We stand together today on the edge of the void—just more than 48 hours separate us from kickoff on Thursday. TNG is planning on having an active presence this weekend on here and our @thenittygriddy Twitter handle. Marcus Reath is off to Boise St. @ MSU, while yours truly is trying to work out a trip to Berkeley to watch UNR play Cal. We shall see, but now let's head down to the land of Chik-fil-A and George Wallace.
Tennessee -3 @ NC State
Tennessee is a mess going into this game—star WR Da'Rick Rogers was just suspended, coach Derek Dooley is perilously close to the abyss, and the fan base is in an uproar. That's not a good way to go into the Wolfpack's den, where they are 14-9-1 against the spread as home dogs in the last 10 years. NC State also brings in a very experienced O-Line to protect QB Mike Glennon and one of the most highly touted defensive backfields in America. Tennessee has a mean–looking defense, and NC State's running game isn't the type that can keep a lot of heat off of Glennon. This is an interesting matchup.
Clemson -3.5 @ Auburn
The tussle between the Tigers might be a little toothless this year, with Clemson's star WR Sammy Watkins suspended for the opener and Auburn's star C Reese Dismukes sidelined due to disciplinary reasons. Auburn has been struggling with suspensions all summer—and it feels like this could be a lost season, despite their massively talented and experienced roster. Clemson, meanwhile, is deep in the offensive backfield, where QB Tajh Boyd and RB Andre Ellington were All-ACC last season. Clemson also has a deep LB unit, which can contain a developing Auburn run game and force the Bayou Bengals' QB Kiehl Frazier to lean on his uninspiring WRs. Clemson is lousy on the road against the spread, though.
Here we are, at the outset of week one of the college football season. The air seems just a little clearer, the sun a little brighter, and everything's just a touch more violent. Boys and men from my city, general region or state are about to strap on helmets and run into boys and men from your city, general region or state for everyone's amusement and their neurologist's future financial benefit. Let us rejoice.
MSU -6.5 vs. Boise St.
On Friday night the boys in green take on the Broncos in the friendly confines of East Lansing. The Spartans are a bit of a mystery on offense heading into this season, as the O-line and running backs represent 90-plus percent of the returning starts. QB Andrew Maxwell gets his first shot against a re-tooled Boise front 7 and a familiar defensive backfield. Joe Southwick steps in at QB for the Broncos—a position they haven't had to fill for the last four years while riding the outstanding Kellen Moore through the WAC. Bronco Nation says their team doesn't rebuild, they reload, and we'll see how accurate that is when Southwick steps in behind a mostly new O-line vs. the Spartans' vaunted front four.
Notre Dame -17 vs. Navy (Dublin, Ireland)
Irish eyes might smile, but I'm f&%$ing not, because this game kicks at 6 a.m. PST Saturday. That's a lousy thing to do to fans on the first Saturday of the college football season, because OBVIOUSLY, I'm not going to sleep in and if I want to bet it I have to get down on Friday night. Ugh. ANYWAY, I felt a lot more confident about the Irish covering yesterday before junior running back Cierre Wood was suspended for the overseas contest. Add that to the fact that the Irish are 2-3 in the last 5 years vs. the Midshipmen and you can see why someone would be just a bit antsy about that big of a spread. That said, new ND QB Everett Golson has the elusiveness that could make this a nightmare day for the undersized Navy D.
Western Michigan at Illinois -10.5
The Illini come in with an improving and more experienced defense to find good field position for dual-threat QB Nathan Scheelhaase. They'll face a Broncos team that led at halftime vs. Illinois last year before getting outplayed by the Illini O in the 2nd. WMU QB Alex Carder is an animal and will have plenty of time to find his targets behind an experienced O-line. WMU is woeful in road openers, but the Illini are 52-63 against the spread in the role as home favorites all-time—something to think about.
Michigan vs. Alabama -12.5 (Dallas, Texas)
Come along with me, won't you, to JerryWorld in Dallas, where the two most arrogant fan bases in sports will come to spout flecks of relish and mustard at one another while arguing over all manner of sports and socioeconomic nonsense. I'm just beside myself over not being amongst this gathering of genius and modesty. But I digress... Vegas wants you to bet on Michigan, and friends I've talked to say maybe you should. The line moved from -11 to -12.5 in the last five days—a good indicator money has been coming in on 'Bama and the book is trying to move action to the UM side of the ledger. Michigan's a bit of a mystery on offense—all the pieces are there, but they've just never played together before outside of Robinson and most of his offensive line. 'Bama brings back a whole new secondary, wideout corps and generally re-worked linebacking unit. That said, the Tide O, led by QB AJ McCarron and maybe the best O-line in the country could have a field day with a still-understaffed UM D, especially now that standout DT Mike Martin is gone. Robinson won't need more than an inch against this 'Bama D, so look for a shootout in Dallas. When I was thinking about this UM-Bama line after it moved, I thought I would stay for some of that Meatloaf...errr, Wolverine.
In exactly five days toe will meet pigskin to kick off the 2012 FBS College football season, and we'll be there every step of the way until someone (please God NOT Nick Saban) lifts the crystal football on a January night in Miami.
This year, you'll notice a few changes with TNG. Change is a good thing, but to avoid a situation like this, I'll explain:
“You know, you alright, sheriff. A straight-shooter. You hate what you fear, and you fear what you don’t understand. Hell, the way it oughta be!”—Early Cuyler First, because you asked for it, we'll be compiling all of our Friday picks onto a spreadsheet which we'll post once the games wrap up that weekend. It'll be a good way to hold our pickers accountable to you, and for you to see if you can make money with us or just enjoy the pigskin banter. Second, we're going to be much more immersed in social media this season. Follow us daily on Twitter at @thenittygriddy, where we'll be tweeting throughout the week and at any games we're attending or watching. Also, follow our Facebook page at http://www.facebook.com/pages/The-Nitty-Griddy for all of our posting updates here as well as interactive polls. Finally, and this isn't a change, but we're committed to bringing you the best betting analysis for the college football season. If you see anything you think we can improve on, let us know in the comments section here. Since we've got a short week with kickoff coming Thursday, let's take a look at the lines on the games we're keeping an eye on this week: South Carolina -7 @ Vanderbilt Washington State @ BYU -13 Tennessee -3 @ NC St. Boise St. @ Michigan State -6.5 Notre Dame -17 vs. Navy (Dublin, Ireland) Western Michigan @ Illinois -10 Nevada @ Cal -10.5 Colorado -6 @ Colorado St. Wyoming @ Texas -30 Hawaii @ USC -40 Michigan @ Alabama -12.5 SDSU @ Washington -14.5 Notes...Wazzou will be interesting to watch under new coach Mike Leach, should give that offense a boost with the weapons available (Jr. WR Marquess Wilson, 1st TM Pac-12)...Tennessee opened as a larger favorite before WR Da'Rick Rogers' suspension...Wow, Boise brings back so little up front on both sides of the ball (3/4 DL graduated), have to wonder how they'll contain Spartans' experienced line play...Now that ND has named So. Everett Golson starting QB, that line will probably move up...-40 looks gaudy for USC, but Hawaii returns just 2/7 along defensive front, and with Trojans' addition of Silas Redd, this could be painful for Warriors...'Bama's line opened at 11 and is widening, so Vegas is trying to push money toward UM. Might be a smart investment to take the Wolverines...SDSU brings an experienced set of DBs against UW's Keith Price, who went for 700+yards passing in his last two games last season. Hold onto your seats...
After a less-than-thrilling battle the first time around, and a slew of losses by other national contenders, we arrive at tonight's BCS national title game, a rematch between undefeated LSU and the 1-loss Crimson Tide of Alabama.
The two met in November when LSU squeaked past 'Bama in Tuscaloosa, 9-6. Tonight's game is back in Bayou country at the Superdome. The line on the game is Alabama -2.5, with an over/under of 40.5 at last check.
The disappointment of ending up at a rematch of two conference foes—one of whom (Alabama) who obviously did not win their own division—is palpable amongst everyone who doesn't live in a state where "FEMA" is an accepted source of income. But, here we have it, and the game is fascinating for bettors.
Will LSU's decision to start Jordan Jefferson—unavailable in the first matchup—and spell him with Jarred Lee allow the Tigers to put more points on the board? Will Alabama overcome its atrocious special teams play and capitalize on good field position? Will someone besides the kickers score in this game?
And that over/under. It's so freaking tempting to take a hard look at the under, after all, both teams accounted for a grand total of 15 points in November. There's a lot to contemplate in tonight's matchup, and here's what the staff of TNG think about the season's penultimate test.
We hope 2012 is starting out well for all our loyal TNG readers and also that you took the over in those games last night. Now if only we could see the next round of match-ups, oh wait that's not how it works. Don't you just hate how the college football season ends? I digress. Today we take a look at the Sugar and Orange Bowls.
Marcus Says...
SUGAR BOWL
Michigan -3 vs. Virginia Tech
O/U 51.5
Now I'm not looking to continue my BCS bashing here, but you know the powers that be are hoping both of these teams show up in this one. Michigan benefited from not playing in the B1G title game and received an at-large bid over an MSU team they lost to in the regular season. Virginia Tech was invited over the likes of Boise State, despite losing twice to Clemson this past season. With that being said, has there been a better story than Michigan this year? Brady Hoke took over a program that had lost it's mojo under Rich Rodriguez and balanced the offense while shoring up the defense in one season. Pretty impressive. Denard was inconsistent as a passer at times, but had another strong year on the ground rushing for 1163 yards. The wear and tear of the season was less of an issue thanks to the emergence of Sophomore Fitzgerald Toussaint, who had a 1000+ rushing season as well. The Wolverine defense returned to the upper echelon yielding only 317.6 yards and 17.2 points per contest. The UM offense will face an equally stout Hokie defense who maintained their status as a premiere defensive program. Va Tech gave up a mere 313.9 yards and 17.2 points per game. The Va Tech offense is led by ACC player of the year RB David Wilson who 1627 yards and 9 TDs on the ground. Sophomore QB Logan Thomas had a strong year statistically, but the fans in Blacksburg will tell you they're still waiting for that breakout year. I expect a defensive game (take the under) and Michigan covering the spread.
ORANGE BOWL
Clemson -3 vs. West Virginia
O/U 61
Offensive firepower should be the story in the Orange Bowl Wednesday night. We've written extensively on this blog about both QBs in this game. Junior signal caller Geno Smith threw for just under 4000 yards for the Mountaineers this season, while keeping the turnovers down. While Clemson was led by Sophomore Tajh Boyd who was once considered a Heisman contender. Clemson coach Dabo Swinney would love to cap off the year with a BCS victory after winning their first ACC title in 20+ years. West Virginia earned their bid after they seemed to be a lock to get the Big East bid earlier in the year. WVU is 2-0 in BCS bowls and is riding a 3 game winning streak. Expect a high scoring affair with the defense that is able to force the key turnover winning the game. I'm taking the explosive Clemson Tigers to cover and the over.
Happy New Year TNG nation. Over the next few days we'll be rolling out our BCS Bowl picks, starting with the Grandaddy of the all and the showdown in the desert tonight. You're essentially going to see four of the top 10 quarterbacks and offenses in the nation in tonight's games, so get ready for some fun and put your money down on the over.
Kyle says...
ROSE BOWL Wisconsin vs. Oregon -4.5 O/U 73 Go out and bet the over right freaking now. Both teams are averaging about 45 ppg and get up and down the field in a hurry. Both defenses struggled at times against competent offenses (UW vs. MSU and UO vs. USC) and will have a hard time keeping up with the other's high-flying attacks. Wisconsin is considerably better defensively, but they haven't seen an attack as quick or as varied as the Ducks' this season, especially in the lead-footed B1G. Similarly, Russell Wilson and Montee Ball provide a very competent two-pronged attack that could pound away at the Ducks' defense long enough to open up a bomb to WR Nick Toon downfield. I look for the Badgers to cover in a close loss.
FIESTA BOWL Stanford vs. Oklahoma Sate -5 O/U 75 Here's another matchup where neither team has problems putting points on the board. The question is, which defense is going to get a key stop when it counts? At first blush the Cardinal have the more impressive defensive unit, but they haven't done it against anyone of note outside of Washington and QB Keith Price, who is more of a runner. OSU's Brandon Weeden is the essence of a downfield thrower, averaging 11.4 yards per completion, even moreso than Oregon's Daron Thomas (7.89 yards) and USC's Matt Barkley (7.9 yards), both of whom caused huge headaches for the Cardinal this season. Andrew Luck is going to be a handful for the Cowboys' defense for sure, but they've held their own against the likes of Oklahoma's Landry Jones and Baylor's RGIII. Look for Weeden to find WR Justin Blackmon early and often to shred the Stanford secondary. OSU covers easily.
Here we are. The (effective) last week of games in the regular season. Get ready to get down on a slate of games this weekend that includes bigtime matchups in the SEC, B1G, BIG 12 and yes, even the ACC. As a point of order, Marcus made his Ohio—NIU pick well before kickoff; I just took forever to post it. Onto the picks...
Marcus says...
Michigan State +10 vs. Wisconsin (in Indianapolis) The inaugural Big Ten Championship game is a rematch of the thriller that was the October 22 contest in East Lansing. That game ended with a Spartan W, thanks to a last second hail mary from Cousins to Nichol. MSU got all the breaks in that game and their defense had trouble containing Russell Wilson and the Badger offense. Wiscy ended up losing two straight, but finished the season strong to earn a Big Ten Leaders division title and a berth in the title game. Montee Ball has been terrorizing defenses, with 11 TDs in the last 4 games. Kirk Cousins and B.J. Cunningham keep cementing their places in Spartan history and will need to put some points up on the board. This is going to be a tough game for Sparty, but they win if they can control the ball and keep the Badger offense off the field. I’m taking MSU and the points.
Virginia Tech -7 vs. Clemson (in Charlotte) The ACC title game gives Va Tech another shot at a Clemson team that handed them their only loss of the season. We’ve written a lot about Coach Dabo Swinney’s Tiger team, who have gone from National Championship contention to losing 3 of 4. Clemson was exposed against Georgia Tech and QB Tajh Boyd hasn’t been the same since. The Hokie defense blanked Virginia last wek and isn’t look to help Boyd get his groove back. Expect Logan Thomas and Va Tech to have a good day and cover the spread.
Northern Illinois -3.5 vs. Ohio (in Detroit) The MAC title game at Ford Field pits the high flying Northern Illinois offense against a very balanced Ohio squad on Friday night. Last season the Huskies came into the game behind star QB Chandler Harnish ranked in the Top 25 and expected to roll through Miami (OH). The Redhawks ended up upsetting NIU and the Huskies have been itching to get back to the title game ever since. Ohio is led by sophomore QB Tyler Tettleton (yes Detroit Tiger fans, that’s Mickey’s kid) who does it all for the Bobcats when it comes to scoring. Tettleton has thrown for 26 TDs and ran for 8 more. Ohio will try to slow the game down, but won’t be able to. I’m taking NIU to cover.
Cincinnati -9 vs. UConn Nobody is cheering harder for Cincinnati than West Virginia in this one. With a Bearcat win, there will be a three way tie atop the Big East between WVU, Cincy and Louisville. Based on rankings, the Mountaineers would be headed to the BCS. QB Zach Callaros knows that his team isn’t headed to the BCS, but at this point a share of the Big East title would feel good after a disappointing 4-8 campaign last season. UConn has been largely inconsistent and hasn’t won two games in a row all season. RB Lyle McCombs has had a stellar freshmen year, but this season won’t end on a positive note. They’ll be partying in Morgantown (think burning couches) on Saturday night after Cincy wins and covers the spread.
Kyle says...
UCLA @ Oregon -31 Is it basketball season yet? UCLA's humiliation won't be forgotten until March, as it's scheduled to be nationally televised tonight. Look for Oregon to take out a lot of unchecked agression on the wallowers from Westwood. Ducks cover.
UNLV @ TCU -38.5 Vegas knows this team well. Look for TCU to make a statement as they emphatically grab their first MWC title—with Boise State in the league—tomorrow. Frogs cover.
Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State -3.5 OSU is plain better than OU this year, but I'm not quite sure how much better. Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon prevail in a shootout, but OU covers.
Georgia vs. LSU -13 (in Atlanta) Ugga is hot, on a 10 game win streak... but nobody is hotter than the boys from the Bayou. LSU covers in what'll likely be a blowout considering Georgia's wins have come against teams with the consistency and polish of dogshit.
Posts
