Week 14: The Picks are in!

By Kyle Magin
Going to be in attendance at the Nevada-Boise State game today with a share of the Mountain West title on the line and the last chance of seeing this pretty good rivalry for a while as the Broncos have decided to board the Titanic Big East. There are all sorts of great games today, so if it's shitty weather where you are, bundle up on the couch and grab your remote. Follow me at @kmagin50 on Instagram for some pics from the game.

Kyle says...
Last week: 2-2
This season: 25-18-1

Texas @ Kansas State -11
Texas looked anything but convincing in their loss to TCU, and I still think this is a rudderless ship. Optimus Klein, however, is making his last push for the Heisman that national pundits are seemingly more comfortable giving to Johnny Football, so I'd look for KSU to really step on the gas early. Wildcats cover. 

Boise @ Nevada +8.5
As I said, the Broncos line up today with a chance at a share of the Mountain West title on the line. There's nothing the Wolfpack and its faithful followers would love better than to sneeze in smurf soup as Boise heads for the exit, so look for a wild crowd in a nationally televised game. I'm not sure the Pack have enough to win—Boise specializes in limiting your possessions—but I think Chris Ault has enough to be great. Wolfpack cover. 

Alabama -7.5 vs. Georgia +7.5 (Atlanta)
Aaron Murray is by far the better quarterback than A.J. McCarron in the SEC title game in the Georgia Dome. But, I'd give the nod to Nick Saban's defense in preparing for the Dawgs. Bama's offense will go into management mode and win, but Georgia covers. 

Nebraska -3.5 vs. Wisconsin
Nebraska's offense is just so, so much more dynamic than Wisconsin's. The Badgers get bucked and Nebraska covers. 

Week 13: The picks are in!

By Kyle Magin

We're here at the end of things, this woefully short regular season. League titles have been sewed up or are about to be culminated, berths to lucrative bowls are on the line, and for the first time in 24 seasons, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish are standing on the precipice of a national title berth. Let's get to the day's slate, shall we?

Kyle says...

Last week: 1-3

This season: 23-16-1

Michigan @ Ohio State -4

The Buckeyes are playing angry this season, and I've every reason to expect that deadbeat father excellent motivator Urban Meyer is ready to test Michigan's line play on both sides of the ball. This will mean a lot of pressure on Devin Gardner/Denard Robinson in the pocket, and that hasn't worked so well for Michigan this year. The Buckeyes cover the spread.

Oregon @ Oregon State +10

The Beavers have been very solid on both sides of the ball this year and control time of possession very effectively. With Oregon's many injuries and limited possessions to work with, Oregon State beats the spread in a knock-down drag-out. (though maybe not the Ducks)

Florida @ Florida State -7

Word has it Jimbo Fisher is looking around for a new job, and when that happens, coaches tend to have their mind set on making a great impression and get their team ready accordingly. With Florida's Jeff Driskel hurting but playing, look for FSU's fearsome D-Line to bring down the hammer early and often in an attempt to knock him out. Florida State covers. 

Notre Dame -6 @ Southern Cal

I don't buy that USC will be even comparable offensively without Matt Barkley at the helm. Their defense will see way too much of the field in ND's coronation tonight. The Irish cover. 

Big Tex says...

Last week: 4-2

This season: 20-17

Illinois @ Northwestern -19. 

Wildcats cover. 

Florida +7 @ Florida State

Gators beat the spread. 

Air Force @ Fresno State -16.5

Fresno covers. 

Idaho @ Utah State -37

USU covers. 

Virginia @ Virginia Tech -9.5

Hokies cover. 

Oregon @ Oregon State +10
Beavers beat the spread. 

Week 12: The picks are in!

By Kyle Magin

Kyle says...

This season: 22-13-1

Last week: 2-1-1

Oklahoma -12 @ West Virginia

The Sooners get all over a WVU defense that hasn't been able to stop far inferior offenses all year. Sooners cover. 

USC -4 @ UCLA

As much as UCLA has come on this season, you're going to see one fully formed offense run by USC and one still at its early stages for the Bruins in the Rose Bowl today. U of Spoiled Children covers. 

Ohio State +2 @ Wisconsin

Braxton Miller can make things happen after plays break down, and I don't believe in the second and third levels of this Wisconsin defense enough to trust them when that happens. OSU beats the spread. 

Stanford @ Oregon -20

The Ducks can smell their berth to the title game now, and Stanford will be another in a long line of victims along the way. Oregon covers. 

Big Tex says...

This season: 16-15

Last week: Idle

Kent State +3 @ Bowling Green

Washington -20 @ Colorado

Clemson -16.5 @ NC State

Ole Miss +19 @ LSU

Kansas State -12.5 @ Baylor

Stanford +20 @ Oregon

Week 11: The picks are in!

By Kyle Magin

This season: 20-12
Last week: Idle

Northwestern +8.5 @ Michigan
Vegas wants you, badly, to bet on Michigan, tightening the line up by a full point in the last day. If they play mistake-free football, Michigan covers easily. But, when's the last time they played mistake-free football? Take Northwestern to beat the spread. 

Texas A&M @ Alabama -14
I believe in Johnny Manziel. I just believe in Nick Saban a whole lot more. The Tide D-line minimizes Manziel's scrambling ability and leave a doable job for an unusually shaky Tide defensive backfield. Alabama covers. 

Oregon State +4 @ Stanford 
The battle for the Pac 12 North is a slugfest, but Oregon State keeps any margin of victory razor-thin in Palo Alto tonight. The Beavers beat the spread. 

Kansas State -6.5 @ TCU
Colin Klein and the Cats cover. 

Week 11: We're baaaack

By Kyle Magin

Wow, been awhile. It's nice to see you again. I missed you. Let's reacquaint ourselves in a comfortable manner. 

There. We're back at it, so what say we dive into a few of this week's key matchups? Hopefully we'll get back to a regular posting schedule this weekend. 

Northwestern @ Michigan -9.5

On the surface this is a very attractive line. Northwestern struggles passing the ball and is really in no shape to get into a shooting match with the Wolverines, who have the superior defense and slightly, although only incrementally, superior passing game. Both rushing attacks are deadly effective. Northwestern's key to closing the gap and covering or potentially winning will be its ability to force turnovers—27 total this season—and Michigan's propensity for losing the ball. That said, if UM gets up early, NW just doesn't have the horses to come back. 

Oregon State @ Stanford -4

Stanford does very little well except stopping you from scoring. Oregon State does that, and QB Sean Mannion excels at finding his targets deep downfield to hurt you. He's a gunslinger, with 8 TDs and 8 INTs, but does as good a job as anyone in the country of moving his team into scoring position. 

Texas A&M vs. Alabama -14

Alabama, in due deference to Denard Robinson, has not seen a quarterback with the skill set and accuracy of A&M's Johnny Manziel. Manziel, though, has seen defenses slightly below Alabama's lofty stature—LSU and Florida—and fared pretty poorly. The key for Alabama will be containing the edges and making Manziel beat you with his arm. He can do that, but it limits his fantastic ability to create on the run, and I'd never bet against a bunch of defensive backs coached by Saban losing more than just a few battles downfield. Manziel goes for 12.4-plus yards per completion, but he can pretty much rule out his fantastic running game getting their usual 250-plus yards per game. If Manziel can find his targets downfield, Alabama's A.J. McCarron will need to find his stride again after stumbling against an arguably comparable defense last week in LSU. He's got a strong running game to keep some of the heat off, but two touchdowns might be outside the realm of possibility if the Aggies can take a shot and stay on their feet. 

Penn State @ Nebraska -4

Penn State is dangerous, and playing spoiler on Nebraska's march toward the B1G title game this weekend. The Lions have struggled against mobile quarterbacks this year, though. 

Week 8: The picks are in! The picks are in!

By TNG Staff

Sorry, another in a string of analysis-free posts. The Tigers are going to the World Series, what can I say? I've been distracted. Let's get to it.

Kyle says...

This season: 17-11

Last week: 2-2

Not the best outcome last week, but you didn't lose money betting with me and you're up on the season.

Nebraska @ Northwestern +7

The Huskers' D has another thing coming if they think they'll shut down the Wildcats attack. Get down to the book and lay the Cats to keep it thisclose, if not win. Northwestern beats the spread. 

BYU @ Notre Dame -13

Robbed of their ability to throw a changeup when freshman QB Taysom Hill went down, the Riley Nelson-led BYU offense won't be able to give the Irish front line enough different looks to hold them off. ND covers easily. 

Stanford -3 @ Cal

Cal has improved since we last covered them here, but never underestimate Tedford's ability to blow a big game. Stanford covers in Berkeley. 

Michigan State +9 @ Michigan

The Spartan offense is pathetic heading into this matchup, and Andrew Maxwell is not ready for prime time. HOWEVAH, this is the best defensive front 7 outside of Alabama that Denard Robinson has seen all year, and we know how well he holds up against the rush. Spartans beat the spread. 

Marcus says...

This season: 12-12

Last week: Idle

After taking a week off, I'm back to get above .500.  Tigers in the Series though?  Life is so good.

Michigan State @ Michigan -9

MSU beats the spread if their offense gets it together.  I'm losing faith.  The Wolverines are due. Michigan covers.  Signed, Pessimistic Spartan fan in Naperville.

Western Michigan @ Kent State -3.5

After last weeks collapse in Muncie it's hard to trust the Broncos on the road.  Flashes cover.

Purdue @ Ohio State -18

The Buckeyes cover.  Braxton Miller for Heisman.

Cincinnati -5.5 @ Toledo 

A North - South Ohio battle at The Glass Bowl.   Cincy may be the tallest midget in the Big Least, but they cover against the Rockets.

Big Tex says...

This season: 12-11

Last week: 0-5

Welp, I have to admit, I was not totally expecting Big Tex to get back in the game after totally bombing every pick he made last week, including the NFL bonus, which does not count against his season record. But he's back for more and still above .500 after an oh-fer, so we'll call it a fluke and see what he has to say this week.

Louisville -6.5 vs. USF

Louisville covers. 

USC vs. Colorado +40.5

Buffs beat the spread.

LSU -3 @ Texas A&M

LSU covers. 

Oklahoma State vs. Iowa State +14

Cyclones beat the spread.

Texas vs. Baylor +11

Baylor beats the spread. 

Georgia -27.5 @ Kentucky

Bulldogs cover.

Oregon State -10 vs. Utah

Beavs cover. 

Rutgers -5 @ Temple

Rutgers covers

NFL Bonus

By TNG Staff

Big Tex took it in the pants yesterday, so he'll try to get back on the horse here.

Green Bay @ Houston -3

Denver @ San Diego +1

Week 7: The picks are in! The picks are in!

TNG staff
Alright, this is the last post I'll short you on analysis for. But, we're your money maker.

Kyle says...
This season: 15-9
Last week: 3-1
We are scorching earth with these picks. If you're betting with TNG, you're way up on the season at this point. Let's take a look at Kyle's picks for this week...

Texas +3.5 vs. Oklahoma (Dallas)
I'm taking the Horns because Landry Jones melts under pressure and the UT DTs can bring it. Texas beats the spread. 

USC -13 @ Washington
SC has too much offense for U-Dub and wins big in a high scoring affair. Trojans cover. 

Fresno State @ Boise State -7
The Broncos' defense has been dominant all year, and FSU has nadda on that side of the ball. Boise covers. 

Stanford @ Notre Dame -7
Chalk again as the Irish D proves too much for the Cardinal, who are traveling to the midwest in October—not the forte of warm weather kids. Irish cover. 

Big Tex says...
This season: 12-6
Last week: 5-1
Big Tex is tearing it up in his first season at TNG.

Kansas State -6.5 @ Iowa State
Wildcats to cover. 

WVU -4.5 @ Texas Tech
Big Tex picks the Mountaineers to cover and picks against his wife's alma mater. We'll let them square that decision.

Oregon State @ BYU -2.5
Cougars cover. 

Texas +3.5 vs. Oklahoma
Horns beat the spread.

Alabama @ Missouri +21.5
Mizzou beats the spread. 

Week 7: Keggs and Bacon

By Kyle Magin

Texas and Oklahoma are forcing us to get up really effing early on the West Coast (8 a.m.!) so I'm going to grouch via video.

That was cathartic, I think. Onto football. We've got a tremendous slate of games involving teams from West of the Mississippi this weekend: Stanford heads to Notre Dame, the aforementioned Red River Shootout, Oregon State and BYU and USC heading up to Seattle.

Texas vs. Oklahoma -3.5 (Dallas) 
UT's defense is not good. Oklahoma is shaky, but WHEN the Sooners get Landry Jones protection, he can find holes in the backfield to the tune of 11.3 yards per completion. He's getting great help from his rush game, but OU, completely logistically, doesn't bother to run all that much. Of course. Texas' offense is solid aside from a pesky penchant for fumbling the ball—8 times so far this season. Its defense has a miserable habit of giving up big plays—opponents managed 13.5 yards per catch against the 1-loss Horns through the first half of the season, and time and again last week West Virginia's receivers got loose for long plays. If Jones can find his receivers, it'll be a long day in the Cotton Bowl, but, few teams get to the passer like Texas' d-ends.

Southern Cal -12 @ Washington
We all know Washington is hapless against the run game. USC has difficulties protecting its quarterback. Watch for SC to try to manufacture some protection for Matt Barkley with Silas Redd and the boys in the run game before going to the air.

Oregon State @ BYU -6
Oregon State is ranked 10th and still getting no love. I understand Provo is no easy place to play, but the Cougars' offense has been so and up and down this season while the Beavers have been rock solid.

Stanford @ Notre Dame -7.5
Big play Ty Montgomery, a receiver for the Cardinal, is likely hurt and out for game in South Bend. That's a problem, because any headway opponents have made this year against the Irish has been through the air. UND strangles opposing offenses, giving up just 39 percent of opposing third down conversions and a minuscule 17 percent of red zone scores as touchdowns. If you get off on the Irish, consider yourself lucky.

Week 7: Games we're watching

By Kyle Magin
Consumed with a trip to Oakland to watch the Tigers try to sweep the A's in game 3 of the ALDS, you'll get a brief Monday-Tuesday post here.

Texas vs. Oklahoma -3
Can UT bounce back in Dallas after a demoralizing lost last week at home to West Virginia?

Louisville -3 @ Pittsburgh

Fresno State @ Boise State -7.5
Fresno's all-world offenses clashes with an immovable object in the Broncos' D.

Stanford @ Notre Dame -9.5
Best defensive matchup of the day.

South Carolina @ LSU -3
SC is in the title hunt and LSU hasn't convinced in any win since early September.

West Virginia -4.5 @ Texas Tech
How much juice does the Mountaineer offense have left?

Week 6: The Picks are in! The Picks are in!

TNG Staff

I hope you're keeping an eye on TNG and taking our advice this season, because if you are, you're making money. We're a combined 29-23 on the season. I'll let Luda tell you the rest...

Kyle says...

This season: 12-8

Last week: 3-1

Northwestern +3 @ Penn State

The Wildcats offense is too dynamic for the Lions, even on homecoming. NW beats the spread. 

Washington @ Oregon -25

The Duck defense makes the difference in this game. Quack to cover. 

Georgia @ South Carolina -1.5

Georgia's defense has too many holes for the ol' Ballcoach to exploit. Cocks cover. 

West Virginia @ Texas -6.5

The Horns have some pieces on defense, and that's more than W. Va, despite the fireworks. Horns cover. 

Marcus says...

This season: 10-10

Last week: 3-1

Northwestern +3 @ Penn State

UMass @ Western Michigan -16.5

Michigan State -15.5 @ Indiana

Northern Illinois -2.5 @ Ball State

Big Tex says...

This season: 7-5

Last week: Idle

Kansas State -23.5 vs Kansas

Texas -6.5 vs WVU

Ohio State -3.5 vs Nebraska

Mississippi State -9.5 @ Kentucky

Oklahoma -5.5 @ Texas Tech

Clemson -9.5 vs Georgia Tech

Week 6: Just Ducky

By Kyle Magin
Nike's Oregon Duck army circles the wagons in Eugene this weekend when he Dogs come to town, looking for their second straight upset win. SC continues to trot through the desert of dashed expectations, and, oddly, a win over a struggling Utah squad could give them a hand. In Palo Alto, we find out onetime heroes, the Stanford Cardinal, look to get back on top against the once-feared and now-jeered Arizona Wildcats.

Southern California -14.5 @ Utah
SC's defense is relatively stout—giving up just 17.3 points per game against some pretty strong offenses. Leonard Williams is taking care of things up front and putting pressure on opposing offenses while Dion Bailey lurks in the defensive backfield. To almost everyone's surprise, it's the Trojan O led by QB Matt Barkley letting the U of Spoiled Children down. Barkley's completing just 55 percent of his passes and the offense is miserable on third down. Utah's Star Lotulelei and co are shutting opposing offenses down on third zone and in the red zone. The Utes offense can't put up any points, though.

Washington @ Oregon -24
What's there to say? The Ducks are 24 point favorites because their defense is starting to shut people down, and their offense outscores opponents 91-19 in the first quarter. The Duck D shuts down opposing offenses in the red zone, where they only manage to score TDs 30 percent of the time and convert on third downs just 25 percent of the time. Ho-hum for the O, where Oregon rushes for 6 yards per carry and does all sorts of wild things through the air. The Huskies are Giant Killers because Keith Price and company continue to win the time of possession battle and have minimized turnovers.

Arizona @ Stanford -9
Stanford plays defense!

Week 6: Two go in, one comes out

By Kyle Magin
Three games down south this weekend feature undefeated teams facing off against one another in a cage-match like scenario: Only one leaves with its record unblemished. Prepare accordingly.

Georgia @ South Carolina -2
Go ahead and open another tab and light up the Rocky theme song while you read this. I'll wait. Georgia goes into South Carolina at 5-0 and riding high after a shootout victory over Tennessee last week. The offense is on fire—QB Aaron Murray is making pretty good decisions with the ball and RBs Todd Gurley and Keith Marshall are blowing defenders away to the tune of 8 yards per carry. The defense, charitably, though, looks like shit. That's in stark contrast to SC, who has its own all-world running back in Marcus Lattimore and a defense that holds opposing offenses to less than 300 yards per game, 27 percent on third down conversions and 25 percent on red zone touchdowns. Simply put, it's hard to sustain drives against DL Ja'Daveon Clowney and Co. I think this game comes down to SC's ability to shut down a dangerous Georgia offense, because they'll likely have success against a team that gave up nearly 5 yards per rush last week.

West Virginia @ Texas -7
Sure, Texas has stars on its defense—Jackson Jeffcoat, Alex Okafor, Kenny Vaccaro—but as a team, the defense is at best suspect. That's not exactly where you want to be going against Mr. 20 TD HEISMAN WINNER HOPEFUL Geno Smith and his immensely talented receivers, Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey. Smith is currently the most efficient quarterback in college football with an 83.4 percent completion rate while piloting the offense with the highest total yardage, yardage per catch and passing touchdown total in the nation. But his defense is a joke, and UT has been nothing short of stellar on offense. QB David Ash is completing passes at a 77 percent rate and getting loads of support from his multi-faceted run game. We've said it here before and we'll say it again, teams utilizing their run game to win the time of possession put the game's math in their favor. Add in the slight home field advantage Texas gets and a few plays from its defensive stars and it could be a rude welcome to Austin for the Mountaineers.

LSU -3 @ Florida
In the past, LSU has been able to bully Florida with a superior rushing game. In this year's edition, though, the Gators come in with a run game and defense more than holding their own nationally—ranked 20th and 10th, respectively. The Tigers get the nod on offense, if only slightly, because Florida's pass game is still such a shambles right now. Zach Mettenberger, now a confirmed "Anchorman" fan—seriously, Google 'Zach Mettenberger Ron Burgundy'—hits for 13 yards per pass when he does complete them and has a solid run game to buy him time in the pocket. Florida's RB Mike Gillislee must seize the initiative and continue to gain close to 6 yards per carry to keep the Gators in business inside what's sure to be a raucous Swamp atmosphere.

Week 6: Bangarang

By Kyle Magin
Week 6 is going to be intense. Penn State is on a three game winning streak and the undefeated Northwestern Wildcats come to town in what could very well be described as PSU's bowl game. In the Northwest, UW takes its upset-minded show on the road to Eugene, where Oregon knows its one game away from kissing its title hopes goodbye. West Virginia goes on the road to Austin, where Texas' defense is looking for its backbone after a shootout victory last week over Oklahoma State. Down south, Georgia heads up the road to Columbia for its date with the Old Ballcoach and a chance to remain in the national title discussion. Week 6 makes Kyle feel:

RU-FI-OHHHHHHH...

Northwestern @ Penn State -3
Northwestern "QB" Kain Colter is one of football's most dangerous men right now. He actually throws very little, but completes his passes for 8-plus yards, averages 6-plus yards passing and lines up at reciever—where he's good for 14-plus yards per catch. Combine him with actual strong arm QB Trevor Siemian and his 69 percent completion average and you have an electric duo in the undefeated Wildcat offense. Penn State is equally dangerous, though, for different reasons. The 3-2 Nittany Lions swing for the fences—with a depleted roster its their best strategy. They are among the league leaders in going for it on fourth down and fourth down conversions, and their pass game accounts for 60-plus percent of their first downs and almost twice the yardage as they've gained on the ground. Northwestern is weak defensively against the pass—giving up 11.6 yards per catch—and on homecoming, I'd look for the Lions to air it out plenty against NW. But, the Wildcats are good on third down (converting 54 percent of the time), much better than PSU, and I can see them winning time of possession if PSU's pass game falters.

Miami vs. Notre Dame -13.5 (Chicago)
This is an Admiral Ackbar game for the Irish if I've ever seen one. Miami, by all rights, should not be 3-1 and in the driver's seat in the ACC. The Canes blow on defense, have a perplexingly unbalanced offense weighted toward passing and are getting stomped out by nearly 10 MINUTES PER GAME in time of possession. The only thing floating this goddamn roster is QB Stephen Morris and his nine passing touchdowns and 320-plus yards per game passing. Therein lies the rub for the Irish—for this defense's many strengths and accomplishments, they have not been tested against a good passing team. Manti Te'o and co are adept at putting pressure on opposing passers and minimizing the time their DBs are forced to cover opposing receivers. If Morris can use his legs to extend that time frame we could see the ND corners tested, something that hasn't really happened yet. The Irish have 14 sacks, though, in their undefeated start. And, they're winning time of possession by a little more than two minutes and RBs Cierre Wood and George Aktinson are grabbing big yards in limited carries while Theo Riddick remains the unit's workhorse.

Nebraska @ Ohio State -3
Nebraska's sole loss came on the road this season, while the undefeated Buckeyes have been shaky but are getting the job done. A big reason for that is the work of their experienced offensive line, which is getting the Buckeye backs a huge push to work with—and they're taking advantage of it to the tune of 5.1 yards per rush. You put up those kind of numbers and you're going to own the line of scrimmage—something Nebraska's D isn't giving up without a fight, holding opponents to less than 3.5 yards per carry. I think this might come down to T. Magic—Nebraska QB Taylor Martinez—and his big-play ability. He's passing for nearly 13 yards per completion—good enough to negate any time of possession advantage gained by the Buckeyes' Braxton Miller, who is still a suspect passer.

Week 5: More picks!

By Kyle Magin

Again, you just want the picks, let's get to it.

Kyle says...

Season Record: 9-7
Last Week: 3-1

UCLA -20 @ Colorado
UCLA covers. 

Texas -2.5 @ Oklahoma State
Texas covers. 

Georgia @ Tennessee +14
Tennessee to cover. 

Wisconsin @ Nebraska -11.5
Nebraska to cover.

Week 5: The picks are in!

Shortened version again this week, but the picks are what you really want any way. Here we go...

Marcus says...

Season Record: 7-9
Last Week: 1-3

Indiana @ Northwestern -11

Take the Wildcats to cover in Evanston.

Central Michigan @ Northern Illinois -10

The Chips played well at Iowa last week, but the letdown is coming in DeKalb. Take the Huskies to cover.

Ohio State +2.5 @ Michigan State

Take the Buckeyes and the points.

Toledo @ Western Michigan -1.5

Take the Broncos to cover under the lights at Waldo.

Week 5: Get ya Horns up

By Kyle Magin
Let's go to Mobilehoma, on purpose. It's OK, the locals are out fisting for fish. Don't ask. We'll follow the Longhorns up to the land of sad Indians and T. Boone Pickens. For some reason America's asshole Oklahoma produces some pretty good college football quarterbacks. Like the 2011 edition of Landry Jones and Brandon Weeden. And the 2012 edition of Landry Jones and Wes Lunt. Wait, lome again? (see what I did there?)

Central Plains REPRESENT!

Texas -2.5 @ Oklahoma State
The Longhorns go into Stillwater looking to avenge three straight losses to the Pokes, who've had their number lately. This isn't the 2010 (Thank God) or the 2011 edition of the Horns, though. The defensive line is the fiercest in the nation, and ends Alex Okafor and Jackson Jeffcoat are letting exactly nothing past them. QB David Ash is playing above everyone's expectations, completing 76-plus percent of his passes for nearly 13 yards per hookup. There's some question about whether or not OSU can make Ash uncomfortable in the pocket given the fact his second leading rusher—Joe Bergeron—is likely out for the game. Likely, all is not well on the UT defense, where linebacker Jordan Hicks is likely out and the defensive secondary has given up a glut of huge plays already. I'll guarantee Mike Gundy is going after  UT DB Carring Byndom. But, I'm not sure he has the tools to do it. Lunt and J.W. Walsh have looked pretty pedestrian after a big opening win over BCS punching bag Savannah State and are coughing the ball up often. Texas is +6 in turnovers, and if they can win that battle Saturday, it'll be a long night for the Cowboys.

Virginia Tech -6.5 @ Cincinnati 
Blacksburg plays host to two teams who have designs on conference titles late in the nonconference season. The undefeated Bearcats looked great against a then-sorry looking Pittsburgh team in their opener before coasting against Delaware. Not much can be gleaned from Cincy yet except that QB Munchie Legaux has one of the cooler names in college football. He's got accuracy problems and is a string bean, but does himself favors by overthrowing the defense when he's off and scrabling well out of the pocket when pressure is closing in. They'll need a big game from him Saturday if he's going to hold off a strong Tech defense. The 3-1 Hokies lost to Pittsburg, the common opponent, but it was a much different Panthers team than when Cincy saw them. Hokies QB Logan Thomas has been miserable this season, completing just a hair over half of his passes and taking eight sacks against some subpar competition. If Cincy can mount any sort of rush, it could tilt the time of possession in the Bearcats favor, giving them more possessions to work with and greater chance of putting more points on the board. Math!

Toledo @ Western Michigan -1.5
Saddle up Waldo, the Rockets are coming. Will Toledo expose the Broncos' one-dimensional offense and drop extra defenders into coverage, forcing WMU to win by rushing the ball, something they've proven they can't do? Even with the addition of former MSU G John Deyo, WMU just cannot get a push running the ball, and Toledo does have a time of possession advantage on opponents this season. That said, Toledo can't run the ball any better, and while QB Terrance Owens is surely WMU QB Alex Carder's superior when it comes to completions and yards per completion, Carder wins out when it counts, leading his team more effectively in the red zone (where the Bronco score 68 percent of the time to the Rockets' 50 percent) and per-game passing yardage. Neither defense has been spectacular, but I'd give the slight edge to Toledo.

Week 5: Hello Seattle

By Kyle Magin

Tomorrow, for the second time in a week, the eyes of the American football world turn upon Seattle. The Emerald City's beloved Huskies welcome Stanford's potent defense and running game to CenturyLink Field. I was super psyched about this game and wanted to post for you all a great song about Seattle, a city I've come to love since moving out west, then I found this:

Now I want to wear flannel and bang my head against a wall while listening to grunge.

Stanford -6.5 @ Washington
U-Dub comes into this game with major question marks, and Stanford comes in looking like a defensive juggernaut. Last we saw the Huskies, LSU pancaked them, laying 41 on the dogs and holding the offense to just three rushing first downs and six passing first downs, and eight of the Dogs' 12 drives ended in punts. Since then, they've managed to right the ship slightly with a win over Portland State, improving to 2-1 on the season. Stanford is on a roll at 3-0 and last we saw them, they dethroned the #3 USC Trojans by blanking the Barkley-led boys for the last three quarters of the game. Two USC drives advanced past five snaps, with most ending in three & outs. Opponents convert less than 25 percent of the time on third down against the Cardinal and score touchdowns in the red zone just 44 percent of the time. Stanford Free Safety Ed Reynolds is the best center fielder in football, defending or breaking up 7 passes and intercepting three more. His matchup against Husky QB Keith Price will be one of the more interesting matchups of the night, as Price's passes go for about 10 yards per reception. If he can get a little support from an anemic rush game, he might find space underneath against the Stanford corners and linebackers, and just maybe find something deep. Stanford QB Josh Nunes has some accuracy problems, but goes 12-plus yards when he does complete.

Hawaii @ BYU -27.5
BYU, I've come to find out, is the quintessential button mashing knob you used to hate playing dorm room NCAA football against on that PS2 you spilled the beer on. They pass without consciousness, completing just 57 percent of their throws, but connecting with wideouts for 11.4 yards per grab, though. This is not good for Hawaii, who gives up about 12.6 yards per catch with a weak, young secondary. BYU, though, can go very bad, like QB Riley Nelson did against Boise State last week, leading the Cougs to a whopping 6 points. Hawaii can make up ground with its fairly effective run game and awesome ability to score in the red zone—it happens 91 percent of the time. Head Coach Norm Chow's gameplans are a bitch to deal with, even for a solid defense like BYU's. The Cougs have a solid, solid group of experienced linebackers, though, and Hawaii has very little in terms of receiving, meaning we'll see BYU stack the box and force Hawaii to beat it over the top.

Oregon -30.5 @ Washington State (Seattle)
UO's defense is getting nothing but better, and that's bad news for Wazzou, already losing the time of possession battle by an average of 6 minutes per game. You don't play so much for home runs against the Ducks D as you play for time of possession. It sounds simple, but keeping the ball out of Chip Kelly's offense's hands is the best way to keep things close. With Wazzou giving up third downs at a 49 percent clip, expect to see Ducks QB Marcus Mariota a lot Saturday, which will translate to a lot of points.

Week 5: Bring out your dead.

By Kyle Magin

On Saturday John L. Smith and his Razorbacks head to College Station for their next stop in a season of ass-whoopings. I wonder if they don't feel like this already:

"I'm not dead yet!"
The SEC's most intriguing matchup just might be the Tennessee Volunteers going up against a confident, improving team of Georgia Bulldogs. We'll take a look at 'Bama just cause.

Arkansas @ Texas A&M -14
Whoa-ho-ho, bring your Serta pillows, because this is going to be one hell of a featherweight battle. In this corner, the Arkansas Razorbacks, proud owners of a 1-3 record and a third down conversion percentage of 28 percent! And in the other red corner, with a record of 2-1 with wins against nobody, the Texas A&M Aggies!

"Just fucking ring the bell, you pansy"—Joseph "Blue" Pulaski

Actually, A&M, while playing against inferior opponents, is actually putting together a competent-looking stat line. D-lineman Damontre Moore, with six sacks and eight tackles for loss is wreaking havoc in opposing backfields and is just the kind of player that could force fumbles and injuries of Arkansas backs who are getting exactly no protection from the Hogs offensive line. If the defense can keep the Hogs quiet in the first half its very balanced offense—passing and rushing plays are split nearly 50/50 and both strategies have been effective in the red zone, where the Aggies score at a 91 percent pace—will march on past Arkansas to its first SEC victory.

Tennessee @ Georgia -13
Tennessee heads down Between the Hedges to take on an absolute wrecking ball of a Georgia rushing attack (and pretty good passing attack, too.) The Dawgs' running backs are gaining about six yards per rush and the receivers are pulling in Aaron Murray bombs, averaging 16.2 yards per catch. The real star, though, is linebacker Jarvis Jones, who has tackled or sacked opposing offenses for a total loss of 88 yards. On his own. Add in interception yardage, and Jones has earned the Dawgs about 100 total yards. Tennessee isn't getting much help from its 59th-ranked rushing game, which could put an unreasonable amount of pressure on QB Tyler Bray, who is having a fantastic season but struggled against Florida, the best defense the Vols saw before this weekend's matchup. This is also the 3-1 Vols' first road game, which could spell trouble.

Mississippi @ Alabama -31
Ole Miss will probably get steamrolled.

Midwest Monday: Look who's back in town again

By Kyle Magin

Gameday is coming back to East Lansing Saturday as Ohio State and Michigan State scrap in Spartan Stadium. Let's celebrate:

Man I still think them cats'll play.

Here's the thing, there are some really compelling matchups this week. It's sneaky good. You have the aforementioned B1G opener, The 'Nati and Va. Tech getting together in the nation's capital, the Vols heading in between the hedges and the Horns headed up to Stillwater. Let's get to the games amongst THEY WHO EAT MEAT AND POTATOES.

Ohio State @ Michigan State -3
Both teams come into this game with foul-smelling passing games. The difference is OSU still finds a way to score points—nearly 38 of them per game, as opposed to the Spartans measly 21. OSU's done it against a decidedly easier slate, but still, 4-0 speaks for itself. Last we saw the struggling Spartans, QB Andrew Maxwell's passing game was getting slapped upside the head by Eastern Michigan. They're completing just 57 percent of passes and can't get opposing defenses off Le'Veon Bell's back. They'll have to learn to capitalize through the air in a hurry because the Bucks are vulnerable there—opponents have gained 42 passing first downs against this defense and make up a majority of their offense vs. OSU through the air. IF MSU can continue to play its smothering brand of defense and DE William Gholston is asked to contain and then attack OSU QB Braxton Miller, this could make last year's 10-7 MSU win in the Shoe look like a shootout.

Wisconsin @ Nebraska -13
Just a few weeks ago this line would have seemed outrageous. But now, Wisconsin (3-1) looks lost offensively and are truly missing two graduated first time all-B1G defensive backs on the other side of the ball. The Badger offensive line is getting no push for RB Montee Ball and Co., averaging just 3.1 yards per carry and converting less than a third of third down attempts. The passing game is mired in mediocrity behind new QB Danny O'Brien, and the defense is giving up 245 passing yards per game. Throw enough against the Badgers and something will open up downfield. Nebraska, thankfully for the folks in Madison, still aren't throwing a ton—the Huskers are 66th in the nation in passing yardage, though QB Taylor Martinez has been completing a fairly efficient 70.7 percent of his throws. He's backed up by an incredibly solid run game led by Ameer Abdullah, averaging more than 6 yards per carry. If he can get to the second level on Wisconsin's defense often enough, look for things to open up deep for Martinez.

Minnesota @ Iowa -7
Iowa is a piddly-shit program who may or may not have lost this blogger money in a BLOWOUT LOSS to CENTRAL MICHIGAN last Saturday at Kinnick Stadium. I won't get into much more than a few stats on the 2-2 Hawkeyes—they converted only 30 percent of third downs vs. a MAC defense last week and got beaten 36-23 minutes in time of possession. Playing keep away is an effective strategy vs. these "Forrest's IQ is below this line, Mrs. Gump" Iowa schoolyard defenders. A questionable D-line just isn't getting a push and the defensive backs are continuing last year's tradition of sucking ass. Minnesota, on the other hand, has beaten four solid if not spectacular opponents behind a surprisingly strong D-line, led by D.L. Wilhite and his astounding 4.5 sacks and 5.5 tackles for loss on the young season. Sophomore QB Max Shortell has been an effective shepherd for a middling offense, but if they keep getting stellar defensive help, I like this line as much as any you'll see all week.