TNG is back! After a rough week 1, we came back in a big way with Friday's picks, going 8-4 as a unit. We're still under .500 on the season at 11-13, but it's still young. For your notes, Big Tex and Kyle went 3-1 and Marcus came out even at 2-2.
In week 3 we step back into a world of ranked matchups—Michigan State and Notre Dame, Tennessee and Florida, USC and Stanford—and a week that (probably) won't finish with the largest line ever issued by Vegas as Savannah State is taking a week off of playing Republican Guard vs. US military. Let's take a look at the upcoming week:
**Boxing**
Sergio "Maravilla" Martinez -185 vs. Julia Caesar Chavez, Jr.
Notes: Florida State hasn't been tested yet this season, will they be ready for Wake's pass attack?...Cal Quarterback Zach Maynard will need to improve his passing efficiency...Kansas' Charlie Weis gets his first crack at a Big 12 opponent...Louisiana Monroe-Auburn opened a few hours ago at -17, maybe Vegas is scared of the Warhawks?...'Bama-Arkansas looked huge before yesterday...A&M gets a breather after Florida...Florida, on the other hand, goes to Rocky Top...Big matchup in the Pac 12 between USC-Stanford, or will Stanford be unmasked?...Notre Dame plays its first true road game...Wisconsin looks to bounce back from a demoralizing loss against a USU team riding high...The Holy War is less compelling football after the Utes loss...UCLA QB Brett Hundley is becoming must-watch TV...Maravilla is a favorite with a lot more to fight for.
Let's try this again, shall we? After a miserable week of picking games (TNG went 3-9 as a unit last week) we're back to try our hand at guiding your bets this weekend. Some of us swore off betting on our teams, others turned to voodoo and some have adopted a minimalist's stance on defending these picks up front. Whatever the strategy, let's hope like hell it works, because (6 second mark):
Let's get to it.
Big Tex says...
Season record: 1-3
Last week: 1-3
Big Tex perhaps ate a Texas–sized piece of humble pie, or actually has, you know, a busy life. Either way, he wins the award for shortest picks ever by a TNG picker. Good job, or something.
Texas Tech @ Texas State
Over 59.5 points
The total has gone OVER in eight of Tech's last 11 games.
New Mexico +38.5 @ Texas
Texas is 7-16-1 ATS in its last 24 games at home.
Penn State @ Virginia -9.5 Virginia to cover only because Penn State is not good.
Illinois@ Arizona State -3.5
I like ASU to cover.
Marcus says...
Season record: 1-3
Last week: 1-3
Michigan St. -20@ Central Michigan I witnessed Sparty's 2009 embarrassing home loss at the hands of CMU, but also was there for the beat down MSU put on the Chips in 2011. Last weeks game showed that Andrew Maxwell has some work to do, but also that Le'Veon Bell is a horse. Sparty doubled about Boise in time of possession on the back of Bell. Central Michigan opened with a win against SE Missouri State on the strength of two 100 yard rushers. I don't see that performance duplicated and while Kelly / Shorts Stadium will be at a fever pitch, this game will be over at halftime. Take MSU to cover. Wisconsin -7@ Oregon State Wiscy ALMOST ruined their season in week 1, barely getting by Northern Iowa. Cinderella story if you lose to the Panthers in the NCAA basketball tournament. Flat out embarrassing in football. New transfer QB Danny O'Brien didn't turn the ball over and completed 83% of his passes, but the memory of last years transfer-rule exploitation, er sensation, Russell Wilson will continue to linger. Oregon State had their week 1 postponed as Hurricane Isaac kept Nicholls State in Louisiana. Corvallis will be rocking, but Wisconsin will have a chip on their shoulder from last week. Montee Ball explodes, take the Badgers to cover. Air Force +21 @ Michigan The Wolverines plummeted in the polls after the beat down they took at the hands of Bama last week. Michigan was clearly outmatched as the Crimson Tide showed they've reloaded and are ready to make another BCS title run. Michigan has to be concerned about their rush defense after giving up 200+. While Air Force isn't Alabama they are one of the most potent rushing attacks in college football. Cody Getz rushed for 218 yards on 17 carries last week against Idaho State. I expect Denard to get loose and the Wolverines to win this one, but not by 3 TDs. I'm taking Air Force and the points. Purdue @ Notre Dame -14 This game will be our live tweet (cell service permitting) of the week as I will be inside Notre Dame Stadium taking in the home opener. Sophomore QB Everett Golson did enough in his first career start last week in Dublin to keep Tommy Rees on the sideline. Rees, a Junior who started most of last year, is back from a one game suspension. Golson moved the offense down the field and only turned the ball over once. The Boilers will go with Senior QB Caleb TerBush who also served a suspension last week. Former Miami Hurricane QB Robert Marve played well in last week's opener but will be back to backup duties in South Bend. The Irish ground attack led the way against Navy and expects to be on display again as Golson continues to get more comfortable. I'm taking ND to cover. Kyle says... Season record: 1-3 Last week: 1-3 Michigan State -20 @ Central Michigan The Spartans struggled last week on offense, true enough, but praise for the work the defense did was lost in the shuffle. MSU pitched a shutout of Boise State in the second half, holding the Broncos to four drives averaging less than 2:30 and ending in three punts and a turnover on downs. They brutalized Boise in the back half of the game, and that's important to remember against a team like the Chips, who may have a strong set of starters but are woefully thin and young on the bench. If the Spartan defense can shorten the offense's stay in a similar way, Central's defense gets tested and will have to sub in new bodies. That's when State RB Le'Veon Bell goes to work—he totaled close to 180 yards in the second half last week. Central did work on the ground last week, too, but QB Ryan Radcliff struggled through the air, and if MSU can load up on the line, it'll be a long night in Flat Misery. Spartans to cover. Purdue @ Notre Dame -14.5 The Fighting Irish looked really good in Dublin last week, hanging a 50 spot on Navy in a predawn drubbing. Purdue looked very solid in its opener vs. Eastern Kentucky, and QB Robert Marve was extremely accurate passing the ball. He'll need to stay that way if he'd like to remain undefeated against the Irish, who, behind senior LB Manti Te'o, stuffed the run very effectively. The Irish were vulnerable against the pass and gave up close to 10 yards per attempt, but I believe that's more a function of Navy passing to play catchup than the Irish bending too far. Look for the Irish to swamp one of the B1G's weakest links. ND to cover. Washington @ LSU -24 I vacillated heavily (is that a medical condition!?) over this one, finally deciding the Bayou Bengals will be just too much for the Dawgs. The LSU offense, under Zach Mettenberger, averaged just less than 7 yards per rush and just more than 10 yards per completion last week. Now, facing a better pass defense in Washington with Shaq Thompson and Desmond Trufant, Mettenberger won't have it quite as easy, but he'll still have the rush game to back him up, which is more than his counterpart Keith Price can say for U-Dub. San Diego State stuffed Washington's rush game last week, allowing just a little more than 100 yards, and LSU's defense is at least twice as good. Forcing Price to the air that much more often ups his chances for a f---up, and nobody capitalizes on turnovers like this LSU D. I'm taking the Tigers to cover. Florida @ Texas A&M -1 Pressure is the name of this game—A&M enters their first SEC matchup a home favorite, and after Florida's shaky outing last week, the Gators need to make a statement. In Florida's shockingly close win over Bowling Green last week, the defense did tighten up as the game went on—especially on BG's rush game. RB Mike GIllislee ensured Florida won the crucial time of possession battle to keep them ahead. We still don't know anything about this A&M team yet, outside of the fact that they're breaking in a new quarterback. If last week's games were any indication, that's no easy task, especially if the Gator D can hamper the Aggies ability to pass. I look for Florida to cover.
It's an evil time in the future, when no ranked teams are playing one another and all manner of angst and nastiness are prevalent in college football. It's this upcoming Saturday.
We do get some interesting cross-coastal matchups, though, and a few teams who already need to make a statement or get ready for basketball season. Let's look at a few: USC -26 @ Syracuse
What's there to say about USC after they drubbed Hawaii last week? Matt Barkley looks like one of the best QBs in the nation and Marqise Lee appears to be a very dangerous receiver. Syracuse will need to muster a more impressive rushing game than they did in an opening loss to Northwestern, when they managed just 81. If they get into a shootout with USC and can't even the time of posession, they have no hope.
New Mexico @ Texas -38
Texas' D struggled at times in an opening 38-17 victory over Wyoming. The offense, behind David Ash, looked solid if not spectacular, but the defense lapsed at time in ways that show the Horns could be burnt by a good team. Thankfully for the Horns, New Mexico does not pass the ball and are not a good team. If Texas loads up the box to stuff the triple option, the Lobos do not have the tools to pass over them.
Penn State @ Virginia -9.5
Penn State visits Virginia for the next act in its season–long horror story. Matt McGloin made it clear last week against Ohio that he cannot make up for a rushing game gained him just about 100 yards, struggling to complete balls late and throwing a pick. If Virginia can again stop the Lions rushing attack, they'll win the time of posession easily and it'll be on McGloin to carry PSU's offense, a thought that makes folks in State College sick.
I'd say you've had enough! But you haven't, because it's only Wednesday, and we've still got the Wild, Wild West to cover. While the upcoming slate of games this week is pretty weak, overall, there are a few compelling matchups on the far side of the Mississippi. Let's get to it.
Nebraska -5.5 @ UCLA
The Cornhuskers head into the City of Angels after a historic Saturday that saw QB Taylor Martinez annihilate Southern Miss with 354 passing yards, completing 76 percent of his throws. Martinez got spectacular protection from his line, and that's bad news for a UCLA defense that had a problem giving up some long receptions to the likes of Rice's RB Sam McGuffie last week. Nebraska struggled against the run, though, giving up 180-plus yards against an inferior opponent in Southern. That's a part of the game where the Bruins excel—freshman QB Brett Hundley busted a 72–yard gain on the first play from scrimmage last week and the team tallied 300-plus rushing yards. The wildcard here is Nebraska's running game—it looked fine last week after leading rusher Rex Burkhead suffered an ACL injury, but he's questionable again for this weekend's showdown. UCLA is 16-9 as a home dog against the spread in the last 10 years—something to think about.
Oklahoma State -11 @ Arizona
The Fighting T. Boone Pickenses roll into Tuscon after winning 84-0 against Savannah State. I'm going to let that sink in.
84-0. They overshot their line by 22 points. Savannah State's head coach thanked OK St. Head Coach Mike Gundy for taking his foot off the gas. This is an offense that lost its top receiver and world-beater QB and still managed to cover the biggest spread in history. Any statistical look at an 84-0 game is by definition stupid, so let's agree that OK St. is coming in with a top-flight defense at all three levels and an offense that is considerably less suspect than it was going into last week, led by freshman QB Wes Lunt. 'Zona looked shaky on defense in last week's overtime win over Toledo and coughed up 3 turnovers on offense. That will not fly against the opportunistic Cowboys, who averaged 1.6 takeaways last year on defense. Arizona will need to establish its running game, which looked strong at times last week, to slow down this OSU attack. Cats QB Matt Scott must continue to find his targets deep for 'Zona to stay close. OSU has dominated the Cats in the last two years, winning twice by a combined score of 73-27.
Fresno State @ Oregon -34.5
Oregon demolished Arkansas State last week, getting contributions from both the running and passing game on offense, led by HUMAN SWISS ARMY KNIFE® DeAnthony Thomas with a million touchdowns (or, you know, 2 rushing TDs, 1 receiving.) Oregon looked otherworldly and stepped on ASU's throat early with a two point conversion after their first touchdown. But, they did get caught napping in the passing game a few times, giving up 14 points that shouldn't have been on the board in their 57-34 blowout. I say this because if anyone is going to catch someone else napping it'll be my girlfriend when I still have chores to do. Also Fresno State QB Derek Carr (yes, his little brother), who completed 80 percent of his passes in a win last week over Weber State, averaging nearly 12 yards per throw. This is not a bush league MWC QB to be trifled with but a legit threat with legit threats to throw to and a solid O-line. It'll be incumbent upon the Ducks to load up the line of scrimmage and stop the run, forcing the throw as Carr's only means of survival. Do that, eliminate easy third down conversions, and you've got him where you want him... but get caught napping and find out the hard way that Fresno is 21-13 against the spread as a road dog over the past 10 years.
Dear Texas A&M,
As you embark on your journey through the SEC—a league that's won 6 of the last 6 national titles in FBS play—your old brothers from Austin wanted to bid you farewell in style, so let's let Justin Tucker take it away, shall we?
Godspeed, A&M!
—The BIG 12
Much has changed for the Aggies since we last talked, dear readers. World-beater QB Ryan Tannehill left for the cocaine and face–eating zombie ridden palm–lined streets of Miami, and A&M is officially now a member of the SEC's western division. Mike Sherman is out, Kevin Sumlin is in from Houston and the Aggs missed their week 1 showdown with Louisiana Tech due to rain. You're caught up.
Florida @ Texas A&M -2
Kyle Field (GREAT name) plays host to A&M's first SEC matchup against Florida. The Gators' pass game struggled mightily last week in a squeaker of a win over Bowling Green, managing just 145 yards. Today coach Will Muschamp named Jeff Driskell starter, ending a QB competition, and promised to open up the offense more after a run–happy first outing. That could spell trouble for A&M, who is less experienced at DL and in the defensive backfield than a squad that last year allowed 417 yards per game on the road. New Ags QB Johnny Manziel marches into this game against one of the top defenses in the country with a good o-line and great receiving corps and questions about the running game; oft-dinged Christine Michael is slated to start at RB. This game could come down, though, to Florida's offensive skill position players, notable the receivers, who struggled mightily last week. Florida is 8-5 as road dogs over the past 10 years, and Muschamp knows how to beat A&M: he went 2 for 3 against the Aggies during his time as Texas' defensive coordinator.
Washington @ LSU -23.5
U-Dub's offense was less than spectacular in its opener against SDSU last weekend—managing just 21 points. QB Keith Price was relatively efficient—70-plus percent completions—though, but he took 3 sacks, more a function of the SDSU defense keying on him instead of the Huskies' anemic rushing game. LSU's QB Zach Mettenberger looked very crisp in his first start, though, tallying a 73-plus percent completion rate and 7.39 yards per completion. His running game, led by Spencer Ware, looked really tough and he won't be forced into passing more than he's comfortable. U-Dub's defense looked good, but LSU's looked great, holding North Texas to 2.2 yards per carry. LSU isn't strong against the spread at home, though, and the last time these two got together in Seattle in '09, the Dogs kept it close in a loss.
Miami @ Kansas State -7
How bad is it in Coral Gables when six players leave early from the team after a 6-6 season? The U looked evenly balanced on offense in a 41-32 win over BC to start the season. But they aren't stopping shit—certainly not a K-State team that racked up 324 yards rushing in an opening beatdown of Missouri State. Quarterback Stephen Morris passed for a paltry 62 percent completion rate and just 4.6 yards per completion—and he'll need to improve each of those numbers significantly to keep up with K-State and defeat a defense that is gaining in experience. Manhattan is probably going to play host to a shootout Saturday.
This week's slate of games might not be the most impressive—OK, it's probably safe to just watch highlights of everything beside your team's performance—but we'll find some things out about a couple of mystery squads this week. Is Notre Dame's defense really THAT dominating? Is Michigan's that porous? Did MSU find a QB in Andrew Maxwell, or does the search continue? And what's the deal with airline food?
Onto the games:
Air Force @ Michigan -21
Michigan's inexperienced defensive line showed itself to be just that in its 41-14 loss to Alabama Saturday. That's a problem against an Air Force team that, while young, perennially averages 300 rushing yards per game on the road—nearly 6 yards per touch. To be fair, though, Michigan was shredded by the best team in the nation last week, and Air Force doesn't throw the ball that well, rendering the loss of CB Blake Countess pretty much moot. If UM can load up effectively on the defensive side of the ball it matches up favorably against a young bunch of AF OLs. Denard Robinson had difficulty passing against Alabama last week—who doesn't?—but he did manage a respectable 7.4 yards per completion, suggesting his receivers could wrack up a bunch more YAC against a defense that isn't one of the country's best. One thing to note, though—the Falcons are 17-13 against the spread as road dogs in the last decade and 3-3 against BCS opponents in road openers.
Michigan State -23.5 @ Central Michigan
Contrary to looking more experienced, Central's defense, especially its rush defense, looked consistently weak against a Southeastern Missouri squad last week that didn't have an RB named Le'Veon Bell. They have up nearly 5 yards per rush—and on Bell's career day against a much better defense, that was just about his average. MSU's passing game struggled tremendously last week, with QB Andrew Maxwell completing at just a 58 percent clip and tossing 3 INTs. Central's saving grace could be its offense under the direction of QB Ryan Radcliff, who completed his passes for an average of 7.4 yards, but only completed at a 60 percent clip and got a big assist from his rushing game, which will struggle against the Spartans' front 7, who looked about as good as advertised last week. Note, though, that while MSU stomped the Chips last year, they don't traditionally fare well against CMU and own a 5-3 record against them, and they've never made the trip to Mt. Pleasant.
Iowa State @ Iowa -4
Iowa stumbled badly on offense in its neutral field opener against NIU last week, but it's hardly unique in that aspect; a lot of teams struggle to put it all together in week 1. What is troubling is the Hawkeyes have an experienced quarterback and relative question marks at RB and WR, limping to just 129 passing yards and 139 rushing yards in the season opener. Iowa State has a take-charge offense behind QB Steele Jantz, who completed more than 70 percent of his passes while his defense pitched a shutout for the last 33 minutes of the opener. Where Iowa can make hay is by putting pressure on Jantz—ISU's o-line is weak and he has very little pocket awareness and holds the ball far too long, evidenced by his four sacks Saturday. Iowa's front like can get to the QB, and if Jantz goes down or is shaky, this could be a long day for the Cyclones.
Purdue @ Notre Dame -14.5
This is an Irish team that looked REALLY impressive running the ball Saturday vs. Navy to the tune of nearly 300 rushing yards without suspended starter Cierre Wood. QB Everett Golson looked proficient passing the ball and averaged 8 yards per completion. What was really impressive, though, was that Notre Dame's defense held a Navy offense that averaged nearly 30 points last year to just 10. LB Manti Te'o looked every bit the returning All American, and that's a problem for Purdue, who even though they smoked Eastern Kentucky in their opener, have a young o-line and an easily hurt/shaken QB in Robert Marve. Purdue looked every bit the offensive juggernaut last week but a defense that allowed 450 yards on the road last year remains highly suspect. Purdue is a 14-17-1 road dog against the spread in the last 10 years.
We're shaking off a "what the f---!?" weekend, otherwise known as a college football weekend, and getting back in the saddle again for week 2. As a unit, our pickers Big Tex, Kyle and Marcus went 3-9 on the weekend, but separately, we all went 1-3, so that sounds better. Football lines are a fickle mistress.
On the football tip, the games this upcoming weekend are dogsh-t in terms of matchups, in that there isn't a single throwdown between two ranked teams. There are a few interesting matchups borne of geography or unfamiliarity—Washington heads to LSU, Nebraska to UCLA, Florida and Texas A&M's first matchup as SEC rivals, a USC trip to the East Coast and Penn State's attempt to right the ship against Virginia. Let's take a look at this week's interesting lines:
Penn St. @ Virginia -10
Air Force @ Michigan -21
Miami @ Kansas State -7
Michigan State -23.5 @ CMU
USC -26.5 @ Syracuse
Purdue @ Notre Dame -14.5
Fresno State @ Oregon -34
Iowa State @ Iowa -4
Washington @ LSU -23.5
New Mexico @ Texas -37.5
Florida @ Texas A&M -2
Nebraska -5 @ UCLA
Oklahoma State -13.5 @ Arizona
Notes: Michigan opened yesterday at 21.5, just some adjustments, or is Vegas already losing confidence in Big Blue?... K-State stood tall against UM in Florida on a late drive last year, and looked stout in the running game last week...Michigan State hasn't had an easy time with Central, losing in '09, but the Chips looked really bad opening weekend...Anyone who saw USC last weekend knows to get that -26.5 now, because it's only going to rise...Can Notre Dame avoid a hangover from Ireland?...Fresno's passing game was on point last week, with Derek Carr completing at a 80 percent clip...Iowa State's offense is going to be a problem for Iowa, no two ways about it...UW's run game is not where it needs to be vs. LSU, gaining just north of 100 yards last week...If Texas loads up on the run, UNM will have to go to the air, and that's a problem for the Lobos, who managed just 70 passing yards last week...A&M starts its SEC slate without a week 1 tune up against La. Tech...Nebraska's Taylor Martinez set passing records last weekend, and now gets a shot at a UCLA defensive backfield that struggled at times against Rice last week...Oklahoma State covered a 62 pt. spread against Savannah State last week.
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