -6
The Spartans haven't surrendered one offensive touchdown yet this season. Last week they held Central Michigan to a 38 percent third down conversion percentage, just 72 rushing yards and 4.6 yards per pass in a effort that was even more dominant than their matchup against Boise State. Notre Dame's defense is impressive—forcing two turnovers out of Purdue last week and holding the Boilermaker offense to less than 300 total yards. Michigan State, though, has Le'Veon Bell, who is averaging more than 6 yards every time he touches the ball. Notre Dame has not yet been tested by a runner, or an offensive line, of Bell and Michigan State's caliber. The Spartans dig in for revenge and cover at home.
USC -8 @ Stanford
Chalk baby. SC gets back in-state after a puzzling game last week in New Jersey vs. Syracuse and lines up a strong but untested Stanford team in its sights. Stanford's passing attack, headed by QB Josh Nunes, has struggled at times in the first two games. He's been sacked and hurried a few times and is completing about 57 percent of his passes—passable numbers against the likes of San Jose State and Duke, but it won't fly against the Trojans, who are led by QB Matt Barkley and two terrific receivers—Marqise Lee and Robert Woods, both well over the 200 yard mark on the two-game long season. If SC can establish its running game looks against this inexperienced Cardinal will open up for Barkley and it's goodnight sweetheart.
BYU -3.5 @ Utah UNDER 46.5
The Holy War pits two different styles against one another—the pass happy Cougars are averaging 305 passing yards per game and Utah has been pretty effective defensively behind leading man DT Star Lotulelei. Shutting down BYU's passing game and forcing them to the rush—they're averaging just under 4 yards per carry as a team—will be key for the Utes. I'd look for BYU to start hot as in the last two games behind QB Riley Nelson (the Cougs average 22.5 points in the first half) then go into a more conservative mode. Utah's offense is a mess behind newly-minted quarterback Jon Hays had accuracy problems when he stepped in as an emergency last week. Take the under. Florida +3 @ Tennessee
This pick might perplex some as Tennessee appears to be as loaded offensively as it's been since the Tee Martin days, but Florida is an absolute monster on defense. In the second half of last week's tight win over Texas A&M, Florida allowed the Aggies to cross the 50 a grand total of once and held them to less than 50 cumulative yards. A&M converted less than a quarter of its third downs against Florida. The Gators aren't any great shakes on offense, though, and QB Jeff Driskell is getting sacked at a rate of nearly 3 times per game. But, Tennessee has had trouble rushing the passer this season, and if Driskell can remain on his feet he'll set up the running game and Tennessee can kiss their day goodbye. Florida to cover.
By Kyle Magin
Tonight's the night week 3 kicks off and we're pumped here at TNG for showdowns in the B1G, SEC, ACC and Pac 12. I feel this much excited:
Wake Forest @ Florida State -28
This has been one of the biggest line swings of the week, with FSU going from a 24-point favorite Sunday to a 28-point favorite Wednesday night. Injuries up front on the offensive line and a rotten running game—even against a lightweight like Liberty in week 1 the Deacons managed just 98 rushing yards—are going to hurt Wake Forest against a potential juggernaut in FSU. QB Tanner Price is averaging more than 12 yards per completion, but he can't get solid protection, leading to a pair of sacks and picks on the young season. Expect his problems with hurries to worsen this weekend, as FSU has recorded seven sacks on the young season, albeit against far inferior competition. FSU's two games against the hapless Murray State and clinically dead totally hapless Savannah State tell very little about the team. We do know they have a top-flight QB in EJ Manuel, who has been on a hot streak for the last four games leading back to last season; we do know they have one of the best D-lines in the nation; we also know they've struggled against Wake Forest, losing four of their last six to the Deacons. This game will be very telling, and I'm not sure yet if I'd get near 28 points.
TCU -21 @ Kansas
TCU enters its first game in the Big 12 as a bit of an unknown—we learned very little in a 56-0 blowout against Grambling State in week 2. QB Casey Pachall is tailor-built for the Big 12's pass-happy league and has an impressive group of WRs and an OL that gave up only a sack per game last season and returns this year as a more experienced unit, led by guard Blaize Foltz. The defense won't knock your socks off, but it gets progressively stronger as you get toward the linebackers and backfield and won't give away many plays—a hallmark of Gary Patterson-coached squads. Kansas, surprise surprise, cannot pass the ball this season or protect QB Dayne Crist, who has been sacked twice and intercepted thrice in the Jayhawks 1-1 start. The o-line's lost 75 starts since last year and Crist's only passing for 156 yards per game this season. KU is 12-16 ATS as a home dog in the past 10 years.
Texas A&M -12 @ SMU
We're going to find out a lot about these Ponies this week. They've suffered a blowout loss to Baylor before turning around and spanking Stephen F. Austin. The offensive line is a joke—allowing three sacks and failing to launch a good group of running backs but somehow sustaining a pretty strong passing game. A&M has a solid defense—especially the linebackers—and forced five punts and two field goals in last week's loss against Florida, a less functional but more talented offense than they'll see this week. Keep an eye on the Aggies' junior defensive end Damontre Moore, who has three tackles for loss for 21 combined yards—he can wreak havoc against an O-line like SMU's. I have a feeling, though, that this game will come down to A&M's offense—will Johnny Manziel get the protection he needs to move A&M down the field? He was sacked three times last week and needs more time to pick a team like this apart.
Nothing gets me stoked for the weekend like a good, old fashioned blood feud. Take it away, state of Utah:
Are you amped for a little LDS–on–gentile violence? I can't wait for the showdown in Provo Saturday, as well as USC's visit to Palo Alto. UCLA is intriguing—is their start flash or something real and sustainable?
Utah @ BYU -4
The BYU Cougars are looking for a little revenge after two straight losses to the Utes, including last year's 54-10 drubbing at The U in Salt Lake City. They might just get it this year—the Cougars' defense has been outstanding, giving up an average of just 239 yards per game and 19 total points. Granted those stats were accumulated against fairly pedestrian competition—Washington State and Weber State—but the offense has also bordered on the spectacular, averaging 305 passing yards per game behind the sure leadership of Senior QB Riley Nelson. Utah's offense, on the other hand, looked like a mess last week in a bad loss to Utah State. Senior QB Jon Hays was putrid coming in for the injured, and now retired, Jordan Wynn last weekend, completing less than half of his passes while more than a third of the drives he led ended in 3 & outs, and more than half in punts. Now, we can chalk that up to preparedness, but Hays had better be ready to go to the air, because BYU is holding opponents to just 55 yards rushing per game. The Utes slightly undersized o-line may be the difference in this one against an experienced and talented BYU front 7.
USC -8 @ Stanford
Only SC could win 49-29, shut an explosive pass offense out for one half and have that be considered a disappointment, but the Trojans managed the feat. Syracuse is a team SC should have blown the doors off of, and it is a team that maybe exposed the Trojans' pass D just a little bit, but this is still a team averaging 290 passing yards while senior QB Matt Barkley tossed 10 touchdowns in two games. It is a team that managed 258 yards on the ground last week. This week it'll face a Stanford team with a stout defense, giving up just 1.2 yards per rush last week and closing out a surprisingly sloppy performance against San Jose State by holding the Spartans to 3 & outs in four of their last five drives—the fifth drive ending in interception caused by QB pressure. Led by Senior LB Shayne Skov, the Cardinal defense is truly dirty, but the offense led by Junior QB Josh Nunes has been troubled. Just 85th in passing yards and 93rd in rushing yards, I'm not sure Stanford has enough to keep up with the SC attack—even if it stalls.
Houston @ UCLA -17
UCLA's offense is on turbo mode right now—averaging 343 rush yards and more than 300 passing yards per game behind the leadership of true frosh QB Brett Hundley. The only worry is that his reticence to throw and his o-line has led to his being sacked 5 times in two games—and dinged because of it. But, Houston's pass rush has been downright miserable, getting exposed in two straight losses. Houston can score with the best of them—the offense is ranked 4th in the nation right now—but until it can stop someone, that over is looking tasty.
Honestly, who predicted the positions Tennessee and Auburn would be in going into week 3? The Vols looks like a potential player on the national stage—forget the suspect SEC LEast. Head Coach Derek Dooley is off the hot seat and playing host to one of the hottest college football tickets in town Saturday when the Gators come on up to Rocky Top. Meanwhile, the moribund Tigers are 0-2 and rudderless, looking a far cry from the team that won the national title just two seasons ago. Suddenly, Head Coach Gene Chizik is on the hot seat because Alabamans have no goddamn sense. He won you a title two years ago. I'm going to turn it over to Early and T-Pain:
To the games!
Louisiana–Monroe @ Auburn -16.5
War Eagle vs. Warhawk took on a whole new dimension last week when La. Monroe beat Arkansas at home—which would normally be good news for the Tigers, except they're winless heading into the matchup. Auburn is hapless on the offensive side of the ball at first glance—QB Kiehl Frazier is completing a wretched 49 percent of his throws and has tossed four picks. What's worse is his rushing game—accounting for just 135 yards per game and just 3.6 yards per carry. The lone bright spot is when Frazier does throw completions he is averaging 13.3 yards, a stat that'd be encouraging if Louisiana–Monroe wasn't a team that just held the vaunted Razorback passing attack to 11 first downs and a 42 percent completion percentage. On this blog I have a history of supporting the little guy, sometimes to a fault, so let's clear the air: Auburn is a supremely talented team and should roll easily. But, we know very little about where this team's head is right now, and the line fluctuated wildly when it was first released, bouncing from -16 to -19 to its current holding pattern at 16.5.
Alabama -19.5 @ Arkansas
Books are scared to death of this game (there's a Southern illiteracy joke in there I'm not going to touch) and you should be too. A lot of books don't have a line posted yet, and the ones who do waited until today to open with a 19 or 19.5. There are a lot of questions right now and unless you feel really confident about Nick Saban's Tide—there's almost no reason not too—then stand pat. Arkansas had a helluva struggle last week and supposedly all–world QB Tyler Wilson struggled and suffered an apparent concussion. Wilson's status is key to the game and the line, if he is healthy, Arkansas' chances do nothing but improve behind the senior who averaged more than 13 yards per completion last year and tossed 24 TDs. I don't need to tell you who he's lining up against, though. The Tide defense has held opponents to 493 yards of combined offense in two games. 'Bama is averaging 16.3 yards per completion to opponents' 12.2. They've allowed one passing touchdown and exactly zero scores in the first and fourth quarters of either of their games. Wilson had better be ready.
Florida @ Tennessee -3
Tennessee has some absolute monsters on offense, with QB Tyler Bray completing passes at a 73 percent clip and tossing 6 touchdowns so far in the young season. WR Cordarrelle Patterson is a beast, averaging more than 18 yards per catch with longs of 84 yards receiving and 67 yards rushing. The Tennessee machine—which, by the way, is holding opponents to just about 100 yards rushing per game—faces a Florida squad that is also 2-0 but has been unspectacular in two outings. The Gator D has stood tall—allowing less than 16 points per game, but the rushing game has struggled and QB Jeff Driskell is still trying to find his rhythm and has been protected by the coaching staff, throwing only 32 times in his first two games. He'll need to step it up to keep up with Tennessee, especially at Rocky Top.
Many teams go into reputation-establishing battle Saturday.
Only a few can come out. In the land of meat and potatoes, Michigan State welcomes Notre Dame into Spartan Stadium, while Cal takes its wildly inconsistent defense into Ohio State. Then, Wisconsin, the poor, hapless Badgers, welcome in Utah State in what's sure to be a total pillow fight throwdown. Wisconsin is looking to find out if last week's loss to Oregon State was just a fluke or if this is going to be a long season at Camp Randall, while Ohio State takes a shot at a high-powered out-of-conference foe and ND goes to MSU to try to extend its winning streak to two games. Let's take a look at the matchups.
Notre Dame @ Michigan State -4
The Irish had problems at home against Purdue last week, barely scraping by as the offense struggled to gain ground with the rushing attack and had to lean on a suspect pass game to get by. That'll be a problem against the Spartans, who are holding opposing passing games to less than a 48 percent completion percentage and 200 yards per game. Opposing rushing attacks aren't doing any better against the Spartan D. The Irish have been strong against opposing pass offenses, which bodes poorly for MSU's attack, led by the still-inexperienced QB Andrew Maxwell. Still, as stated earlier, this is a special Spartan Defense.
Cal @ Ohio State -18
In Cal's one game against a competitive team this season—a 31-24 loss to Nevada—it gave up 9.2 yards per completion, something you can bet tOSU coach Urban Meyer is taking note of. If Braxton Miller can force Cal into man to man pass coverage with his legs—a tall order given Cal's fairly strong defense against the run—he'll open up room for a few bombs and it'll be a long day for the boys from Berkeley. Cal QB Zach Maynard has run hot and cold but got very hot last week against Southern Utah, and is averaging north of 13 yards per completion. OSU is strong in the 'Shoe, though.
Utah State @ Wisconsin -14
Utah State appears to actually have a really good defense—holding opponents to 11.5 points per game. Quarterback Chuckie Keeton is completing passes at a 77 percent rate—throwing for nearly 12 yards with every completion while his rushing attack averages a little better than 5 yards per carry. Wisconsin cannot get its offense going, struggling mightily in the rushing game with Montee Ball having a difficult time getting his season going. If Ball and Co. can't buy QB Danny O'Brien more time in the passing game, it'll be a tall order for the Badgers to keep up with Keeton and the Aggies.
TNG is back! After a rough week 1, we came back in a big way with Friday's picks, going 8-4 as a unit. We're still under .500 on the season at 11-13, but it's still young. For your notes, Big Tex and Kyle went 3-1 and Marcus came out even at 2-2.
In week 3 we step back into a world of ranked matchups—Michigan State and Notre Dame, Tennessee and Florida, USC and Stanford—and a week that (probably) won't finish with the largest line ever issued by Vegas as Savannah State is taking a week off of playing Republican Guard vs. US military. Let's take a look at the upcoming week:
**Boxing**
Sergio "Maravilla" Martinez -185 vs. Julia Caesar Chavez, Jr.
Notes: Florida State hasn't been tested yet this season, will they be ready for Wake's pass attack?...Cal Quarterback Zach Maynard will need to improve his passing efficiency...Kansas' Charlie Weis gets his first crack at a Big 12 opponent...Louisiana Monroe-Auburn opened a few hours ago at -17, maybe Vegas is scared of the Warhawks?...'Bama-Arkansas looked huge before yesterday...A&M gets a breather after Florida...Florida, on the other hand, goes to Rocky Top...Big matchup in the Pac 12 between USC-Stanford, or will Stanford be unmasked?...Notre Dame plays its first true road game...Wisconsin looks to bounce back from a demoralizing loss against a USU team riding high...The Holy War is less compelling football after the Utes loss...UCLA QB Brett Hundley is becoming must-watch TV...Maravilla is a favorite with a lot more to fight for.
Let's try this again, shall we? After a miserable week of picking games (TNG went 3-9 as a unit last week) we're back to try our hand at guiding your bets this weekend. Some of us swore off betting on our teams, others turned to voodoo and some have adopted a minimalist's stance on defending these picks up front. Whatever the strategy, let's hope like hell it works, because (6 second mark):
Let's get to it.
Big Tex says...
Season record: 1-3
Last week: 1-3
Big Tex perhaps ate a Texas–sized piece of humble pie, or actually has, you know, a busy life. Either way, he wins the award for shortest picks ever by a TNG picker. Good job, or something.
Texas Tech @ Texas State
Over 59.5 points
The total has gone OVER in eight of Tech's last 11 games.
New Mexico +38.5 @ Texas
Texas is 7-16-1 ATS in its last 24 games at home.
Penn State @ Virginia -9.5 Virginia to cover only because Penn State is not good.
Illinois@ Arizona State -3.5
I like ASU to cover.
Marcus says...
Season record: 1-3
Last week: 1-3
Michigan St. -20@ Central Michigan I witnessed Sparty's 2009 embarrassing home loss at the hands of CMU, but also was there for the beat down MSU put on the Chips in 2011. Last weeks game showed that Andrew Maxwell has some work to do, but also that Le'Veon Bell is a horse. Sparty doubled about Boise in time of possession on the back of Bell. Central Michigan opened with a win against SE Missouri State on the strength of two 100 yard rushers. I don't see that performance duplicated and while Kelly / Shorts Stadium will be at a fever pitch, this game will be over at halftime. Take MSU to cover. Wisconsin -7@ Oregon State Wiscy ALMOST ruined their season in week 1, barely getting by Northern Iowa. Cinderella story if you lose to the Panthers in the NCAA basketball tournament. Flat out embarrassing in football. New transfer QB Danny O'Brien didn't turn the ball over and completed 83% of his passes, but the memory of last years transfer-rule exploitation, er sensation, Russell Wilson will continue to linger. Oregon State had their week 1 postponed as Hurricane Isaac kept Nicholls State in Louisiana. Corvallis will be rocking, but Wisconsin will have a chip on their shoulder from last week. Montee Ball explodes, take the Badgers to cover. Air Force +21 @ Michigan The Wolverines plummeted in the polls after the beat down they took at the hands of Bama last week. Michigan was clearly outmatched as the Crimson Tide showed they've reloaded and are ready to make another BCS title run. Michigan has to be concerned about their rush defense after giving up 200+. While Air Force isn't Alabama they are one of the most potent rushing attacks in college football. Cody Getz rushed for 218 yards on 17 carries last week against Idaho State. I expect Denard to get loose and the Wolverines to win this one, but not by 3 TDs. I'm taking Air Force and the points. Purdue @ Notre Dame -14 This game will be our live tweet (cell service permitting) of the week as I will be inside Notre Dame Stadium taking in the home opener. Sophomore QB Everett Golson did enough in his first career start last week in Dublin to keep Tommy Rees on the sideline. Rees, a Junior who started most of last year, is back from a one game suspension. Golson moved the offense down the field and only turned the ball over once. The Boilers will go with Senior QB Caleb TerBush who also served a suspension last week. Former Miami Hurricane QB Robert Marve played well in last week's opener but will be back to backup duties in South Bend. The Irish ground attack led the way against Navy and expects to be on display again as Golson continues to get more comfortable. I'm taking ND to cover. Kyle says... Season record: 1-3 Last week: 1-3 Michigan State -20 @ Central Michigan The Spartans struggled last week on offense, true enough, but praise for the work the defense did was lost in the shuffle. MSU pitched a shutout of Boise State in the second half, holding the Broncos to four drives averaging less than 2:30 and ending in three punts and a turnover on downs. They brutalized Boise in the back half of the game, and that's important to remember against a team like the Chips, who may have a strong set of starters but are woefully thin and young on the bench. If the Spartan defense can shorten the offense's stay in a similar way, Central's defense gets tested and will have to sub in new bodies. That's when State RB Le'Veon Bell goes to work—he totaled close to 180 yards in the second half last week. Central did work on the ground last week, too, but QB Ryan Radcliff struggled through the air, and if MSU can load up on the line, it'll be a long night in Flat Misery. Spartans to cover. Purdue @ Notre Dame -14.5 The Fighting Irish looked really good in Dublin last week, hanging a 50 spot on Navy in a predawn drubbing. Purdue looked very solid in its opener vs. Eastern Kentucky, and QB Robert Marve was extremely accurate passing the ball. He'll need to stay that way if he'd like to remain undefeated against the Irish, who, behind senior LB Manti Te'o, stuffed the run very effectively. The Irish were vulnerable against the pass and gave up close to 10 yards per attempt, but I believe that's more a function of Navy passing to play catchup than the Irish bending too far. Look for the Irish to swamp one of the B1G's weakest links. ND to cover. Washington @ LSU -24 I vacillated heavily (is that a medical condition!?) over this one, finally deciding the Bayou Bengals will be just too much for the Dawgs. The LSU offense, under Zach Mettenberger, averaged just less than 7 yards per rush and just more than 10 yards per completion last week. Now, facing a better pass defense in Washington with Shaq Thompson and Desmond Trufant, Mettenberger won't have it quite as easy, but he'll still have the rush game to back him up, which is more than his counterpart Keith Price can say for U-Dub. San Diego State stuffed Washington's rush game last week, allowing just a little more than 100 yards, and LSU's defense is at least twice as good. Forcing Price to the air that much more often ups his chances for a f---up, and nobody capitalizes on turnovers like this LSU D. I'm taking the Tigers to cover. Florida @ Texas A&M -1 Pressure is the name of this game—A&M enters their first SEC matchup a home favorite, and after Florida's shaky outing last week, the Gators need to make a statement. In Florida's shockingly close win over Bowling Green last week, the defense did tighten up as the game went on—especially on BG's rush game. RB Mike GIllislee ensured Florida won the crucial time of possession battle to keep them ahead. We still don't know anything about this A&M team yet, outside of the fact that they're breaking in a new quarterback. If last week's games were any indication, that's no easy task, especially if the Gator D can hamper the Aggies ability to pass. I look for Florida to cover.
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